segedunum wrote:The writing was on the wall at Canada with what McLaren had to do with Hamilton just to bump a Red Bull off pole - put the softs on and put so little fuel in that he couldn't make it back. All that was on a circuit that should have been firm McLaren territory and where Red Bull had no F-duct. McLaren made an extremely wise and well thought out tyre choice in the end but the performance in qualifying and even the race of the RB was beyond what I expected.
People really overplay the benefit he had from not making it back to the pits, quoting things like 0.2 seconds advantage by not carrying a laps worth of fuel. This conveniently overlooks that he actually made it most of the way back round that final lap so in fact was just one straight away from the pits. So even being generous the most he benefitted from would be around 0.05s, and he stuck it on pole by way more than that.
Then in the race the Red Bulls just did not have the pace. Their tyre strategy was clearly wrong, but this cost Webber much more than Vettel who, even before his gearbox issues, just was not going to make much impression on the race. The McLaren's and Alonso had both Red Bulls beaten on pure race pace.
segedunum wrote:They have more downforce than everyone else and will have for some time based on the catch up other teams are doing, and all they really need is a few kph in straight line speed where they're deficient. Half a second in qualifying at Valencia means that the speed advantage they have has hardly been dented. The next few races look very firm RB territory and there is not a great deal anyone can do about it. Small wonder Alonso was having a daydream at the back of Vettel's car.
All in all, I've seen nothing to suggest that my prediction, and that of Gary Anderson, that many teams' focus on the F-duct wasn't bringing anything tangible when there are obviously far more other fruitful areas of development.
You have no idea when the other teams will catch up - until Q3 things were looking very tight but fortunately for Red Bull the others slipped up with scruffy laps.
Red Bull now have their F-duct and it clearly helped their pace on this circuit giving them a slight edge over the McLarens. Just like everyone predicted that this circuit would be a McLaren circuit, the next race is predicted to be Red Bull track but that's not taking into account the upgrades due on the cars.
In Barcelona, supposedly another perfect Red Bull circuit, the bulls dominated qualifying but in the race Hamilton was comfortably the second quickest to Webber. Since then RB have their F-duct and McLaren will have their blown diffuser and appear to have improved their qualifying pace (not to RB's level, but a lot closer). Ferrari will no doubt have revisions in place with their blown exhaust, so I expect them to be closer still to RB as well, as long as Alonso doesn't make another Saturday mistake.
So in Silverstone, barring any unusual incidents or mechanical issues, I predict another RB 1 - 2 in qualifying, albeit only by a couple of tenths, but in the race Hamilton will pressure them the entire way and will either get past both (if the new section really does help overtaking) or splits the RB's on the podium.
But from Hockenheim onwards as McLaren optimise their blown diffuser I believe they'll start occasionally out qualifying the Red Bulls as well as taking race wins off of them. Even at Spa.
Let's see if I'm any better at predictions than you have been!
