F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

[mbvinnie]

I think as a future 3 time world champ he is immensely immature and acts like a cry baby quite a lot of times.
Sure he´s happy and stuff when things go well, that´s normal. If i had a couple of millions in the bank and was an F1 driver i would also be as happy as they come.

Right, I agree, the way he throws his toys out the pram when things aren't going right is pretty disgusting.

Kinda like Alonso 'throwing his toys' against Schumi in qualy.
Everyone can point to single examples to make their point. Pretty much no one can be unbiased enough to see all the points against and for each driver. I am not saying I can, but it appears you clearly can't.

VET, HAM and ALO are all 3 very good drivers. There are arguments for all 3 to 'deserve' the World Championship (whatever that means). They are all decent guys who when put under the microscope exhibit behaviour that is less than perfect - in other words they are human. It was a great race. Enjoy the finale in Brazil.

[mnmracer]

Well, there are 101 possible different scenario's:
1st to 10th for either driver (excluding same position) makes (9x9=)81.
Plus 1st to 10th for one driver, with the other driver no points.

Of those 101 scenario's, only 13 give Alonso the chance to win the title.
So mathematically, a 13%, or 1:8 chance.

Now the only realistic uncertainty here is reliability.

[WhiteBlue]

WDC odds:
Vettel 1:1.22 = 82%
Alonso 1:5.5 = 18%

[bhall]

[...]

Of those 101 scenario's, only 13 give Alonso the chance to win the title.
So mathematically, a 13%, or 1:8 chance.

[...]

WDC odds:
[...]
Alonso 1:5.5 = 18%

Well, dammit, which is it? The (sorta) statistically sound mathematic odds or the (not at all) statistically sound betting odds?

This is soooooo confusing.

[WhiteBlue]

Well, there appears to be 4.5 times more betting money on Vettel. Not that it has any technical or sporting implications. It just shows what the majority of the punters think about the likely outcome. Most commentators would probably agree that Vettel will have the faster car. He hasn't made any mistakes in the last three years when the championship deciding races were up. So it will likely be a lottery type event that would lead to Alonso taking the WDC instead of Vettel. Such things are impossible to predict.