CHT wrote: ↑08 Mar 2023, 04:41
Competition at the front is now so competitive and unforgiving and if any team makes a fundamental car design mistake at the start of the new regulation cycle, the team will most likely to suffer for many years to come. This happens to Mclaren, Williams and Ferrari despite them being regular championship contenders with massive budget (before any budget cap)
For Merc case, the existing design concept is already in its 2nd year, and the pace has fallen too far behind, so it will be unrealistic for the team to think or talk about winning the championship in 2023 regardless if they run a zero sidepod or RBR design concept.
My guess is that Merc will likely finish in 3rd or 4th in the constructors in 2023 regardless of which design concept they run. If the team is convinced RBR design is the way forward then the factory will gradually have to scale down development on the existing car and switch to the new design.
How soon can or should they bring out the new car? It depends.
Can they win the championship in 2023?
Is race win important in 2023?
Does it matter if Merc finishes 3rd or 4th?
If Merc target is only winning the championship, then I think it may be better for Merc to delay their new car till next year. To bring out a car that is incomplete, poorly designed/copied without innovation, Merc may slide even further down and draw negative publicity. On the other hand, if Merc introduces a new car with new innovations that will also help competitors to improve.
There is no easy solution for Merc and here are my guesses
2014 to 2020 - 7 years of unbroken success (First 7 years of V6 engine era)
2021 - a shocking year for Hamilton
2022 - a year of confusion and denial (the start of V6 E10 engine era)
2023 - a year of anger, disappointment & acceptance.
2024 - a year of testing & lobbying for change
2025 - a year of fighting back and hope for 2026