The Fanboy Yin Yang Thread

[SidSidney]

A BS metric made up to fulfill a BS bias

I am quite open-minded to alternative ideas/calculations.

Can you show me the working behind Hamilton becoming a multiple WDC?

[SidSidney]

Senna is an interesting one. Overall he is low, like 60%-70%. But a) his career was cut short in his prime, and b) his stats were changing markedly before his crash:

1989: 46% (6 wins, 13 poles)
1990: 60% (6 wins, 10 poles)
1991: 87% (7 wins, 8 poles)
1992: 300% (3 wins, 1 pole)
1993: 500% (5 wins, 1 pole, against Prost in the Williams)

1994: 0% (0 wins, 3 poles, against Schumacher in the Benetton)

That season could have ended at 13 wins, 3 poles: 433%.

But we'll never know, sadly. I went to the tribute behind the Tamburello barriers at Imola a few years ago, brought that weekend back vividly.

[Powershift]

Can you show me the working behind Hamilton becoming a multiple WDC?

What does that even mean? When a driver has more points at the end of the season than every other driver they are WDC, if they do that in multiple seasons then they are multiple WDC, isn't that quite apparent?

Your BS metric has HAM and BUT on opposite ends of the spectrum yet they are both 1xWDC at the moment, similarly it has Senna and Prost at opposite ends of the spectrum yet they are both multiple WDC... that right there is enough to show you it is quite a worthless metric.

[SidSidney]

Oh one last thing.. Your choice of words "stuffing it up strategically" reveals your motives anyway. No need for BS stats veiled with the cool cucumber approach.

I have clearly upset you, and for that I apologise. My motives were not to suggest Hamilton is an idiot (in that regard I think he does himself no favours in what he says publically, but I don't really care as long as he drives like he does) but rather to explore how to identify which drivers might be in line to win lots of WDC in the future. I just picked two examples. I also mentioned Alonso and Button by the way. Apologies again for upsetting you.

[SectorOne]

Can you show me the working behind Hamilton becoming a multiple WDC?

He could have easily won the 2012 world championship but things outside his control put the brakes on that.

- retires from the lead three times due to things out of his control (two engine failure plus Hulkenberg crashing into him)
- lost several positions on several occasions due to pit stop issues.
- underfuelled in Spain effectively destroying any chance of winning the race.
- Maldonado going off track then enters it straight into Hamilton (Grosjean proved going around the outside of Hamilton is fully possible given the fact that you do it right)

Even the most hardcore vettel fan would agree that without Hamilton´s incredible bad luck in 2012 he would have been champion by quite some margin. (relative to how it actually ended with the small point spread between Vettel and Alonso)

That season could have ended at 13 wins, 3 poles: 433%.

Or it could have ended up 13 poles no wins. 0% as the pattern started to show from the start.

[SidSidney]

Can you show me the working behind Hamilton becoming a multiple WDC?

What does that even mean? When a driver has more points at the end of the season than every other driver they are WDC, if they do that in multiple seasons then they are multiple WDC, isn't that quite apparent?

I meant as a forecast. Sorry for confusing you - I thought that it was clear I was trying to predict outcomes.

[Powershift]

Can you show me the working behind Hamilton becoming a multiple WDC?

What does that even mean? When a driver has more points at the end of the season than every other driver they are WDC, if they do that in multiple seasons then they are multiple WDC, isn't that quite apparent?

I meant as a forecast. Sorry for confusing you - I thought that it was clear I was trying to predict outcomes.

well he has already proven that he is capable of winning the WDC, several even

[SidSidney]

That season could have ended at 13 wins, 3 poles: 433%.

Or it could have ended up 13 poles no wins. 0% as the pattern started to show from the start.

An excellent counterpoint (did you mean 16 poles?).

But we will never know; and since it's incomplete across the season, that specific data becomes somewhat less interesting to compare within the sequence.

This was fun. Next time I will post my ideas on why diesel is actually better in an F1 engine than high octane petrol...

[SectorOne]

and since it's incomplete across the season, that specific data becomes somewhat less interesting to compare within the sequence.

It´s only less interesting because it goes completely against your "theory" which doesn´t take into account anything really.

The 2013 Mercedes W05 is a brilliant example of something that is being ignored by your theory.

[rifrafs2kees]

After a painful 2012 AUS i think Hamilton will bring this home with Rosberg completing the 1-2.

Despite getting poles galore, Hamilton has a bit of a habit of stuffing it up strategically/tactically during the race, then being mystified at what happened. That costs him dearly in the annual WDC hunt and ultimately his full career achievement.

I always like to look at what I call "pole conversion" to gauge if a guy has a the goods for multiple WDCs: what fraction of pole positions convert to victories?

It's not a hard rule but drivers like Lauda, Prost, Schumacher, & Alonso convert better than unity i.e. more than one victory per pole. That implies something other than just having the fastest car for single lap qualifying speed - they can create victories through some other in-race strategy than just having the fastest car on the day.

Vettel converts at 87%, but I believe that will strongly rise over his full career. The easiest way to change that stat positively is to stop getting poles . That sounds stupid, I know, but I think he has started to figure out why that matters, as I will explain below, and Hamilton has not yet done so.

Hamilton is converting at something like 70% right now. Again that could rise, but he's already behind the curve: even gaining pole and winning all 19 races this year only improves him to 82%. Over a full career, that's probably inadequate for a multiple WDC winner. Again, if he could hold off winning poles, and maybe work on his race strategy, he would improve that ratio drastically - just defocussing the qualifying effort, by winning only 4 poles, but re-focussing on the strategy to win half the races, pushes him into an entirely different orbit, close to unity. More importantly it would indicate a new, more mature way of thinking.

You could easily argue this is just a BS ratio, but I think it indicates another level of thinking, somebody who has matured from pure hotshoe single lap speed to thinking a race through from beginning to end - the tortoise, not the hare. Hamilton in my opinion is still the hare. But look at the last couple of season and you will see that Vettel is starting to think like a wise old turtle: 144% conversion in 2013, compared to 83% in 2012, and just 73% in 2011...

Of course this is not foolproof - you can easily find examples like Button who have low numbers in both categories but staggering percentages, like 200%+. But again, as someone who raced Jenson back in the day, I think that number still indicates an ability to take a slower car and hump it into first place at a strike rate that is probably signifcantly better than pure luck.

This is a BS ratio.

Nah, seriously though - you have to pro forma for races where the driver had to retire from the lead, did not have a car to win races (W04 was not a race winning car 80% of the time); happened to Vettel and Lewis quite a lot over the past few years. For Lewis:

2013 Silverstone - was cruising towards a win and had a tyre blow out
2012 Abu Dhabi - retired from lead
2012 Singapore - retired from lead

Also, given that last year his car had no business winning races given (i) the Pirellis in the first half of the season and (ii) the resurgence of RBR in the second half of the season. The W04 was a rocketship on Saturday but an okay car on Sunday. That also has to be taken into account; there is nothing that Lewis could have done to win all the races he didn't win from pole - other cars were just that much faster.

And you resort to the cliche about Lewis being the biggest dumbf*ck in F1... #please

In pointing out important statistics that shed light on where carriers are headed, Sid has become the target of some of Hamilton's unobjective supporters. Hamilton's skills behind the wheel have never been in question. Contrary to rumor that he's not technically sound, I think he's actually one of the best at extracting the most from the technology at his disposal(Button's reliance on his setup as compass partially supports this assertion). All Sid is saying is that if Hamilton's judgement was on par with say Alonso's or Button's, his stats and his WDC standing would look a lot better than it does now. And for goodness sake, let's not suggest that Mclaren's cock ups absolve Hamilton of the charge.

Korea 2013...burns through his tires and upsets race strategy..ends up loosing positions as a result. At this point, it's not exactly news to anyone that that the pirelli''s need to be babied.
Hungary 2011...Spins from an error and losses his cool...becomes one of the very few to get on inters in slightly wet conditions...loses more positions as a result..(i won't knock him for not winning...even the best spin every now and then...it's his reaction that 's wanting)
Malaysia 2011...locks up badly and damages race tires....has a torrid race as a result...
Spa 2008...drives off track for a moment..results in loss of 1st place..fairly or unjustly...however, it's far wiser to cover all basis than expect fair treatment from others.

I can go on and on as his carrier is littered with these. This is not to say the other top drivers don't have their share of mistakes...Hamilton's are just disproportionately more frequent. Even beyond isolated events, one can contrast Hamilton's approach to racing with that of the others and see where improvements can be made. It's so beautiful to watch Alonso just hang back and preserve his tires as further insurance in addition to pace, that he is able to clear the guy he's pursuing. However, it is quite common to see Hamilton rush events only to burn his tires and rather give his opponents relief and leave himself in the clutches of those following.

And for the record, I became more interested in F1 because of Hamilton. He's who I support. But the truth is, if I found myself in his camp, I'd be doing him a major disservice if I didn't point out that he could improve little things for huge rewards

[Mr Alcatraz]

Here is my bro prediction for the race .
Hamilton
Rossberg
Hulkenberg
Alonso
Riccardo
Mag
Massa
Perez
Bottas
Button.
Vettel
Kyvat
Kimi
Vergne
Slash

[djos]

Dan has proven without a doubt that he is deserving of the RBR drive, that was a superb drive in a car clearly lacking power compared to the Mercs! (Great drive from all three podium getters)

[gingernibbler]

Gotta agree with djos,
Dan's throttle control was far superb to Seb, best shown in P3 where Seb hit the wall and couldn't deal with the tailwind taking D/F away. Looks like Seb just plants his right foot.

Obviously Redbull will develop a throttle map/ERS harvesting to allow Seb to do what he normally does thus taking the throttle control out of the equation.
Was nice to see and kind of confirmed the rumours of Redbull using throttle maps/Kers harvesting to simulate T/C.

Best throttle control out there looks like Fernando, that Ferrari looks a beast as power comes in

[el-Magico]

Vettel was only fast due to engine blown diffusers..
Webber always out performered Vettel when the EBD wasn't optimal fine tuned..

Nevertheless many say that Vettel is good at adopting to changes, so I think it will not take long before he is on top of his game..

[Manoah2u]

Dan has proven without a doubt that he is deserving of the RBR drive, that was a superb drive in a car clearly lacking power compared to the Mercs! (Great drive from all three podium getters)

+2, Danny drove fabulous, and had a mighy upper hand over vettel all weekend. He was right up there all weekend, constantly pumping out good times and despite the 'fuel flow issue', he homed that RB at the front very strong.

Vettel was absolutely nowhere and was a crying little annoyed pup behaving rediculous. I'm sure there were some technical issues there, yes. But at the same moment, Danny clearly feels the car much better then Seb, despite the car essentially is 'built' for Seb.

I'm enjoying seb getting a taste of what Webber constantly had himself now - atleast webber showed class. Webber got annoyed, but seb already is puking over his own team. His attitude is not pretty, expected better, even from him.

I hope Danny will win next race.