2022 pecking order speculation

[Jolle]

What I hope and suspect are not the same list.
What I suspect is Mercedes having a good lead again, followed by McLaren and Ferrari fighting for the last podium. Redbull struggling with their PU and packaging the first half of the season. Then Alpine with decent speed but lots of DNF’s with MHU-H failures. Williams fighting AT and AR, HAAS, well, being HAAS.

What I hope, fight of the titans with Verstappen and Hamilton going edge to edge (but with a better race director).

Why would Redbull struggling with their PU and packaging the first half of the season? Just curious.
Did they that ever before?

I suspect that the transition from Honda to RedBullPowertrains has a bit more to it then a new badge. And with that, there will be more heat generated and Newey cars are always designed close to the edge.

[Wouter]

What I hope and suspect are not the same list.
What I suspect is Mercedes having a good lead again, followed by McLaren and Ferrari fighting for the last podium. Redbull struggling with their PU and packaging the first half of the season. Then Alpine with decent speed but lots of DNF’s with MHU-H failures. Williams fighting AT and AR, HAAS, well, being HAAS.

What I hope, fight of the titans with Verstappen and Hamilton going edge to edge (but with a better race director).

.
Why would Redbull struggling with their PU and packaging the first half of the season? Just curious.
Did they that ever before?

.
I suspect that the transition from Honda to RedBullPowertrains has a bit more to it then a new badge. And with that, there will be more heat generated and Newey cars are always designed close to the edge.

.
I don't think much will change as far as Honda is concerned, except that the PU will no longer be called Honda. Most of the Honda people who worked on the PU in the Honda building are now working in the RB Powretrains building. The difference is that their salary is now paid by RB.
I agree with you that Newey always designs his cars to the edge, but in terms of cooling it didn't go wrong last season either. They will now be able to realize more cooling options in other places, if needed on a particular circuit.
In addition, Newey takes the characteristics of the PU into account in his design. Honda has to deliver the PU as fast as possible and Newey then does the rest. I see it positively and if something goes wrong during testing, it won't take half a year before a solution is found, at most a few weeks.

[Jolle]

.
Why would Redbull struggling with their PU and packaging the first half of the season? Just curious.
Did they that ever before?

.
I suspect that the transition from Honda to RedBullPowertrains has a bit more to it then a new badge. And with that, there will be more heat generated and Newey cars are always designed close to the edge.

.
I don't think much will change as far as Honda is concerned, except that the PU will no longer be called Honda. Most of the Honda people who worked on the PU in the Honda building are now working in the RB Powretrains building. The difference is that their salary is now paid by RB.
I agree with you that Newey always designs his cars to the edge, but in terms of cooling it didn't go wrong last season either. They will now be able to realize more cooling options in other places, if needed on a particular circuit.
In addition, Newey takes the characteristics of the PU into account in his design. Honda has to deliver the PU as fast as possible and Newey then does the rest. I see it positively and if something goes wrong during testing, it won't take half a year before a solution is found, at most a few weeks.

Could be, but that’s not my prediction.

[henry]

I think Alpha Tauri might be a dark horse (bull) in all this. In previous years they have often been strong at the beginning of the season but have been out developed as it progressed. This year the relative resources for in-season development are more equal. So maybe their ability to design to a set of regulations in the first place will bring them near the front and thereafter they’ll be able to maintain their position. In addition Gasly has shown himself to be a pretty decent driver.

[Just_a_fan]

I think Alpha Tauri might be a dark horse (bull) in all this. In previous years they have often been strong at the beginning of the season but have been out developed as it progressed. This year the relative resources for in-season development are more equal. So maybe their ability to design to a set of regulations in the first place will bring them near the front and thereafter they’ll be able to maintain their position. In addition Gasly has shown himself to be a pretty decent driver.

I think AT will be used as a test team for the senior team at Red Bull. Try stuff on the AT, using AT's development allowances (budget, wind tunnel and CPU time) and then if it works, try it on the Red Bull. It would be a sensible thing to do if they can get away with it.

Quite how the FIA stops this sort of thing happening between closely aligned teams is going to be interesting.

[mclaren111]

I think Alpha Tauri might be a dark horse (bull) in all this. In previous years they have often been strong at the beginning of the season but have been out developed as it progressed. This year the relative resources for in-season development are more equal. So maybe their ability to design to a set of regulations in the first place will bring them near the front and thereafter they’ll be able to maintain their position. In addition Gasly has shown himself to be a pretty decent driver.

That's when James Key was TD... He's now at Mclaren...

[henry]

I think Alpha Tauri might be a dark horse (bull) in all this. In previous years they have often been strong at the beginning of the season but have been out developed as it progressed. This year the relative resources for in-season development are more equal. So maybe their ability to design to a set of regulations in the first place will bring them near the front and thereafter they’ll be able to maintain their position. In addition Gasly has shown himself to be a pretty decent driver.

I think AT will be used as a test team for the senior team at Red Bull. Try stuff on the AT, using AT's development allowances (budget, wind tunnel and CPU time) and then if it works, try it on the Red Bull. It would be a sensible thing to do if they can get away with it.

Quite how the FIA stops this sort of thing happening between closely aligned teams is going to be interesting.

Is there much evidence of this happening in previous seasons?

[Just_a_fan]

I think Alpha Tauri might be a dark horse (bull) in all this. In previous years they have often been strong at the beginning of the season but have been out developed as it progressed. This year the relative resources for in-season development are more equal. So maybe their ability to design to a set of regulations in the first place will bring them near the front and thereafter they’ll be able to maintain their position. In addition Gasly has shown himself to be a pretty decent driver.

I think AT will be used as a test team for the senior team at Red Bull. Try stuff on the AT, using AT's development allowances (budget, wind tunnel and CPU time) and then if it works, try it on the Red Bull. It would be a sensible thing to do if they can get away with it.

Quite how the FIA stops this sort of thing happening between closely aligned teams is going to be interesting.

Is there much evidence of this happening in previous seasons?

There weren't the same restrictions in previous seasons, of course. There was, however, concern that the Ferrari / Haas tie up would be used similarly...

[Zynerji]

AT is always my Dark Horse pick going into a season.

I want to watch the media utterly fry Horner if they prevent AT from winning if RBR is in second place..

[Ryar]

I think Alpha Tauri might be a dark horse (bull) in all this. In previous years they have often been strong at the beginning of the season but have been out developed as it progressed. This year the relative resources for in-season development are more equal. So maybe their ability to design to a set of regulations in the first place will bring them near the front and thereafter they’ll be able to maintain their position. In addition Gasly has shown himself to be a pretty decent driver.

I think AT will be used as a test team for the senior team at Red Bull. Try stuff on the AT, using AT's development allowances (budget, wind tunnel and CPU time) and then if it works, try it on the Red Bull. It would be a sensible thing to do if they can get away with it.

Quite how the FIA stops this sort of thing happening between closely aligned teams is going to be interesting.

Is there much evidence of this happening in previous seasons?

It's a theory. So far, AT used their own wind tunnel (50% model) and their own development path, except for the last couple of years where they started using a lot of components from RB, motivated by Haas and Ferrari transactions. With 2022 car, AT has started using RB wind tunnel (60% model) and continue to buy parts from RB. A new and more robust wind tunnel should help better correlate the data, develop teh car better and keep them in contention with bigger teams facing budget restriction. IMO, they have left Gasly at AT and not moved him to RB as they probably bet bigger on the success in 2022 at AT and need a strong team leader. Will they be used as a guinea pig for RB like just_a_fan says, is difficult to imagine and can only be potentially possible if both cares are absolutely identiical. Otherwise, testing "stuff" on AT if their car has, even slightly different aerodynamic characterstics is a useless exercise for RB. It remains to be seen if there can be utilization of AT wind tunnel allowance by RB, which would be violation of the regulations, but how do they practically monitor it and finds out would be interesting.

[Stu]

I think Alpha Tauri might be a dark horse (bull) in all this. In previous years they have often been strong at the beginning of the season but have been out developed as it progressed. This year the relative resources for in-season development are more equal. So maybe their ability to design to a set of regulations in the first place will bring them near the front and thereafter they’ll be able to maintain their position. In addition Gasly has shown himself to be a pretty decent driver.

I think AT will be used as a test team for the senior team at Red Bull. Try stuff on the AT, using AT's development allowances (budget, wind tunnel and CPU time) and then if it works, try it on the Red Bull. It would be a sensible thing to do if they can get away with it.

Quite how the FIA stops this sort of thing happening between closely aligned teams is going to be interesting.

Is there much evidence of this happening in previous seasons?

The 2020 Racing Point car??

[basti313]

I think AT will be used as a test team for the senior team at Red Bull. Try stuff on the AT, using AT's development allowances (budget, wind tunnel and CPU time) and then if it works, try it on the Red Bull. It would be a sensible thing to do if they can get away with it.

Quite how the FIA stops this sort of thing happening between closely aligned teams is going to be interesting.

Is there much evidence of this happening in previous seasons?

It's a theory. So far, AT used their own wind tunnel (50% model) and their own development path, except for the last couple of years where they started using a lot of components from RB, motivated by Haas and Ferrari transactions. With 2022 car, AT has started using RB wind tunnel (60% model) and continue to buy parts from RB. A new and more robust wind tunnel should help better correlate the data, develop teh car better and keep them in contention with bigger teams facing budget restriction. IMO, they have left Gasly at AT and not moved him to RB as they probably bet bigger on the success in 2022 at AT and need a strong team leader. Will they be used as a guinea pig for RB like just_a_fan says, is difficult to imagine and can only be potentially possible if both cares are absolutely identiical. Otherwise, testing "stuff" on AT if their car has, even slightly different aerodynamic characterstics is a useless exercise for RB. It remains to be seen if there can be utilization of AT wind tunnel allowance by RB, which would be violation of the regulations, but how do they practically monitor it and finds out would be interesting.

They do not have to monitor. Someone is always singing (crashgate, spygate just as big examples) and here we are talking about involvement of low employees that switch teams without gardening leave. No one can outsource or share projects like this.
What is more difficult to police is if the CTO of one team is calling the one from the partner team. But I do not think that is a super beneficial way to deal infos in modern F1.

Ferrari and Haas were different as Haas was out of the rules.

So let us look at what is possible and I think there are very relevant parts shared:
- Brake ducts. As the rules are completely new here the improvements will be strong. I can not imagine that RB buys them from Torro...but that would be an interesting sneak through the rules...
- Air flow and cooling inside the car. A very, very relevant point. I think the engine manufacturer can share info on cooling requirements and tipps and tricks between the teams and can get feedback.
- Wing concepts. If two teams share one wind tunnel, of course they can see the models of the other team and at least see/identify concepts.

[Just_a_fan]

Will they be used as a guinea pig for RB like just_a_fan says, is difficult to imagine and can only be potentially possible if both cares are absolutely identiical. Otherwise, testing "stuff" on AT if their car has, even slightly different aerodynamic characterstics is a useless exercise for RB. It remains to be seen if there can be utilization of AT wind tunnel allowance by RB, which would be violation of the regulations, but how do they practically monitor it and finds out would be interesting.

This year, with the very prescribed regulations, is probably the best chance any two teams have of helping each other. The cars are going to look so similar to start with anyway - especially if they're using parts in both from one team e.g. the drive train and rear rear end. Of course, there is also a tendency for teams to copy aero parts e.g. the front cape, and so there is a natural move towards similarity of ideas/components, so hiding the use of a "mule team" to try out ideas would be easier with these regulations.

It's just a thought, really, that teams might try this. And if they do, Red Bull / AT is the closest pairing as they're both basically different arms of the same company. It's possible that Mercedes and AM would do similar although there isn't the same family connection that RBR and AT have. I don't see Williams or McLaren playing test bed for Mercedes, that's for sure.

[Big Tea]

I really can not decide what to think about Sauber this year. On history, they should be lower midfield, but would Bottas have gone there just to make the numbers up?

[Zynerji]

Will they be used as a guinea pig for RB like just_a_fan says, is difficult to imagine and can only be potentially possible if both cares are absolutely identiical. Otherwise, testing "stuff" on AT if their car has, even slightly different aerodynamic characterstics is a useless exercise for RB. It remains to be seen if there can be utilization of AT wind tunnel allowance by RB, which would be violation of the regulations, but how do they practically monitor it and finds out would be interesting.

This year, with the very prescribed regulations, is probably the best chance any two teams have of helping each other. The cars are going to look so similar to start with anyway - especially if they're using parts in both from one team e.g. the drive train and rear rear end. Of course, there is also a tendency for teams to copy aero parts e.g. the front cape, and so there is a natural move towards similarity of ideas/components, so hiding the use of a "mule team" to try out ideas would be easier with these regulations.

It's just a thought, really, that teams might try this. And if they do, Red Bull / AT is the closest pairing as they're both basically different arms of the same company. It's possible that Mercedes and AM would do similar although there isn't the same family connection that RBR and AT have. I don't see Williams or McLaren playing test bed for Mercedes, that's for sure.

If I were Williams, I'd ABSOLUTELY volunteer to be Mercedes "test bed"... That's probably a guaranteed 3rd in the championship!