Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[Andres125sx]

As it happens I just worked out that the road from Melbourne to Sydney will need 350 MW of solar panels to power the cars that drive there, on average (double that in winter), about 1.4 million standard rooftop panels.

That's for one road.

Plus batteries, about 7 of the world's biggest as installed in South Australia, or 11 as it was originally constructed.

Do we calculate how much litres of fuel are burned into each city daily Greg?


This is the sort of demagogy I´d never expect to find into F1T

[Stu]

I would like to electrify my MX5, but….
Do I jump now and go for what is currently affordable for me?
Or…
Do I wait for fives years of electric vehicle ‘Moore’s Law’ and get a much better result for a similar outlay?

[Just_a_fan]

As it happens I just worked out that the road from Melbourne to Sydney will need 350 MW of solar panels to power the cars that drive there, on average (double that in winter), about 1.4 million standard rooftop panels.

That's for one road.

Plus batteries, about 7 of the world's biggest as installed in South Australia, or 11 as it was originally constructed.

Scary how much petrol and diesel fuel must be consumed travelling that one road.

But it's another outlier example - how many people drive that road from end to end each day? How many people really do drive c.900km in a day, even in a big country like Australia? Sticking to the speed limits in Victoria and NSW, you'd take c.8 hours to drive the route assuming no stops along the way. So I'm going to stick my neck out and say not many people do it.

The average fuel use per day in Victoria and NSW is 5L and 4.8L (https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-ins ... ralia.html). Yes, averages are a blunt tool but it suggests that many aren't doing huge distances each day or even each week. The reality for many in those two territories is driving in and around the cities of Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, etc., doing a few tens of km per day - just like the majority of urban populations the world over. And those are the sort of uses that EVs are excellent for.

[Just_a_fan]

I would like to electrify my MX5, but….
Do I jump now and go for what is currently affordable for me?
Or…
Do I wait for fives years of electric vehicle ‘Moore’s Law’ and get a much better result for a similar outlay?

I think my question would be: will doing that ruin the character of the car? The MX5 is a relatively lightweight sportscar - can you electrify it and still keep the essential handling characteristics? It would be a shame to create a car that didn't handle well. And you'd lose the lovely gearbox action - unless the gearboxes are not as good as the examples I drove way back when.

[Stu]

I would like to electrify my MX5, but….
Do I jump now and go for what is currently affordable for me?
Or…
Do I wait for fives years of electric vehicle ‘Moore’s Law’ and get a much better result for a similar outlay?

I think my question would be: will doing that ruin the character of the car? The MX5 is a relatively lightweight sportscar - can you electrify it and still keep the essential handling characteristics? It would be a shame to create a car that didn't handle well. And you'd lose the lovely gearbox action - unless the gearboxes are not as good as the examples I drove way back when.

This the quandary for me, I want to keep the car long-term, but want to keep it usable in the manner intended; a lightweight, sporty, fun car to drive. Mine is an auto and 26 years old. At some point in the next decade it will start to become difficult to source a suitable fuel (E10 is okay, but E25 will probably be an issue?), hence the plan to go electric (eventually).
Intention would be to not add weight, maintain CoG and weight distribution and not go stupid with power (approx 100kW, similar to the 1.8 engine now fitted).

[Big Tea]

I would like to electrify my MX5, but….
Do I jump now and go for what is currently affordable for me?
Or…
Do I wait for fives years of electric vehicle ‘Moore’s Law’ and get a much better result for a similar outlay?

I think my question would be: will doing that ruin the character of the car? The MX5 is a relatively lightweight sportscar - can you electrify it and still keep the essential handling characteristics? It would be a shame to create a car that didn't handle well. And you'd lose the lovely gearbox action - unless the gearboxes are not as good as the examples I drove way back when.

This the quandary for me, I want to keep the car long-term, but want to keep it usable in the manner intended; a lightweight, sporty, fun car to drive. Mine is an auto and 26 years old. At some point in the next decade it will start to become difficult to source a suitable fuel (E10 is okay, but E25 will probably be an issue?), hence the plan to go electric (eventually).
Intention would be to not add weight, maintain CoG and weight distribution and not go stupid with power (approx 100kW, similar to the 1.8 engine now fitted).

How much (cost in $ not co) fuel will you use in the 5 or so years? Also off set against what you can sell the engine for now v sell when everyone wants 'letric.

Probably the big factor would be what range you want therefor what weight of battery?
If you intend to keep it, it would seem inevitable it has to be done at some time, so ... be the guy with the 'letric MX now rather than a guy that has one in 5 years time

[Greg Locock]

[ "EVs are rubbish here so they're rubbish full stop"

EVs are inevitable pretty much. My argument is not that it is impossible to drive an electric car long distances (curious that would be, since I have driven the length and breadth of Australia in an electric car decades ago), merely that the shear amount of infrastructure required has not been recognised.

As it happens that is a cute example, because if you use domestic panels, that would be one row of panels the entire length of the road. So, although it is substantial and hi tech infrastructure, the /scale/ is of the order of what we do already.

[Greg Locock]

It's about 20000 vehicles, of which by eyeball 60% or more are cars. Arguing that it is a lightly trafficed road (which it is) seems a bit odd.

"Scary how much petrol and diesel fuel must be consumed travelling that one road."

12000 cars at 1000 km at 10 l/100km=120 kl

The usual alternative is flying. Flying 24000 people 1000 km uses ([1000] + 722) x24000*1.5/33=188 kl, if the flights were all full, on a narrow bodied jet

"nuclear"

well yes, obviously. might even be an election issue (fat chance, coward vs coward)

[Just_a_fan]

[ "EVs are rubbish here so they're rubbish full stop"

EVs are inevitable pretty much. My argument is not that it is impossible to drive an electric car long distances (curious that would be, since I have driven the length and breadth of Australia in an electric car decades ago), merely that the shear amount of infrastructure required has not been recognised.

As it happens that is a cute example, because if you use domestic panels, that would be one row of panels the entire length of the road. So, although it is substantial and hi tech infrastructure, the /scale/ is of the order of what we do already.

I'm not sure that the infrastructure hasn't been recognised. Some might try to make out it isn't a problem - and to start with it isn't - but it will need investment just as petrol stations and petroleum transportation systems had to be developed over time.

I like your idea about a string of PV along the entire length of the road. Quite a fun image. However Australia has huge renewable resources, especially in off shore wind generation potential. The nice thing about that is that the vast majority of the population live along the coastal fringes of the country with over 15 million living in 5 cities. So getting the volts to the user isn't an impossible task. Urban EV use is the starting ground for more widespread adoption.

It will be interesting to see whether hydrogen is adopted in "long range" countries such as Australia. It gives the speed of refuelling of petroleum fuels and similar ranges between fills so would work on the inter-urban long routes.

[Stu]

[ "EVs are rubbish here so they're rubbish full stop"

EVs are inevitable pretty much. My argument is not that it is impossible to drive an electric car long distances (curious that would be, since I have driven the length and breadth of Australia in an electric car decades ago), merely that the shear amount of infrastructure required has not been recognised.

As it happens that is a cute example, because if you use domestic panels, that would be one row of panels the entire length of the road. So, although it is substantial and hi tech infrastructure, the /scale/ is of the order of what we do already.

I'm not sure that the infrastructure hasn't been recognised. Some might try to make out it isn't a problem - and to start with it isn't - but it will need investment just as petrol stations and petroleum transportation systems had to be developed over time.

I like your idea about a string of PV along the entire length of the road. Quite a fun image. However Australia has huge renewable resources, especially in off shore wind generation potential. The nice thing about that is that the vast majority of the population live along the coastal fringes of the country with over 15 million living in 5 cities. So getting the volts to the user isn't an impossible task. Urban EV use is the starting ground for more widespread adoption.

It will be interesting to see whether hydrogen is adopted in "long range" countries such as Australia. It gives the speed of refuelling of petroleum fuels and similar ranges between fills so would work on the inter-urban long routes.

Australia is a perfect example for hydrogen creation and use; there is enough potential renewable energy to be able to supply for electrical demand and create a huge hydrogen store. There is a reason why Aramco are currently investing heavily into renewable energy and hydrogen, Australia has the potential to be a real economic powerhouse!!

[Stu]

I think my question would be: will doing that ruin the character of the car? The MX5 is a relatively lightweight sportscar - can you electrify it and still keep the essential handling characteristics? It would be a shame to create a car that didn't handle well. And you'd lose the lovely gearbox action - unless the gearboxes are not as good as the examples I drove way back when.

This the quandary for me, I want to keep the car long-term, but want to keep it usable in the manner intended; a lightweight, sporty, fun car to drive. Mine is an auto and 26 years old. At some point in the next decade it will start to become difficult to source a suitable fuel (E10 is okay, but E25 will probably be an issue?), hence the plan to go electric (eventually).
Intention would be to not add weight, maintain CoG and weight distribution and not go stupid with power (approx 100kW, similar to the 1.8 engine now fitted).

How much (cost in $ not co) fuel will you use in the 5 or so years? Also off set against what you can sell the engine for now v sell when everyone wants 'letric.

Probably the big factor would be what range you want therefor what weight of battery?
If you intend to keep it, it would seem inevitable it has to be done at some time, so ... be the guy with the 'letric MX now rather than a guy that has one in 5 years time

I like the idea of that, however Moore’s Law is currently very strong in the EV world!!
Once I am able to commit to taking it off the road it will be done; a lot of research and design to do before that point - I am determined to maintain the characteristics of the original!

[Andres125sx]

I am determined to maintain the characteristics of the original!

Maintaining the characteristics of the original is simply imposible I´m afraid. Well, if you´re ok with 50km range then maybe, but if not, then it will be heavier for sure.

To keep same characteristics you´d need to install batteries into the trunk to keep it balanced (assuming batteries on the front)

I love the idea and project, but not sure how successful it might be

[Tommy Cookers]

- I am determined to maintain the characteristics of the original!

the output characteristics of the original ICE could be matched exactly by the electric 'motor'
(if the original gearbox aka transmission was retained - there is some argument for such a retention)
there might even be a swappable chip eg one for trackday weekends

stick-shift lovers might buy into the concept
remember MG once made the F with the CVT fiddled to behave as a DVT ie to emulate a stick-shift

[Just_a_fan]

Australia is a perfect example for hydrogen creation and use; there is enough potential renewable energy to be able to supply for electrical demand and create a huge hydrogen store. There is a reason why Aramco are currently investing heavily into renewable energy and hydrogen, Australia has the potential to be a real economic powerhouse!!

Australia has large reserves of fossil fuel and they're a key part of its economy - they are the largest exporter of coal in the world. They are wedded to fossil fuels and it's going to take some hard work to change that. Sadly, we can't discuss around that subject any further as the mods will delete posts and tell us off for talking about politics.

I can see them going for hydrogen but not the "green" variety made by electrolysis rather the dirty type made from the steam reformation of methane - they have lots of natural gas reserves (that's methane) so it would be easier than building renewable energy sources and then producing hydrogen.

[Andres125sx]

Sadly, we can't discuss around that subject any further as the mods will delete posts and tell us off for talking about politics.

There´s a specific thread for that

Energy distribution (and electricity generation)