2022 Bahrain Grand Prix - Sakhir, March 18 - 20

[LM10]

What I found interesting was that right before qualifying Andrew Shovlin said that they might divide the Ferraris. Was it a massive underestimation of Ferrari's potential or a massive overestimation of Mercedes' potential?

I think everyone is using an old set of expectations to measure Ferrari and Binotto is clearly doing things very differently than in the past and has surprised a lot of people. I absolutely love this Ferrari.

You're spot on. I can only agree with that. It's been really apparent for a longer time that Ferrari's approach to things changed significantly. It was not the right call to look at traditions and draw conclusions. This time around they seem to have perfectly managed the part of not showing their hand.

And I must say up to the last minute I've had the feeling that Ferrari still had more in hand going into qualifying. Just because the circumstances showed that. Binotto has been calm as never before and he was clear with his words when saying that they neither turned up the wick nor did low fuel runs in pre-season testing.

Don't know why some people have had doubts in Binotto. This guy has made mostly right moves and calls since day 1. The decision to keep the team as it is and trust it was one of the best ones.

[Sevach]

Honestly, I disagree. It's the other way around, but 10 HP tops. Red bull is clearly running with less downforce, either by choice or not and that's making them look better. Ferrari is better in medium speed turn in and early acceleration up to around ~250-260 kmh, especially when laterally loaded (T11-T13). I've been watching mini sectors trough the qualifying and ferrari was consistently posting purples on most straights. This was the case in fp2 already. People were speculating then that red bull is holding back on power, but in reality they haven't (as I was suspecting).

These are very small differences, one car might have just a bit more downforce and just a bit less drag. More downforce doesn't have to mean more drag when things are this close. Running the CFD of Ferrari, Merc and Red Bull style sidepods on the same car showed Ferrari might be lowering rear tyre drag with wide sidepods. Combined with smaller rear wing and smaller airbox than Red Bull and Merc, I am sure they have the least drag of the 3 launch cars and RB hasn't changed that much since then.

Anyway, thanks for your lap-time videos, great work!

I understand where you're coming from, however I still don't agree, and more people who analysed telemetry are leaning more towards my conclusions:
https://old.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... _analysis/

This guy basically came to identical results as what I was observing trough testing, practice and finally qualifying:
- Ferrari has most downforce, medium drag levels and highest power output
- Red bull has lower downforce, very low drag and a bit lower power output (vs ferrari)
- Mercedes also has lower downforce, but very high drag and possibly not so high engine power (could be skewed by unreasonably high drag at this point)

my 2 cents

I don't think Mercedes has unreasonably high drag, their clients seem slower (strictly straight line speed argument) still.

[Juzh]

These are very small differences, one car might have just a bit more downforce and just a bit less drag. More downforce doesn't have to mean more drag when things are this close. Running the CFD of Ferrari, Merc and Red Bull style sidepods on the same car showed Ferrari might be lowering rear tyre drag with wide sidepods. Combined with smaller rear wing and smaller airbox than Red Bull and Merc, I am sure they have the least drag of the 3 launch cars and RB hasn't changed that much since then.

Anyway, thanks for your lap-time videos, great work!

I understand where you're coming from, however I still don't agree, and more people who analysed telemetry are leaning more towards my conclusions:
https://old.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... _analysis/

This guy basically came to identical results as what I was observing trough testing, practice and finally qualifying:
- Ferrari has most downforce, medium drag levels and highest power output
- Red bull has lower downforce, very low drag and a bit lower power output (vs ferrari)
- Mercedes also has lower downforce, but very high drag and possibly not so high engine power (could be skewed by unreasonably high drag at this point)

my 2 cents

I don't think Mercedes has unreasonably high drag, their clients seem slower (strictly straight line speed argument) still.

Toto wolf thinks they probably have the most drag on the car of anyone:
relevant part starts at 20s


Anyway, I think it's a bit of both, high drag and lower power. For example, on start/finish line hamilton was 6 and 7 kmh down against honda and ferrari at the start of their best Q3 laps, 283 kmh vs 289 kmh (honda) and 290 kmh (ferrari). I believe this difference is too much to be just down to either one of those two factors so it's probably a combination of both.

[ferkan]

Toto body language looks worst then ever. I think its a bit of everything...Drag, power, design decision...

[Airshifter]

What I found interesting was that right before qualifying Andrew Shovlin said that they might divide the Ferraris. Was it a massive underestimation of Ferrari's potential or a massive overestimation of Mercedes' potential?

Possibly some of both. I personally think it's comical that anyone, including team members, makes any predictions before the first qually and races. If several teams sandbag, which we know they well might, nobody really knows for sure what is going on until every team unleashes the hounds.

Unless a team (or forum) member makes modest humble predictions, they are often going to come back to bite them. But it's just the nature of humans I guess.

[LM10]

Very clean drive from Max without any moments. Charles needed a couple of corrections. That's why he was not entirely happy with his lap.

[PlatinumZealot]

The car has less frontal area but it has more drag. That is opposite to what you would expect by looking at the car right? Shows that the wings are working very hard and the floor not much so. Understandable. I guess the engineers have purposely raised ride heights to prevent porpoising but had to make up the lost downforce with the wings.

[dialtone]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oe8ucnyNUgs

That acceleration out of corners is truly out of the world, if it translates to anything at race start Sainz could be 2nd after T1.

[Magicsenna_41]

What I found interesting was that right before qualifying Andrew Shovlin said that they might divide the Ferraris. Was it a massive underestimation of Ferrari's potential or a massive overestimation of Mercedes' potential?

Possibly some of both. I personally think it's comical that anyone, including team members, makes any predictions before the first qually and races. If several teams sandbag, which we know they well might, nobody really knows for sure what is going on until every team unleashes the hounds.

Unless a team (or forum) member makes modest humble predictions, they are often going to come back to bite them. But it's just the nature of humans I guess.

Shov made that comment because Sainz pace was nowhere near Leclerc. Until Qualifying of course. Thats also what Sainz told after Q3.

[LM10]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oe8ucnyNUgs

That acceleration out of corners is truly out of the world, if it translates to anything at race start Sainz could be 2nd after T1.

Yes, traction out of corners and acceleration phase seem to be a standout.

Also, as I've added to the post above, Charles had a couple of corrections while Max was flawless it seems. I wonder if the time Max lost in the last corner was more car dependent or driving style. And I also wonder if Charles had even more time left on table.

[dialtone]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oe8ucnyNUgs

That acceleration out of corners is truly out of the world, if it translates to anything at race start Sainz could be 2nd after T1.

Yes, traction out of corners and acceleration phase seem to be a standout.

Also, as I've added to the post above, Charles had a couple of corrections while Max was flawless it seems. I wonder if the time Max lost in the last corner was more car dependent or driving style. And I also wonder if Charles had even more time left on table.

I don't think Charles specifically had something left for this lap in these conditions. I think RBR upgrade package in the second test was very significant, particularly in their new suspension and Ferrari is dealing still with compromises. The errors from Charles were just because he was at the limit, I would consider them hard to remove them without going slower.

[Sevach]

And a bonus one

[ringo]

Honestly, I disagree. It's the other way around, but 10 HP tops. Red bull is clearly running with less downforce, either by choice or not and that's making them look better. Ferrari is better in medium speed turn in and early acceleration up to around ~250-260 kmh, especially when laterally loaded (T11-T13). I've been watching mini sectors trough the qualifying and ferrari was consistently posting purples on most straights. This was the case in fp2 already. People were speculating then that red bull is holding back on power, but in reality they haven't (as I was suspecting).

These are very small differences, one car might have just a bit more downforce and just a bit less drag. More downforce doesn't have to mean more drag when things are this close. Running the CFD of Ferrari, Merc and Red Bull style sidepods on the same car showed Ferrari might be lowering rear tyre drag with wide sidepods. Combined with smaller rear wing and smaller airbox than Red Bull and Merc, I am sure they have the least drag of the 3 launch cars and RB hasn't changed that much since then.

Anyway, thanks for your lap-time videos, great work!

How can you say this if speed traps say otherwise?
Let's watch the race first.
I do not think the CFD models are accurate enough, neither is the mesh detailed enough to give a true answer. I think it's indicative at best.

[ringo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnHWNcR ... el=PRIMEF1

And a bonus one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMT9NK_ ... celFischer

Ferrari is killing Merc under acceleration. The W13 seems good under braking and some portions of the corner. But it just moves more sluggish on exit and high speed corners.

[pantherxxx]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnHWNcR ... el=PRIMEF1

And a bonus one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMT9NK_ ... celFischer

Ferrari is killing Merc under acceleration. The W13 seems good under braking and some portions of the corner. But it just moves more sluggish on exit and high speed corners.

Mercedes is not even porpoising that more than Ferrari. They're just simply slower.