Sevach wrote:The whole, start the race with Q2 tires, makes even less sense now.
You could see a team like Mercedes going through to Q3 on harder tires and then taking pole on the softer one while everyone around them sits on the grid with the softer tires.
You've raised an interesting wrinkle to tire strategy for 2016.
Q2 serves essentially 2 purposes:
- Determine grid position. Either be faster than the 11th place qualifier to move up into the Q3 session, or the session directly determines the grid location.
- Determine the tires for the grid. If fast enough to move up to Q3, the set of tires on the car when it set its fastest Q2 lap will then be on the car on the grid. If 11th fastest or slower in Q2, then the car has full liberty to start with the unused Q3 tires (super soft at Melbourne), or either designated race set (unused softs or mediums at Melbourne), or any of the 4 remaining sets available.
For Mercedes, or another team, to try to make it into Q3 while using one of the harder compounds, would require a reliable estimate of the qualifying time of the 11th place Q2 car.
Looking back at 2015, we see the following:
- Australia qualifying - In Q2, the 11th & 12th place qualifiers both turned 88.8 second laps, while the two Mercedes team drivers did 86.9 and 87.0, each with a single run. That is a 1.8 seconds advantage and would enable 1 step harder compound.
- Abu Dhabi - In Q2 of the last race of 2015, the 11th & 12th qualifiers turned 102.5 & 102.7 sec laps respectively, while the Mercedes team ran 100.8 & 101.0 sec laps (again using a single run). so the gap was 1.5 seconds, which may be enough to gamble on a 1 step harder compound.
For Melbourne, we not likely to see such a gamble since it's the first competitive session of the season for the 2016 cars. I suppose there is much less solid data available to make such a gamble, compared to qualifying sessions later in the season.
But later in the season, if a team holds such a strong advantage in qualifying, and there is a significant enough strategic advantage to start on a harder compound, it could be devastating to their opposition.