2014/15 Silly Season

[Moose]

If the best seat on the grid becomes available, he will take it.

Given the development momentum that Ferrari has, it may not be trivially seen as "the best seat".

[ScottB]

If Hamilton left Merc they'd take Bottas, through the Toto connection, or Alonso would fake his own death to get out of his Mclaren deal...

I don't see Lewis leaving though. Merc will be either the best, or one of the best cars until there is a major regs change at least, he's well placed to win the title this year and next, and if the post 2017 rules are still based around the current V6, as is likely, he'll most probably still be well placed.

I think it's more likely he leaves the sport than leaves Merc to be honest.

[ME4ME]

All rumors aside, from Hamilton's point of view, In my opinion he should move to Ferrari.

In all likelihood he will win the championship this year with Mercedes. That would make him a 3-time WDC, with two iconic teams. It's pretty clear now, facts don't lie, that he is a step ahead of Rosberg. The only thing he could gain by staying at Mercedes is more world championships, which will secure him his place in history books for the numbers and stats, but doesn't automatically make him perceived as one of the greatest drivers in history.

On the other hand, If he would move to Ferrari, there is all kind of reputation gains he could make. Going up against Vettel, the 4-time champion, Hamilton could potentially prove he is better in the same machinery. He could take a WDC with another different team, THE most iconic teams of all.

Obviously there is no guarantee that Ferrari would deliver a championship capable car in 2016/17/18, but neither is Mercedes guaranteed to stay the best. In fact, In my opinion Mercedes advantages and dominance is party due to Hamiltons stellar performance, his qualifying in Australia is a good example of that.

If you want to be the best, you must beat the best. Number of championships is obviously important. But I think perception of greatness is more important to Hamilton, afterall his hero is Senna, not Schumacher.

[Just_a_fan]

Interesting. Would winning this year and next year - making him a 4-times champion but in two teams not make him "better" than Vettel who only won in one team (so far)?

I have no idea of the answer to that as I don't know how one defines "better" in these cases. Are Lauda and Piquet "better" than Senna and Stewart because they won their three titles with more than one team? Most people would put Senna ahead of Piquet, for example, but why?

I think playing the whole "driver A is better than driver B" is a dangerous*/tricky*/difficult*/unwise* game when the two drivers' stats are quite comparable in almost all areas.

(* delete as appropriate)

[Gaz.]

If Hamilton left Merc they'd take Bottas, through the Toto connection, or Alonso would fake his own death to get out of his Mclaren deal...

I don't see Lewis leaving though. Merc will be either the best, or one of the best cars until there is a major regs change at least, he's well placed to win the title this year and next, and if the post 2017 rules are still based around the current V6, as is likely, he'll most probably still be well placed.

I think it's more likely he leaves the sport than leaves Merc to be honest.

He doesn't need to fake his own death, Alonso has a performance clause in his contract that Mclaren have to be in a certain position in the WCC by a certain date. I wasn't told the position or the date but I doubt it is miles off other historic clauses such as 3rd in WCC by October 1st or something similar to that.

[PlatinumZealot]

I doubt Ferrari will be able to manage the aspiration of 2 World Champions. Hamilton to Ferrari is out of question whereas Bothas looks like a good partner for Vettel at Ferrari. Long way to go so till that time let the fun of speculations go on.

The way I see it, Ferrari is on a big program of getting back their image of being the best at everything; best car, best team, best engineers, best driver. And, Hamilton, at least for the moment, is looking like the Schumacher type character they need. Everybody from outside the sport is seeing this "Hamilton dominates" in the headlines, and the problem for Ferrari, is Hamilton is wearing a Mercedes jumpsuit.

Vettel has dominated before, but he problem is that he already shows signs of weakness that Schumacher never did during his time at Ferrari. Vettel has been outpaced by kimi in the races (for different reasons of course), he has made mistakes and we all know he goes off the boil when the car doesn't suit him. Too many weaknesses.. I think Ferrari, hate him or love him, only want Hamilton if it is only for the image that he exudes. Just my opinion of course.

[Manoah2u]

Interesting. Would winning this year and next year - making him a 4-times champion but in two teams not make him "better" than Vettel who only won in one team (so far)?

I have no idea of the answer to that as I don't know how one defines "better" in these cases. Are Lauda and Piquet "better" than Senna and Stewart because they won their three titles with more than one team? Most people would put Senna ahead of Piquet, for example, but why?

I think playing the whole "driver A is better than driver B" is a dangerous*/tricky*/difficult*/unwise* game when the two drivers' stats are quite comparable in almost all areas.

(* delete as appropriate)

I don't think you can really judge Senna as he was killed in '94 whilst still having many years of WDC to come. Despite that williams being a hell to drive and factually killing him, he could have had his 4th title in the Williams in 94 actually. I recall somewhere reading that his intention was to go to Ferrari past '95, and that his death opened up the chance for Schuamacher to go there instead in 96.

Before getting carried away, let's first see Hamilton catch that 3rd WDC title this year. For all that matters, there's still the possibility of Vettel clinging his 5th WDC title with Ferrari this year already. Likely not, possibily yes.

[PlatinumZealot]

Vettel can even get 8 titles... but the writing is on the wall for him already. He can't recover. Everyone knows he is not the best on the grid thanks to Danny boy. But not to divert this thread into a driver Vs driver, we need to see Vettel fight one of the big three in the same car to see where he really stands.

[Manoah2u]

Vettel can even get 8 titles... but the writing is on the wall for him already. He can't recover. Everyone knows he is not the best on the grid thanks to Danny boy. But not to divert this thread into a driver Vs driver, we need to see Vettel fight one of the big three in the same car to see where he really stands.

the writing on the wall? Not the best on the grid thanks to danny boy?!

he just won in his 2nd race with ferrari and came 3rd twice, he's 1 point behind Rosberg in a car that's still a good range behind the Merc in raw potential.

[ScottB]

If Hamilton left Merc they'd take Bottas, through the Toto connection, or Alonso would fake his own death to get out of his Mclaren deal...

I don't see Lewis leaving though. Merc will be either the best, or one of the best cars until there is a major regs change at least, he's well placed to win the title this year and next, and if the post 2017 rules are still based around the current V6, as is likely, he'll most probably still be well placed.

I think it's more likely he leaves the sport than leaves Merc to be honest.

He doesn't need to fake his own death, Alonso has a performance clause in his contract that Mclaren have to be in a certain position in the WCC by a certain date. I wasn't told the position or the date but I doubt it is miles off other historic clauses such as 3rd in WCC by October 1st or something similar to that.

Didn't Ron come out today / yesterday and say it's a water tight 3 year deal with no clauses?

Of course, Ron could well have been making stuff up, again...

[SectorOne]

Vettel can even get 8 titles... but the writing is on the wall for him already. He can't recover. Everyone knows he is not the best on the grid thanks to Danny boy. But not to divert this thread into a driver Vs driver, we need to see Vettel fight one of the big three in the same car to see where he really stands.

the writing on the wall? Not the best on the grid thanks to danny boy?!

he just won in his 2nd race with ferrari and came 3rd twice, he's 1 point behind Rosberg in a car that's still a good range behind the Merc in raw potential.

I think in a way he´s got a point. You can have all the titles you like in F1 but ultimately what sets the value of your stock is how you fare against your teammates.

For example, if Hamilton would have been destroyed by Rosberg his stock would have dropped like a rock, there´s just no question about it.

So let´s say in Vettel´s case with Ricciardo having dismantled him, if Kimi comes out on top this year then his stock just won´t be as high as some other drivers.

If Massa had toyed with Alonso for four seasons straight we would not be considering him the best in the league either.
So what if he has 2 titles more then Massa? It just means he had the pleasure of driving one of the fastest cars in those years and that he beat whoever was in the second machine.

edit: to put up an example,

One of these guys through his career will share a car with the other guys at least once.
He beats them all in equal machinery. But he´s got zero titles while the rest has several.

That guy, despite not having a single title is quite obviously the best driver in F1, no question about it.
So your stock is ultimately determined by who you beat in the same machine.
With different machinery there´s different reasons. With equal machinery there´s only excuses.

[Just_a_fan]

Stirling Moss, for example, is often referred to as the best driver never to win the title. Here's a guy who was quick in everything he drove and was also sporting to the extreme. I doubt any modern F1 driver would give up the title by defending the actions of his title competitor.

Moss doesn't figure in any of the statistics for the great F1 champions because he never won the title. But he was a great racing driver by any method of measurement.

[PlatinumZealot]

Agreed.

Dont get me wrong i rate vettel it is no secret. In fact if he lost to ricciardo in points but still showed good speed and tenacity his stock would not get stained in my persoanl rating of him. But.. It so happened the vettel at times just did not have an answer on pace nor craft nor tancity last year. Daniel had him covered on all fronts. Even if daniel was the second coming i was hoping for vettel to at least beat him in one statistic. Hamilton lost to Button and deservedly so in 2011 but he still had the same raw pace and tenacity.. That fire in his eyes was still there. he was just a clumsy idiot that year.

For alonso in 2007 he should have beat Hamiton but for the situation i can understand why things unfolded the way they did. So i still rate alonso as the most complete.

[Phil]

Interesting discussion. All the while, the pressure is piling up on Kimi to deliever... Rumours are putting Bottas as the most likely driver to replace Kimi if it were to come to that, but I do wonder; why not Ricciardo? Of course, Vettel wouldn't like that for sure, and knowing Ferrari, they are probably more likely to put their eggs in one basket (Vettel) if it sees them as being competitive enough. Plus with Vettel, they have the "4 times world-champion". Kimi, even with his current performance, would be well suited for that task for being the reasonably competitive team-mate, the only problem is that they aren't winning and are still 2nd to Mercedes. If they were [winning], I think they'd be quite happy.

So perhaps Bottas seems like the reasonable choice. Quick and consistent, but if it was my team and I'd be looking at available drivers, I'd go for Dan - especially now that RedBull is really struggling and their relationship with Renault is decreasing with every new GP...

[ESPImperium]

Lets look at the contracts in place.

Mercedes AMG: HAM (End of 2018) / ROS (End of 2017)
Scuderia Ferrari: VET (End of 2017 - Two year option at end) / RAI (End of 2015 - Option for 2016 dependant on performance clauses)
Williams-Mercedes: MAS (End of 2016) / BOT (End of 2015 - Option for 2016)
Red Bull-Renault: RIC (End of 2016 - Rolling) / KVJ (End of 2016 - Rolling)
McLaren-Honda: ALO (End of 2017) / BUT (End of 2015)
Toro Rosso-Renault: SAI (End of 2016 - Rolling) / VES (End of 2016 - Rolling)
Lotus-Mercedes: GRO (End of 2016) / MAL (End of 2017 - Rolling)
Force India-Mercedes: HUL (End of 2015) / PER (End of 2016)
Sauber-Ferrari: NAS (End of 2015 - 2016 option) / ERI (End of 2015 - 2016 option)
Manor-Ferrari: STE (End of 2015) / MEH (Race by Race deal)

I predict very few changes for 2016; Palmer, Vandoorne, Lynn and possibly Roland or Rossi i think are suitable to come in. MAG could be a returnee with GUT.

Other than that; HUL, GRO, RAI and MEH are in the unsafe zone. If Ferrari ditch RAI, who could fill his seat for a single season, as BOT i think will have that 2017 contract there.

HUL and GRO seem to be grid locked at the moment, they may only have a season at a top team to make a impact if they switch. But the contracts positions are not favourable at the moment for them, same with PER. All drivers that need to show what they can do in a top car that performs, i still think PER should be given a shot in a top car that performs, not a poor Mclaren.

If RAI is the key to the driver market, it would be like this i think.

RAI replaced by BOT in 2017. Who would want to upset VET in 2016 with a stronger team mate, as the car will be designed around VET in 2016. More RAI radio in 2016.
BOT to have that option realised for 2016, Ferrari would have to pay about €12m to buy it out.
GRO, PER, HUL to stay where they are.
STE to stay at Manor
MEH to be replaced at certain races by VAN to gain him experience lower down the order, he would sit out the races where there was no GP2 race, unless he had the Title won by end of Monza, and that is possible.

That leaves the last two seats at HAAS-Ferrari. That will, i think be GUT and RSI, GUT a tested driver in F1, a known, someone to develop the car, something he is unknown for. RSI will be in there for the American audience, however i do have a feeling that RSI may be subbed at as many as 8 FP1s for a certain driver who is without a GoDaddy sponsorship in 2016.

However, the elephant in the room is where will Renault come in, will they buy Manor or Force India, even buy a 50% stake in Toro Rosso or will they start a fresh with a brand new entry from scratch? That may be a key element that has not been looked at, if so, it may release GRO back to Renault in some way. Thats my theory, as i think there could be 2 new teams in F1 next year at the tail end of the grid, one Haas, the other possible ByKolles as a front to the new Renault entry for 2017/8.