A great F1 passing study (must read!)

[Astro1]

I found the information to be quite interesting that I posted it at my forum.

I wanted to see what the technical take on the matter is.

I found this posted by VCS316 @ thescuderia forums but the originals can be found at the links provided below.

I must say that this is probably the single BEST analysis by ANYBODY on the topic of overtaking and brings up questions of what the "overtaking" group was doing and the FACT that the FIA have done NOTHING but slowly cripple the sport from what it was in the 70s 80s to what it is today.

With next years "cost cuts", "engine equalization", "duffusasori" NO REFULING! etc etc. One has to look at the data and figure that next year will see as much passing as fuel tankers do on the highway which is exactly what the F1 cars will be.

Fuel tankers with giant diffusers. Passing will be interesting and it will also be the death of one and three stop strategies with wear on the tryres and the heavy fuel load making both irrational much less optimal.

[size=large]Credit goes to their members especially Brogan(site founder) & cider_and_toast(super mod)

Thank you both for doing what the FIfrikinA cant seem to figure out behind all that money and greed![/size]

1984 - 1988 (Average passes down from 42 to 31) From a peak of 42 the average number of overtakes per race fell to 31 by the end of 1988. The reason for this could be two fold. Firstly, the controlling of the speeds of turbo charged cars by restricting fuel and turbo boost pressure. This led to more conservative racing where cars would have to back off towards the end of races to avoid running out of fuel. Secondly, in 1987 and19 88 there was a rise in the number of cars using normally aspirated engines and these were way off the pace of the turbo charged cars.

1989 - 1993 (Average passes down from 34 to 25) This period saw the advancement of driver aids. We see a brief spike up to an average of 34 for the 1989 season which is almost certainly due to the leveller of all teams switching to normally aspirated 3.5 litre engines. This was the time when former race-winning teams such as Williams and Lotus were stuck with using Judd engines. By 1993 almost every car on the grid had traction control, ABS, power steering, paddle shift semi-automatic gearboxes and active suspension. Though there were virtually no changes in the rules it was during this period that the technical experts of the haves proved their worth over the have-nots. During this period and the year after, more teams dropped out of F1 than at any other time in the sports’ history.

1994 This year can be taken in isolation since most of the rule changes introduced were as a result of the tragic weekend at Imola. By the end of this year the average overtake per race was down to 18, a reduction of 7 on the previous year and the biggest single drop in the year-on-year average to date.

1995 - 1997 (Average passes down from 17 to 16, with a dip down to 12 in 1996) This is an interesting period because after a further round of safety related rules and a reduction in engine capacity down to 3 litres in 1995, there were no other rule changes until the start of the 1998 season. For some reason though there was a large dip down to 12 for average overtakes in 1996 and the following year the average number of overtakes per race was back up to 17 again.

1998 - 2003 (Average passes up from 13 to 19) The fact that there is a rise in overtaking by the end of this period should not be taken as an improvement. From the average of 17 in 1997, the average number of overtakes fell to 13 by the end of 1998. This was the beginning of the "narrow track" era of F1 which saw narrower cars and the introduction of grooved tyres. Surprisingly, during this period there were very few technical rule changes and by 2002 the average number of overtakes had fallen from 16 in 1999 down to 14. There was another spike in 2003 up to 19 that may have been due to cars qualifying out of position, thanks to the new one lap qualification format.

2004 - 2009 (Average passes down from 16 to 12) This period can best be described as the "cost cutting" era. First and foremost each rule change was made on the primary basis of reducing the cost of running an F1 team. From 2003's average of 19, which was the highest number since 1993, at the end of 2004 it had fallen back to 15. The main rule change was the use of a single engine in a race weekend. In 2005 we see the lowest number of overtakes in the whole period of our data. The failed experiment of no tyre changes at pit stops and yet another round of aerodynamic rules which ironically were supposed to improve overtaking, were coupled with a 1 engine per 2 race rule. For the next 2 years it didn't matter how many rules were brought in, including changes to engine size and capacity and aero packages the number of overtakes were stuck at an average of 16 per race. This fell to 15 for 2008 which may have been cause by the introduction of yet more rules on preserving engine and gearboxes for more races and development freezes. Finally so far this season the average number of overtakes is at 15. Whether this remains at this level given that we are just over halfway through the season remains to be seen. However it is most likely to stay at around the 16 mark, thus proving that the 5 years of persistent rule changes to reduce costs and increase overtaking have actually achieved the sum total of zero.


So what can we see from this?

The greatest increase in the average number of overtakes from one season to the next was 5, between 2002 and 2003.
The greatest decrease in the average number of overtakes from one season to the next was 7, between 1993 and 1994.
During a period of pretty much unchecked technical development from 1989 to 1993 there was a decrease of 9 in the average number of overtakes over the whole period.
During a period of constant FIA rule changes from 2004 to 2008 there was an overall reduction of 1 overtake per race.

Significant increases in average overtakes per season on season have occured after:

1984: Fuel tank capacity reduced
1989 & 2006: Engine capacity changed
1997: No changes
1999: Flexible wings banned
2003: Single lap qualification

Complete analysis available on the following links:

http://www.cliptheapex.com/forum/viewto ... f=51&t=814#

http://www.cliptheapex.com/forum/viewto ... f=51&t=822

[raceman]

I agree!

FIA has really sucked blood out of F1 in these many years. There just isn't the charm of racing at the pinnacle of motorsport, just the lure of glamour and money!!!

FIA started to ban any innovation after some years of introduction just to cut costs - ridiculous. Things will develop through such measures like motorsports into daily life and benefit people. Banning engine development will surely save some bucks, but will not help road cars developing eco-friendly engines and such numerous other things. F1 is called pinnacle of the motorsport, so it should be the showground for new innovations that will eventually come into daily "motor" life that common people will use and in turn will benefit them. Since FIA banning just any "new" thing, it isn't helping much.

As the study suggests, the number of passes have reduced significantly since the stated years. Overtaking surely makes F1 interesting to watch as it "also" depends on driver skills apart from any other aids that the car/driver uses because seizing the right moment (even though with/without driver aids) is ultimately the driver's decision. Just stressing on aerodynamic efficiency doesn't help at all - it won't give birth to innovations!



Many such things can be said about the FIA, but damn, it will fall onto deaf ears! FIA is the governing body of F1 and it will only change if someone radical and radient person takes over as the president and vowes to implement changes to make the sport more interesting. Once this has started, F1 will be THE MOST loved and watched sport in the world! People will get anxious to show new innovations that will aid their team to go forward than the other and these things eventually will benefit common people through other technology adaptation.

Still, I respect FIA on the safety measures they have put through these many years that saved many drivers' lives - hats off to them for safety!





I don't give a damn to FIA in other areas, just f*** off; let the sport be the sport it is and the sport "people" want it should be!!!

[timbo]

I think it is very hard to account for all causes and effects.
Here are few questions - how number of passes correlates to reliability?
How refueling affects passing? AFAIK refueling was banned at 1984, so I'd like to see pre-1984 figures.

[axle]

The counter argument is that the cars are now so advanced and the teams so professional that they have removed the massive swings in performance.

You can't make F1 less professional...and the teams have to work inside the laws of physics...so in reality they should all be reaching a similar conclusion which results in cars of such similar pace that makes overtaking rarer.

IMO the DDD's should stay and the rear wings reduced in ability again.

[Miguel]

I'd love to see Ciro post here with his overtaking histogram. I think that's much better than reading it in text form here. By the way, most rule changes in the first decade in the 21st century came as a way to reduce speeds, not improve overtaking.

Finally, engineers today are able to design cars that are much easier to drive. Easier chassis with a gentler engine is a great recipe for more consistent laptimes. If you put a good driver on it (and similarly good drivers in similarly easy cars), chances are he'll qualify where the car deserves. This means he'll be behind a good driver in a faster (most likely) car and ahead of a good driver in a perhaps slower car. Overtaking chances in that scenario? Almost none.

I personally think that this year odds are high that, if you picked up a driver from this year grid, he'll be better than most from the 1988 grid. Actually, I have doubts that any driver bar Prost and Senna is 0.1s better than more than 2 drivers this year.

[timbo]

I personally think that this year odds are high that, if you picked up a driver from this year grid, he'll be better than most from the 1988 grid. Actually, I have doubts that any driver bar Prost and Senna is 0.1s better than more than 2 drivers this year.

+1

[mike]

consider this. 13 F1 cars with different engines, chassis, handling characteristics etc......
overtaking actually will be quite alot. lets just say 1 car is good at engines and another good at corners. the cars today look nearly all the same... same engine same weight similar wings..
F1 today is like BMW 7 series versing Mercedes S-class and Audi A8 or any other car sector. its the same kind of cars doing same kind of stuff and of coarse they all hav the same characteristics and they all pretty much drive the same. 3 meter wheelbase, same front rear tracks and same tyres and equalised engines, what do u expect?
its not about big or small tanks or aerodynamics. if u have all the cars that look the same i doubt any1 can drive clean through another.
consider an unique design based rule book:
-fwd, smaller engine, lighter car, less wings
-turbo, small fuel tank, heavier car
-4WD, heavier weight and less wings
-kers, larger rear tyre....
more innovation and more challenges in F1, doesnt mean more cost.
F1 can have a cost cap, as long as they have the freedom to design.

[Chaparral]

I must say thats all very interesting but is the majority after 'overtaking' opportunities - I'd say no. My interest in Grand Prix racing goes back many decades and my interest is more focussed on the car configuration and the power plant and the driver himself. We currently have a 'spec' motor in 2.4 litre V8 - innovation isn't in the same sentence - a shame

[xpensive]

I'd say...look who's talking?

http://www.itv-f1.com/Controller.aspx?PO_ID=47125

[Pup]

I'm glad to see the revised analysis without wet races. Though I'd still caution about drawing conclusions from season averages, since individual races come and go. There's also the problem of not knowing other specifics of each race, as others have mentioned.

Perhaps a better strategy would be to look at individual courses, or to choose two sets of courses - high speed tracks and low speed tracks, maybe three examples of each - and then see where the data takes you. Looking at the data in that way might give better insight into the causes. For example, why was there a significant drop in passing at Hungary, Hockenheim and Magny Cours in 1994, whereas tracks like Monza, Canada and Estoril didn't see a drop until the next year?

It might also help filter out the noise if the study only included passes among the top X number of cars. Or, to be pragmatic about the whole thing, just look at passes for the lead since for most people that's undoubtably the main thing that determines how exciting a particular race is.

[ISLAMATRON]

At least Brawn puts the blame where it should be, on the teams and not on the FIA... why the posters on this board can not understand it perplexes me. It is the teams who shape the rules, and it has been so for quite some time... the FIA has very little to do with the regulations... they are merely charged with assuring the teams adhere to them.

[timbo]

At least Brawn puts the blame where it should be, on the teams and not on the FIA... why the posters on this board can not understand it perplexes me.

Because MrM is lying, autocratic, insane, sexually perverted f**k. Is that enough reason?

Now, seriously, to say that FIA cared about overtaking or even cared about reasonable "roadmap" of changes they introduced over the years is HUGE overestimation. They even never cared about enforcing ideas of OWG.

And putting the blame on teams for lack of overtaking is also wrong - what they do is creating the fastest car.

Yes, teams are conservative, but what's so surprising about that? If you have to plan your car and R&D for years ahead how could you be not conservative to a certain degree?

[xpensive]

The FIA was obviously the party pushing for costly rulechanges, narrow-track and groved tyres, V8 engines, KERS and what not. Moreover, only the FIA had the power to stop the DDD's in its infancy, not the teams.

[roost89]

Although a good article, I think it is flawed. In that when cars have different characteristics. As was previously said. Different engine specs etc. It becomes alot easier to overtake be it in corner or on a straight. When you have a spec like series. The overtakes become less as you have to be significantly slower than the persuer to be overtaken. Which, when you have a series of 20 professionals who have battled to get up here is very unlikely to happen. If they are much slower than the rest of the field they fired.

As has been previously stated. The reliability of cars has greatly increased, if you were to compare reliability over the years, I think now is the best ever. Also the professionalism of the engineers, the tools accuracy has increased by a massive degree. Also the safety of the cars.

As has been mentioned on the television by the commentators countless times. F1 is amazingly close at the moment. The drivers have a gap of tenths, mere tenths (sometimes less) between making Q2 and Q3 from the previous round. So in that respect the FIA (who you claim is committing the wrongs) has done an amazing job. Closer racing, it's a shame it's only in the qualifying session.

The accuracy and ability is, what I think, makes the difference between now and then. The ability and accuracy is far greater now. The envelope for difference is small.

In my opinion, lots of overtaking is boring. I'd rather see smaller numbers of actual overtaking but closer racing, greater opportunity.

[segedunum]

How refueling affects passing? AFAIK refueling was banned at 1984, so I'd like to see pre-1984 figures.

Well, we can certainly see the effect when it was brought in in 1994.

What you got was teams and drivers very reluctant to pass, angling their strategy to pass while in the pits and you merely got the top teams locking out the front of the grid only for them to run lower fuel to maintain track position and stay where they were. Carrying fuel from qualifying into the race was a way of getting around that but it merely reduced qualifying to a qustion mark about fuel, and I hate hearing about those boring published fuel weights.

No refuelling wasn't perfect, but refuelling was an ill-conceived idea brought in in 1994 as a response to William's dominaton.