Which team is most likely to catch redbull before 2026 discussion

[organic]

In fact, if RB19 technology made its way to AT for the 2024 season, we may see AT in the fight for the best of rest.

Don't get your hopes up for AT. They still won't be able to copy the Red Bull aero design.

This weekend was just a one-off. I've of the things AT nailed this weekend was the cooling - they found an exact tradeoff between that and performance, which gave them an aero advantage.

Hmm.. I don't think that's right. Have you looked at the telemetry? Or followed how eagerly anticipated the Singapore and COTA upgrades were to the Alpha Tauri car - not dissimilar to McLaren's anticipation for Austria? The car made a big step forward in terms of pure performance with that upgrade that wasn't seen until COTA

If a team has found advantage from optimal cooling compared to other packages that would, I think you'll agree, manifest either in superior drag coefficient, or maybe they can extract more potential from the PU meaning time gains made under acceleration and down the straights

However if we look at Ricciardo in qualifying @ Mexico that isn't what we see at all.. We see a car that is as quick as the RB everywhere but the straights - better on the brakes but slightly slower in the high speed. Over 2 tenths are lost on the start-finish straight and he finishes less than 2 tenths behind Max.



I think while Mexico clearly suits the car, it's not just a good cooling configuration.. The car has legitimately a fair bit of downforce now - not on the level of Merc/McLaren/Ferrari/RB but on the level of Alpine

But the elephant is in the room - they've not stopped upgrading and have been chucking parts on all season. A basic car for the beginning of 2023 is one reason but another is that they've not focused on '24 as much as others. They could feel the pain next year

[TFSA]

Hmm.. I don't think that's right. Have you looked at the telemetry? Or followed how eagerly anticipated the Singapore and COTA upgrades were to the Alpha Tauri car - not dissimilar to McLaren's anticipation for Austria? The car made a big step forward in terms of pure performance with that upgrade that wasn't seen until COTA

Nope, i haven't. What i heard was some Pundit on Twitter (can't remember who) who had pointed out that AlphaTauri was running less grills than most other teams for this race. Less grills means better aero.

It may very well be that AT, with the setup it has, has higher downforce than the Red Bull. For all the RB19s strengths, it isn't necessarily the car that can get the most downforce. We know Red Bull price their efficiency highly on their car, while still being fast in pretty much all corner profiles. So AT may very well have attained the very maximum of downforce they could get, while still maintaining enough effiency to not lose completely out on the straits (but still being slower).

[CHT]

With 2 more races to go this season, RBR with MAX is still the only team that is consistently strong, while teams like Merc, Ferrari, Aston, and McLaren's performance were sort of like moving up and down from race to race. If this continues, RBR and MAX is going to be unbeatable. Among the top 4 teams behind RBR, McLaren seems to the the closest at the moment, with Lando regular 2nd place over the 2nd half of the season.

[selvam_e2002]

AMR and Alonso will be challenging RB next year.

[scuderiabrandon]

it is crazy how quickly opinions change in this thread. Recency bias is nuts.

[chrisc90]

McLaren for me. They made a MEGA MEGA jump with their latest update package to thereabouts 2nd fastest car on the grid from stone dead last. That's a concept that's shown to work and i'm sure with some tweaks and finessing they will make more gains.

Ferrari seem to have made a step forwards with their tyre deg but they still seem to be lacking the true race pace compared to McLaren.

Merc are going to come with a different concept next year, and they are going to need some time to understand it, what works and how best to upgrade.

AMR started strong but seemingly got stuck with TD's. 2024 will be the first year Dan Fallows has reins on the car through the winter period so be interesting to see what stamps he brought over from Red Bull.

Either way - RB are going to be making mega upgrades to their car most likely so there will be a improvement from them aswell, so the goal posts arent 'set' so to speak. We already know RB/Max are heavily lifting on straights and corners this season, so it begs the question of how much TRUE pace is left in that car without having to open the taps more with some pressure from behind.

A interesting question would have been, would RB have won the 2023 season with their 2022 car, and could the use the same car going forwards into 2024.

I’m still sticking by my thoughts nearly 2 month ago when the thread opened

[CHT]

During the early part of 2023, I remember reading an F1 commentator talking about Mclaren as the team to watch out for in 2023
Back then I didn't take that seriously. I cant remember who said that, could be Gary Anderson etc, but it will certainly be great to read it again.

[organic]

During the early part of 2023, I remember reading an F1 commentator talking about Mclaren as the team to watch out for in 2023
Back then I didn't take that seriously. I cant remember who said that, could be Gary Anderson etc, but it will certainly be great to read it again.

Hakkinen said that McLaren would be "in terms of the speed of the car, they will probably challenge Red Bull" back before the Austrian upgrade. I suspect he had some inside info from the team

"I don't think anyone is able to catch up [to Red Bull] this year," he told Unibet. "The only surprise I think we'll see is McLaren's possible progress during the next two months."

While McLaren seem to be some way off the quickest cars, he felt confident enough to add: "I think they will surprise us massively. Just in terms of the speed of the car, they will probably challenge Red Bull."

So he was pretty much spot on

[CHT]

During the early part of 2023, I remember reading an F1 commentator talking about Mclaren as the team to watch out for in 2023
Back then I didn't take that seriously. I cant remember who said that, could be Gary Anderson etc, but it will certainly be great to read it again.

Hakkinen said that McLaren would be "in terms of the speed of the car, they will probably challenge Red Bull" back before the Austrian upgrade. I suspect he had some inside info from the team

"I don't think anyone is able to catch up [to Red Bull] this year," he told Unibet. "The only surprise I think we'll see is McLaren's possible progress during the next two months."

While McLaren seem to be some way off the quickest cars, he felt confident enough to add: "I think they will surprise us massively. Just in terms of the speed of the car, they will probably challenge Red Bull."

So he was pretty much spot on

You are right, it was Hakkinen. He certainly still has good contact within Mclaren. Not sure if this was due to their new wind tunnel.

In the last 12 races since Austria, Lando has scored an average of 15.25 points per race (including some sprint race points). If Mclaren had started the season with the right footing, Lando could have scored 305 points by now, making him the closest contender to Max.

I think Lando will be a strong contender for 2024, perhaps not championship level but finishing P2 will certainly be possible.

https://www.planetf1.com/news/shock-red ... prediction

[diffuser]

You know it isn't really hard to chose McLaren. You start with only 10 teams , minus one cause it can't be RBR(9). You can easily drop Haas, Alfa, Alpha and Williams (5). Alpine fire a bunch of people(4). You're down a 1 in 4 chance. The chances are really low that it's not one of those 4.

You could also probably drop Aston cause they're "literally" still rebuilding for another year.

[CHT]

You know it isn't really hard to chose McLaren. You start with only 10 teams , minus one cause it can't be RBR(9). You can easily drop Haas, Alfa, Alpha and Williams (5). Alpine fire a bunch of people(4). You're down a 1 in 4 chance. The chances are really low that it's not one of those 4.

You could also probably drop Aston cause they're "literally" still rebuilding for another year.

Don't wish to delve too much into post-match critics' arguments,

In 2022 Mclaren finished 5th in the constructor, prior to the Austria race in 2023, Mclaren only had 19 constructor points from 8 races, behind RBR, Ferrari, Merc, Aston (154), Alpine (44 points)

The improvement Mclaren delivered before and after the Austrian race is at a totally different level. It's not the night-and-day type of improvement Merc experienced with the new floor at Austin.

[r85]

You know it isn't really hard to chose McLaren. You start with only 10 teams , minus one cause it can't be RBR(9). You can easily drop Haas, Alfa, Alpha and Williams (5). Alpine fire a bunch of people(4). You're down a 1 in 4 chance. The chances are really low that it's not one of those 4.

You could also probably drop Aston cause they're "literally" still rebuilding for another year.

Don't wish to delve too much into post-match critics' arguments,

In 2022 Mclaren finished 5th in the constructor, prior to the Austria race in 2023, Mclaren only had 19 constructor points from 8 races, behind RBR, Ferrari, Merc, Aston (154), Alpine (44 points)

The improvement Mclaren delivered before and after the Austrian race is at a totally different level. It's not the night-and-day type of improvement Merc experienced with the new floor at Austin.

McLaren changed their concept this year, while Mercedes turned the W14 into a testing ground for W15. James Allison did say that the new floor at Austin is there to aid development for next year, not to bring raw performance.

[franbatista123]

Maybe too much hopium, but i think Ferrari is still the team with most "potential" pace in the car and, just like Mercedes, hasn't had the chance to turn the car around due to needing a completely new chassis. When you consider that, i expect Mclaren to fall back to 4th best barring any mishaps from Ferrari and Mercedes.

[ali623]

I do think Ferrari and Mercedes have mainly been focusing on 2024 for the best part of the season now. McLaren have made a massive jump of course, but they've also brought a lot of upgrades.

If Mercedes and/or Ferrari get it right next season, I can see them being the main 2 again behind Red Bull initially in 2024. Followed by McLaren and maybe AM if they've worked out a direction.

[CHT]

Ferrari, Mercedes, and Mclaren are all very well-funded teams with pretty much equal resources, experience, capabilities, and talents to build championship-winning cars. Aston Martin's future is still a little uncertain as they are a very new team, perhaps the smallest and weakest among the 4.

Out of the 3 top contenders, I think McLaren will likely have an advantage due to the vast knowledge and experience running this year's cars. Plus they have a very good driver pairing who will be even better next year.

For Mercedes, they are ditching their design concept from the last 2 years and hoping to introduce a new challenger in 2024. Like in every new car, there will be plenty of surprises and lots of things to fix and improve. For sure, W15 will likely be the best-improved car for 2024, but it may not be the quickest. Personally, I also feel that there are cracks within the organization, and Mike Elliot's sudden departure at this critical time of the year cannot be good for the team. Come 2024, the runway to deliver 8WDC will by 2025 be shortened, there will be more pressure on the team if things don't up out well.

As for Ferrari, I think they will be a wild card, and team to watch in 2024 for sure.