As a follow-up...
I'd say we can all agree that grip and wear change depending on what kinda surface you drive on, and how much downforce you have (among many other things).
Are you going to be able to confidently say what kind of surface you're going to drive on at the next race? How much has the track degraded since the last race? Have any patches been made? Will there be rubber laid down from a previous race or series? Will there be rain that washes some of it off? For a street course like Monaco, how much dirt and grime from regular street traffic will there be? How long will that last?
How hot will the track surface be? That certainly has an effect on things, no? Will it be sunny? Cloudy? Can alter the track temp immensely. Will it be sunny for the first half of the race and cloudy afterward?
What is the air temperature going to be that day? Density of air might be 1.2250 at 15C and 1.1839 at 25C. That's a 3.5% difference... if you have a car with 6000 lbf (~27kN) of downforce, that can be a change of 200 lbf (~1 kN)!! Likewise with the change in drag you'll have a different aerodynamic moment My, and front-to-rear balance.
So if we return to this question...
raymondu999 wrote:I wonder if they can correctly simulate things such as tyre wear and graining though... Those are, after all, quite crucial parts of the race weekend, if not in terms of outright pace, in terms of the pitstop strategy etc
You tell me Raymond, do you think they can accurately simulate and
predict those things?
As I'm a fan of saying... creating math models on historical data is one thing. Forward prediction is another.
Grip is a four letter word. All opinions are my own and not those of current or previous employers.