2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

[mwillems]

[mwillems]

I'd go Norris M-H and Piastri H-M.

I would be surprised if Piastri started with the Hards… That would make the run to turn 1 and the first lap in general very tricky, he could easily lose positions while the Hards get up to speed / temperature… In a track where overtaking is considered very difficult, losing positions early on the lap could be the worst case scenario

Probably it would take several laps to get the hards working. I'd also not like to see this.

I'd be more inclined to start on softs than hards, but I’m not sure we could make that work and I don't think strategically it would be good, beyond the opening lap opportunities.

[Macklaren]

Great news ... But is it? Is correlation still "bad" if reality is BETTER than simulation? Could just have easily been the other way?

[mwillems]

Great news ... But is it? Is correlation still "bad" if reality is BETTER than simulation? Could just have easily been the other way?

The airflow is likely correlating fine in CFD, the tunnel and the track. The laptime calculation is done via the much less sophisticated Simulator and some maths and this is less of a concern as they can only really be clever estimates.

They may also deliberately work with more Conservative numbers. So I don't think it is correlation.

[Emag]

Laptime predictions are hard to get right because there's too many factors involved.

First of all, it depends what you use as a frame of reference. If you use Max as a frame of reference, then thats a moving target since they managed to get a lot closer to Max at some tracks compared to Bahrain even without the upgrades.

Both in Imola and Miami, RB struggled to get the car in the sweet spot. If we had a dialed in RedBull and the gap was 0.3-0.4s, he would not be saying this.

And secondly, you never know how much laptime you get just by giving drivers a little bit of more confidence going into certain corners.

For a simplified example, If the previous spec car can take corner x flat but the rear feels loose, the drivers will not go flat except for maybe the last lap of Q3. And this of course applies to different corners and conditions (including braking and traction zones).

[SmallSoldier]

I'd go Norris M-H and Piastri H-M.

I would be surprised if Piastri started with the Hards… That would make the run to turn 1 and the first lap in general very tricky, he could easily lose positions while the Hards get up to speed / temperature… In a track where overtaking is considered very difficult, losing positions early on the lap could be the worst case scenario

Probably it would take several laps to get the hards working. I'd also not like to see this.

I'd be more inclined to start on softs than hards, but I’m not sure we could make that work and I don't think strategically it would be good, beyond the opening lap opportunities.

If the additional DF provided by the new package is indeed protecting the tires as I’ve heard, then simply running long and building a tire delta on Mediums may be the best way to go… There is such a long pitlane at Imola that most (if not all) will favor a one-stop… Running soft at the beginning and a very long stint on Hards is a possibility, but I would be surprised if McLaren doesn’t favor a Medium first stint, after the first couple of laps, regardless of position, they will probably build a delta to the car in front 2-3 seconds and protect those tires with the goal of having those behind them pit first, it won’t be even about and undercut, it would be about coming out of a pitstop in free air and hopefully with a tire delta to the car in front.

Regardless, I believe we are in for a fun race (no issues in the first lap aside)… I’m on the camp that is happy to see the team finally putting some pressure at the front, asking for wins (or even WCC as some may have suggested in the thread) is a bit premature… Just knowing that the team is capable to fighting is all I wanted from the season.

[SmallSoldier]

Great news ... But is it? Is correlation still "bad" if reality is BETTER than simulation? Could just have easily been the other way?

The airflow is likely correlating fine in CFD, the tunnel and the track. The laptime calculation is done via the much less sophisticated Simulator and some maths and this is less of a concern as they can only really be clever estimates.

They may also deliberately work with more Conservative numbers. So I don't think it is correlation.

It’s also the additional confidence the car is giving the drivers… The car itself is capable of “X” lap time, if the drivers find balance lacking, instability or simply lack of confidence, that makes them drive the car at a percentage of the car capability (need to drive below the “edge”)… To illustrate it, both Lando and Oscar were capable of driving the car at 95% of the cars pace, going beyond that put them in a position where they could easily make mistakes (like we’ve seeing with Lando in a few Q’s last year), the current iteration allows them to drive the car at 97% of the cars potential… So now we have a car that is capable of X + 0.Y lap time and the drivers adding additional lap time based on confidence.

[mwillems]

Yeah there will be all sorts of things that can't be simulated accurately and things a simulator cant consider, like intangible things such as confidence.

Ultimately the models in Sims are not complex by CFD standards (But do feed from their numbers)and never become totally realistic. Speaking of confidence, its a multi dimensional consideration in sim work. Drivers lacks many of the concerns he might have when driving a £1million car on a track with hundreds of millions watching and a career on the line. You make different decisions because they have different outcomes, including the aspect you mentioned about how much you're willing to push the car over the edge. There's little actually at stake in a Sim.

[SmallSoldier]

Yeah there will be all sorts of things that can't be simulated accurately and things a simulator cant consider, like intangible things such as confidence.

Ultimately the models in Sims are not complex by CFD standards (But do feed from their numbers)and never become totally realistic. Speaking of confidence, its a multi dimensional consideration in sim work. Drivers lacks many of the concerns he might have when driving a £1million car on a track with hundreds of millions watching and a career on the line. You make different decisions because they have different outcomes, including the aspect you mentioned about how much you're willing to push the car over the edge. There's little actually at stake in a Sim.

And most often than not, SIM numbers aren’t provided by the “drivers”… they are provided by the reserve driver or the simulator driver (to add consistency on the data)… The new simulator is better than the one before and I believe McLaren is now using a “driver in the loop” simulator.

But yes, that’s why I expect race pace performance to be better than Q performance… Or put in another way, there will be more gain in race pace than there is in Q… In Q, the drivers will go closer to that edge (and sometimes surpass it), in race mode, it’s more a matter of whether the car will hold a line, lap in lap out… If the car inspires more confidence, the gains in race pace will be larger than in Q

[mwillems]

For sure the pace difference will be bigger in a race, it is tyre delta limited and in corners, to greater or lesser degrees, you are dictated by tyre temps and operating windows. If we put l
5% less energy into the tyres in a particular corner we can push the car more in a race. But by and large drivers are on the edge anyway and tires are less of a limitation over a single lap.

But the stability that underpins the confidence will hopefully reduce mistakes that inevitably cost places on the grid. We'll see today the difference in opportunities in the race for Oscar, and Lando and how much harder it will be for Oscar to challenge 5 drivers for the win instead of the 1 in front that he might have had, including a teammate in identical machinery.

[Gillian]

too late for WCC this year I think. But we have a good shot at jumping Ferrari for P2. At least RBR wont win WCC in Singapore or Qatar or something.

The team should prioritize starting the season strong in 2025. We cant afford to sacrifice the initial flyaway races like this if we are to be in contention for WCC

For sure a better start of the season would help, but there are still 17 races to go!

[Darth-Piekus]

Norris and Verstappen regularly "fight" (or at least fought) in simracing. Verstappen has an edge. I think it is likely he is the best at this point in time.

This does not mean we cannot beat him.

I dont really know whats happening between them at simracing but simulation is just another emulator. It will never be able to replicate the real deal. Nothing suggests that Lando wont turn things around just because he is 2nd on a video game.

[BMMR61]

too late for WCC this year I think. But we have a good shot at jumping Ferrari for P2. At least RBR wont win WCC in Singapore or Qatar or something.

The team should prioritize starting the season strong in 2025. We cant afford to sacrifice the initial flyaway races like this if we are to be in contention for WCC

For sure a better start of the season would help, but there are still 17 races to go!

The results on the board, the progress from Bahrain 2023, uncannily conform to all the team's predictions. 2023 second half - fighting for podiums, 2024 - fighting for wins. Next up, 2025 - fighting for championships. If anything they seem to be ahead of schedule. So in less than 12 months McLaren have progressed from 5th fastest car to arguably 2nd fastest. From a car that was qualifying up to 1.5 off Max to <0.1, let's enjoy it with the ups and downs, they happen.

The car looks more composed and I think the drivers are building new confidence in the platform, the team need to now start taking on a winning mentality. It's a subtle but significant advance from just believing you can win. Likewise, most fans have never seriously raced themselves and underestimate the nuances to taking the steps up that we are seeing.

[FittingMechanics]

I'd go Norris M-H and Piastri H-M.

I would be surprised if Piastri started with the Hards… That would make the run to turn 1 and the first lap in general very tricky, he could easily lose positions while the Hards get up to speed / temperature… In a track where overtaking is considered very difficult, losing positions early on the lap could be the worst case scenario

I'd go Norris M-H and Piastri H-M.

I would be surprised if Piastri started with the Hards… That would make the run to turn 1 and the first lap in general very tricky, he could easily lose positions while the Hards get up to speed / temperature… In a track where overtaking is considered very difficult, losing positions early on the lap could be the worst case scenario

Probably it would take several laps to get the hards working. I'd also not like to see this.

I'd be more inclined to start on softs than hards, but I’m not sure we could make that work and I don't think strategically it would be good, beyond the opening lap opportunities.

We should start to think as a big team. Why should we be worried about Russel or Tsunoda behind Piastri? By going alternate with Piastri he will not be held up by Ferrari (if we end up clearly faster than them) and he would open up a big opportunity if there is safety car. In my opinion, this is well worth the risk as the reward is so high. Worst thing that can happen is that Piastri ends up losing a couple of positions over the race.

But, as I said, the team is quite conservative with their strategies so I don't think we will see that.

[mwillems]

I'm not worried about anyone behind Piastri it was just an opportunity to get him up to 3rd or 4th on lap one, but it depends if the softs work for long enough.

I'd heard several in the paddock suggest the softs can do a good long run stint, but that doesn't make it a good strategy as to use it at the start you'd perhaps pit into traffic.

I'm looking forward to it, it should be exciting. I think that the cars have moved on too and I think overtaking won't be as hard here, but still not easy. The optimum time to take the lead and for Oscar to make places is at the start, but if we can't do it then, we're going to see how much time there is in the car, what pressure we can apply and if Red Bull perform better in the race as they have tended to.

But my thoughts are that we all perform better in the race, so I think it's going to be a good one.