Which team is most likely to catch redbull before 2026 discussion

[CHT]

I think 2024 may yet be another year of RBR domination simply because the RB19 is so aerodynamically well-balanced and planted that the team is able to introduce innovative design concepts to extract further performance from the car.

[JordanMugen]

Horner confirms that Red Bull started on the RB18 late:

The most significant thing that we were able to address was the weight because we were so late going on to the new regs in ’21, because of that championship battle, that the car in ’22 was a bit on the chunky side.

https://speedcafe.com/red-bull-reveal-w ... dominance/

Given this, it is curious that other race teams were not able to get the jump on RBR for the current rule set!

Or if they did start earlier, they developed concepts which were " wrong " rather than grounded in ground effects basics (pardon the pun) like good suspension design for aero platform control and minimising the sensitivity of downforce to ride height.

[diffuser]

Horner confirms that Red Bull started on the RB18 late:

The most significant thing that we were able to address was the weight because we were so late going on to the new regs in ’21, because of that championship battle, that the car in ’22 was a bit on the chunky side.

https://speedcafe.com/red-bull-reveal-w ... dominance/

Given this, it is curious that other race teams were not able to get the jump on RBR for the current rule set!

Or if they did start earlier, they developed concepts which were " wrong " rather than grounded in ground effects basics (pardon the pun) like good suspension design for aero platform control and minimising the sensitivity of downforce to ride height.

Well Merc had a rear suspension/gearbox limitation on the floor that would have atleast harmed them and Aston Martin. Merc started the year with a concept that was completely foreign to the direction they were going in at the year end. So over and above the rear suspension/gearbox issues, they must have had limitations in the sidpods and such. In fact you could add McLaren to that group as well as their design concept changed significantly from the beginning of the year. Alpine is lost and Ferrari spent the year trying to figure out their tire degrading issues. RBR was way ahead at the end of the 2022 season. IF they didn't do much in the off season, the other big teams went backwards. Which is always worse.

[AR3-GP]

Horner confirms that Red Bull started on the RB18 late:

The most significant thing that we were able to address was the weight because we were so late going on to the new regs in ’21, because of that championship battle, that the car in ’22 was a bit on the chunky side.

https://speedcafe.com/red-bull-reveal-w ... dominance/

Given this, it is curious that other race teams were not able to get the jump on RBR for the current rule set!

Or if they did start earlier, they developed concepts which were " wrong " rather than grounded in ground effects basics (pardon the pun) like good suspension design for aero platform control and minimising the sensitivity of downforce to ride height.

Well Merc had a rear suspension/gearbox limitation on the floor that would have atleast harmed them and Aston Martin. Merc started the year with a concept that was completely foreign to the direction they were going in at the year end. So over and above the rear suspension/gearbox issues, they must have had limitations in the sidpods and such. In fact you could add McLaren to that group as well as their design concept changed significantly from the beginning of the year. Alpine is lost and Ferrari spent the year trying to figure out their tire degrading issues. RBR was way ahead at the end of the 2022 season. IF they didn't do much in the off season, the other big teams went backwards. Which is always worse.

Rb developed the bulk of their narrow gearbox architecture for the 2021 season and only refined that for '22. So it shows the others had already started to fall behind before '22.

[Xyz22]

Horner confirms that Red Bull started on the RB18 late:

The most significant thing that we were able to address was the weight because we were so late going on to the new regs in ’21, because of that championship battle, that the car in ’22 was a bit on the chunky side.

https://speedcafe.com/red-bull-reveal-w ... dominance/

Given this, it is curious that other race teams were not able to get the jump on RBR for the current rule set!

Or if they did start earlier, they developed concepts which were " wrong " rather than grounded in ground effects basics (pardon the pun) like good suspension design for aero platform control and minimising the sensitivity of downforce to ride height.

Not really. Newey will always dominate when his car doesn't have a significant engine deficit.
The RB18 only had one problem: weight. When they got rid of it they started dominating with 0 effort.

[mendis]

Horner confirms that Red Bull started on the RB18 late:

The most significant thing that we were able to address was the weight because we were so late going on to the new regs in ’21, because of that championship battle, that the car in ’22 was a bit on the chunky side.

https://speedcafe.com/red-bull-reveal-w ... dominance/

Given this, it is curious that other race teams were not able to get the jump on RBR for the current rule set!

Or if they did start earlier, they developed concepts which were " wrong " rather than grounded in ground effects basics (pardon the pun) like good suspension design for aero platform control and minimising the sensitivity of downforce to ride height.

Not really. Newey will always dominate when his car doesn't have a significant engine deficit.
The RB18 only had one problem: weight. When they got rid of it they started dominating with 0 effort.

I agree. I don't think any team can beat RB on Chassis (aero & mechanical). It's simply a better place compared to other team's setup. Even in 2021, when engines seemed fairly even, RB16B was ahead and only in the last few races when Mercedes turned up the engine power was when they got some advantage. So long as the engine power remains a constant, RB will always be ahead on Chassis as they seem to better design winning concepts and evolve them even better than others. Hence others starting development earlier doesn't seem to affect RB or as proven this year, having wind tunnel and CFD penalty also doesn't affect their working in the current regulations.

[diffuser]

Horner confirms that Red Bull started on the RB18 late:

https://speedcafe.com/red-bull-reveal-w ... dominance/

Given this, it is curious that other race teams were not able to get the jump on RBR for the current rule set!

Or if they did start earlier, they developed concepts which were " wrong " rather than grounded in ground effects basics (pardon the pun) like good suspension design for aero platform control and minimising the sensitivity of downforce to ride height.

Well Merc had a rear suspension/gearbox limitation on the floor that would have atleast harmed them and Aston Martin. Merc started the year with a concept that was completely foreign to the direction they were going in at the year end. So over and above the rear suspension/gearbox issues, they must have had limitations in the sidpods and such. In fact you could add McLaren to that group as well as their design concept changed significantly from the beginning of the year. Alpine is lost and Ferrari spent the year trying to figure out their tire degrading issues. RBR was way ahead at the end of the 2022 season. IF they didn't do much in the off season, the other big teams went backwards. Which is always worse.

Rb developed the bulk of their narrow gearbox architecture for the 2021 season and only refined that for '22. So it shows the others had already started to fall behind before '22.

Not that RB aren't ahead....The problem isn't the gearbox changes being complex. The problem is the rules limiting changes in season on them and that merc gearbox was designed for some other aero demands.

[Stu]

Creating a suspension system that provides excellent platform control with only 4 dampers really helps.
While the others catch up with that RB will be quietly tackling the compromises that come with that.
In this current formula outright downforce is not king, control of the aero platform & contact patch forces rule.

[chrisc90]

Look how quickly RB got on top of the bouncing scenario.

Wasn’t it literally overnight they said they were coming with some different suspension dampers 2 years ago at the Bahrain test and day 2 of the test was literally all sorted. Others took months and months to get control of the bouncing.

[diffuser]

Creating a suspension system that provides excellent platform control with only 4 dampers really helps.
While the others catch up with that RB will be quietly tackling the compromises that come with that.
In this current formula outright downforce is not king, control of the aero platform & contact patch forces rule.

There is always the chance that someone comes up with a better mouse trap.

[organic]

Creating a suspension system that provides excellent platform control with only 4 dampers really helps.
While the others catch up with that RB will be quietly tackling the compromises that come with that.
In this current formula outright downforce is not king, control of the aero platform & contact patch forces rule.

There is always the chance that someone comes up with a better mouse trap.

Absolutely. Do we get the feeling many teams are in the position to do that? Only McLaren seem to have been on the right track for a significant length of time.

Ferrari only demonstrated their ability to solve some instability at the end of '23 and until then had seemingly progressively made their car worse in many ways since launching the f1-75. Correct trajectory with one upgrade isn't enough for me to be confident in them

James Allison's recent interviews don't fill me with confidence for them. He mentions technical decisions as though they are gambles. Of course there's an element of that, but to me I get the feeling they're guessing on decisions that others are understanding why they're choosing certain things

AMR's failures in '23 and struggles to get to grips with their various car specs feels like major correlation issues throughout '23 which will be enough to have pegged them back quite some way and the ambitions of Krack/Alonso ahead of '24 seem to reflect that.

McLaren seem to me to be the ones that have the opportunity to nail the RB approach of controlling the ride first and foremost better than the original. They've had a ridiculously steep development rate.. But they do have the problem of having to focus on making a significantly more efficient car next year, which Ferrari and AMR have proven in '23 is very difficult to achieve without disrupting the fine balance of car characteristics

But all of the teams above also have a fair bit more wind tunnel and CFD than RB, especially macca and amr.. and we've perhaps not seen merc/ferrari operate without their hands tied behind their backs by chassis decisions made before 2022. It seems every team carried over a huge amount at the chassis level and couldn't completely abandon their car's overall plan from '22 in 2023. The 4 year cycle has encouraged all of them into two 2-year development cycles according to what various teams have said (allison, horner, Harman)

[KimiRai]

Creating a suspension system that provides excellent platform control with only 4 dampers really helps.
While the others catch up with that RB will be quietly tackling the compromises that come with that.
In this current formula outright downforce is not king, control of the aero platform & contact patch forces rule.

There is always the chance that someone comes up with a better mouse trap.

Absolutely. Do we get the feeling many teams are in the position to do that? Only McLaren seem to have been on the right track for a significant length of time.

Ferrari only demonstrated their ability to solve some instability at the end of '23 and until then had seemingly progressively made their car worse in many ways since launching the f1-75. Correct trajectory with one upgrade isn't enough for me to be confident in them

James Allison's recent interviews don't fill me with confidence for them. He mentions technical decisions as though they are gambles. Of course there's an element of that, but to me I get the feeling they're guessing on decisions that others are understanding why they're choosing certain things

AMR's failures in '23 and struggles to get to grips with their various car specs feels like major correlation issues throughout '23 which will be enough to have pegged them back quite some way and the ambitions of Krack/Alonso ahead of '24 seem to reflect that.

McLaren seem to me to be the ones that have the opportunity to nail the RB approach of controlling the ride first and foremost better than the original. They've had a ridiculously steep development rate.. But they do have the problem of having to focus on making a significantly more efficient car next year, which Ferrari and AMR have proven in '23 is very difficult to achieve without disrupting the fine balance of car characteristics

But all of the teams above also have a fair bit more wind tunnel and CFD than RB, especially macca and amr.. and we've perhaps not seen merc/ferrari operate without their hands tied behind their backs by chassis decisions made before 2022. It seems every team carried over a huge amount at the chassis level and couldn't completely abandon their car's overall plan from '22 in 2023. The 4 year cycle has encouraged all of them into two 2-year development cycles according to what various teams have said (allison, horner, Harman)

If I could upvote this post I would... great summary of everything. Are McLaren aiming at greatly improving their aero efficiency for 2024? I agree they are the best positioned for the start of next season out of those teams , but they should be careful since that does tend to destroy the balance of cars such as what happened with Aston

[taperoo2k]

Creating a suspension system that provides excellent platform control with only 4 dampers really helps.
While the others catch up with that RB will be quietly tackling the compromises that come with that.
In this current formula outright downforce is not king, control of the aero platform & contact patch forces rule.

There is always the chance that someone comes up with a better mouse trap.

Absolutely. Do we get the feeling many teams are in the position to do that? Only McLaren seem to have been on the right track for a significant length of time.

McLaren look to be in a good position to at least catch Red Bull.

Ferrari only demonstrated their ability to solve some instability at the end of '23 and until then had seemingly progressively made their car worse in many ways since launching the f1-75. Correct trajectory with one upgrade isn't enough for me to be confident in them

Ferrari do seem a bit lost, but who knows?

James Allison's recent interviews don't fill me with confidence for them. He mentions technical decisions as though they are gambles. Of course there's an element of that, but to me I get the feeling they're guessing on decisions that others are understanding why they're choosing certain things

That's expectation management sprinkled with the truth. They won't know if they have gone in the right direction until the car rolls out of the garage for it's first real world test.

AMR's failures in '23 and struggles to get to grips with their various car specs feels like major correlation issues throughout '23 which will be enough to have pegged them back quite some way and the ambitions of Krack/Alonso ahead of '24 seem to reflect that.

They have a very slim chance of catching Red Bull. As long as they've learned from what they got right last year and the mistakes made they will improve as a team.

McLaren seem to me to be the ones that have the opportunity to nail the RB approach of controlling the ride first and foremost better than the original. They've had a ridiculously steep development rate.. But they do have the problem of having to focus on making a significantly more efficient car next year, which Ferrari and AMR have proven in '23 is very difficult to achieve without disrupting the fine balance of car characteristics

McLaren have the infrastructure and technical expertise to catch Red Bull. Rob Marshall's experience will probably help McLaren get the best out of its suspension setup for the 2024 car. He's a seasoned professional so I expect he'll hit the ground running.

But all of the teams above also have a fair bit more wind tunnel and CFD than RB, especially macca and amr.. and we've perhaps not seen merc/ferrari operate without their hands tied behind their backs by chassis decisions made before 2022. It seems every team carried over a huge amount at the chassis level and couldn't completely abandon their car's overall plan from '22 in 2023. The 4 year cycle has encouraged all of them into two 2-year development cycles according to what various teams have said (allison, horner, Harman)

It's how teams use that extra wind tunnel and CFD time that matters. The current regulations caught a lot of the teams on the hop. We'll see if any can catch up with Red Bull. I'm not so sure Newey's interpretation of the rules is the best one. We'll find out either way by the end of 2025.

[CHT]

I read that the current generation of F1 cars is unpredictable and difficult to set up, and drivers will often need to change their driving style from race to race just to get the maximum out of the car. And Max seems to be able to do that very well.

Perhaps those drivers who are expecting a perfect setup to perform will likely struggle during qualifying.

[r85]

Might be late to the party but I read a comment in the RB20 thread saying that Vasseur, Allison and RB members stating that the cars are built in 2 year cycles, so the 2024 cars will have very little carryover from 2022/23. It's a golden opportunity for the non-RB teams to challenge RB for the title if they get their cars right.