McLaren had lots of rumors at the end of 2012 that Vodaphone would leave this year, however they have stayed, reducing their exposure from €60m down to €40m, however that have GSK onboard now with a €55m exposure. However there is about 4 or 5 'Mexican/South American' brands due to appear this year for about a estimated combined fee of €50m.
Mercedes want €40m to cancel their deal with McLaren before the start of 2015. I suggest that this deal will be done before the end of the 2013 will be the end of the Mercedes and Mclaren marrage. Its going to be a messy devorce, but whoever gets the CDs is anybodys guess. Also the relationship between Mobil1 and Mercedes isnt as great as it once was as Mercedes are using Petronas for customer engines. Mobil1 are keeping the relatiionship cordial & professional. Mobil1 are now only supporting McLaren.
Ill propose that Honda will be back in 2014, with probably two teams, Im looking at Mclaren and Williams or Lotus. My reasoning will become clear.
Renault are looking at no more than 5 teams, but 4 teams would be ideal. Red Bull will be their works team, Caterham have the Alpine road car deal and will be paying a half rate for their engines, it looks like Toro Rosso will pick up them as well, both Caterham and Toro Rosso will gain the Red Bull gearbox as well. This looks like either Williams or Lotus will be left in the cold.
Ferrari will have Scuderia as the works team with Sauber and probably now Marussia as the third team, both with the Ferrari rear end. Sauber will pay top money for their engine, but Marussia will most probably have a reduction on their engine if Ferrari need to keep Jules Bianchi warm, as its also another car that that can be used to slow down a Bull or another title challenger if needed.
As for Mercedes, its looking like it will be Mercedes AMG and Force India who will use their engine now. However the reason may not be fully clear for a while, probably down to money.
As for Williams and Lotus, both liveries have a history with Honda at one point in their life. Lotus nee Renault i think will stay with Renault as they long term ties to Renault power since 1995, even the Supertec years were rebadged Renaults, and i think this will remain unbroken, however they will have to pay the Renault estimated €20m for the RS34-2014 power plant, ERS and support team an increase from €8m this year. As for Williams, theres also a more romantic image there with WIlliams and Honda, id also suggest that Cannon may even get back on board as well with plenty of other companies, Mobil1 will probably come as well as fuel/lubricants supplier as well.
Id suggest that Vodaphone McLaren Honda will be back in 2014 for the reasons that McLaren can ditch the silver and go with a new livery, Honda can gain access to Perez and the South American market, also get back with Button who was massivly popular in Japan, more popular than Taku Sato some said. It also gains McLaren access to the Japaneese market for marketing too for their road car devision.
Williams will most likley go with Honda as Honda will be too romantic for them, they will posibly have a quick Fin at the wheel of one car and a fast South Amercan or a quick Brit as well. Honda will need a second team to take engines, and its all about the image as well. Honda will do this for their car sales, the teams will do it for romantic reasons.
This is the reason Honda will be back; the romantic image for their car sales:
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