2016 Canadian Grand Prix - Montreal, Fri 10 – Sun 12 Jun

[carisi2k]

I actually have a suspicion that the top three cars will be much closer in lap time than they have in a long time - albeit with the established Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull order still prevailing.

It's a short lap here, which tends to bring lap times closer together, and if the Ferrari PU/suspension updates work, this should allow them to get a lot more from their package. Similarly, I don't think a package as strong as the Red Bull's around Monaco will suddenly go back to running with the Williams, but there's also no way they've completely eradicated what was previously a significant power gap to the front.

I agree with this. They aren't going back to the mid pack but they won't have closed the gap entirely to Mercedes at a track like Canada. But they will be closer to the silver cars then they will to the white cars. Russia is a long track with lots of high speed bits and 60hp difference can easily make a 1.5 second gap. Canada is smaller and they will only have about 30hp missing vs anything with a Mercedes engine. The Red Bull chassis seems to really like this new engine and it would seem that in addition to the engine boost that Red Bull have been able to make some chassis gains to go along with the power boost.

[carisi2k]

The difference between 2015 and 2016 is that the 2016 Renault/Tag Heuer is not running at a 100hp deficit to anything with a Mercedes or Ferrari engine anymore and so even if a Williams or Force India somehow manage to get in front of a Red Bull. The RB12's superior slow speed performance, especially out of slow corners should see it able to use the DRS along the straights and then stay ahead.

Two races ago in Russia Red Bull's "best chassis" was 1,7 s behind Mercedes, explain that please and no, drivers didn't gain speed and talent in the meantime, it's called quicker car and less competition. Perhaps this popular chassis championship is a rather pointless exercise and others factors exist (tyres for example).

Come on you're ruining the red bull hype fest..Dont let facts get in the way.
Ferrari was 1 full second faster than red bull in sochi also so ,excuse my confusion when Renault announces an expected 5 tenths improvement for their engines and after some fuzzy math the internet says red bull has jumped Ferrari and will challenge Mercedes.. 1.00 - 0.50 = 0.50 right? And 1.70 - 0.50 =1.20 right?
Can someone please explain why the supposed 5 tenths is accepted as fact and how red bull erases the rest of the deficit they have to Ferrari and then Mercedes?
Thanks : )

It isn't just the engine upgrade. It is also the fact that the Red Bull chassis has advanced a lot this year as well. Russia exacerbated the gap because of the layout and china was smaller then it should have been because Lewis was out of Q3 and neither Ferrari or Rosberg improved on their final runs.

So from Australia with a 1.7 second gap to Spain with a 0.680 gap the improvement can be seen. If you add a couple of tenths to the chinese result due to the circumstances it will also show progression from the rb12.

With a new engine Ricciardo was on pole while in practice his new teammate was not able to get within 0.5 of a second of his best free practice time. I'm not saying that the Red Bull will be on pole in Canada but I would expect it to be well within 0.5 of a second of the fastest Mercedes.

[giantfan10]

Two races ago in Russia Red Bull's "best chassis" was 1,7 s behind Mercedes, explain that please and no, drivers didn't gain speed and talent in the meantime, it's called quicker car and less competition. Perhaps this popular chassis championship is a rather pointless exercise and others factors exist (tyres for example).

Come on you're ruining the red bull hype fest..Dont let facts get in the way.
Ferrari was 1 full second faster than red bull in sochi also so ,excuse my confusion when Renault announces an expected 5 tenths improvement for their engines and after some fuzzy math the internet says red bull has jumped Ferrari and will challenge Mercedes.. 1.00 - 0.50 = 0.50 right? And 1.70 - 0.50 =1.20 right?
Can someone please explain why the supposed 5 tenths is accepted as fact and how red bull erases the rest of the deficit they have to Ferrari and then Mercedes?
Thanks : )

It isn't just the engine upgrade. It is also the fact that the Red Bull chassis has advanced a lot this year as well. Russia exacerbated the gap because of the layout and china was smaller then it should have been because Lewis was out of Q3 and neither Ferrari or Rosberg improved on their final runs.

So from Australia with a 1.7 second gap to Spain with a 0.680 gap the improvement can be seen. If you add a couple of tenths to the chinese result due to the circumstances it will also show progression from the rb12.

With a new engine Ricciardo was on pole while in practice his new teammate was not able to get within 0.5 of a second of his best free practice time. I'm not saying that the Red Bull will be on pole in Canada but I would expect it to be well within 0.5 of a second of the fastest Mercedes.

Sochi was a 1.7 second gap also where is this improvement from Australia?
you are basically piecing together bits and pieces of info to make your arguement which is flawed IMHO.
the first mistake you make is trying to lump all tracks together like they are even similar
second nonsense arguement is that Ricciardo was on pole in QUALIFYING and his teammate wasnt within 5 tenths in PRACTICE. do i need to explain how silly it is making assumptions about these 2 sessions?
i know mercedes over the last couple years has trashed this fact about formula 1 but the reality is that certain teams are better than others at certain tracks...
red bull with their ability to produce more downforce than any other car on the grid will always be good at barcelona.. Monaco.. singapore hungary and the US GP...doesnt mean they will win but they are more competitive than at "normal" tracks....and the gap to mercedes and ferrari for that matter plays out exactly like that so far this year of course ferrari screwing up qualifying in china and barcelona helped make red bull look better than they actually are
my point of view is basically this there are ebbs and flows in every single formula 1 season... just because the last 2 tracks and circumstances flattered red bull does not mean that they areany closer to mercedes or ferrari in ultimate pace.

[Vasconia]

There are a lot of rumours about how some teams like RB are managing to "manipulate" tyres pressure in order to gain competitiveness, which could explain why they have improved so much. Meanwhile Ferrari is having more problems to do the same(what a surprise).

So, will we have rain during this race?

[Nuvolari]

Looking at the improvements made by the different teams from 2014 -> 2015, Ferrari improved more than any other team in qualifying. If we give Ferrari the same bigger leap of development, but keep a similar rate of development for Mercedes for this year, and throw in an overall delta of around -0.6s pace improvement for the ultra soft tyres over last year's super soft, here are my rough estimates for a dry qualifying:

Mercedes: 1:13.3 to 1:13.5
Ferrari: 1:13.5 to 1:13.7
Williams: 1:14.0 to 1:14.3
Red Bull: 1:14.0 to 1:14.3
Force India: 1:14.2 to 1:14.5
McLaren: 1:14.3 to 1:14.6
Torro Rosso: 1:14.5 to 1:14.8

Too lazy to work out for Renault, Sauber, Manor etc. I was being a bit generous to Red Bull and McLaren, as they actually got slower versus themselves from 2014 -> 2015, so I allowed them to close that gap, and have the same rate of improvement as Ferrari. Was being very generous to TR and also, this doesn't take in to account the recent trend of Ferrari dropping pace when Q3 comes.

I know I said a 1:13.6 for McLaren in the team thread, but that's using their average improvement across all tracks for this year. The above estimates are derived from Canada specific improvements from team to team.

It may be close between McLaren and Force India again for Q3 spots, but not knowing where Haas will figure, it may not be very close in the end.

As ever, I'll revisit after qualifying to see if I'm right!

[FrukostScones]

Canada will be wet. HAM, VET and VES will battle for the victory.

[djos]

Canada will be wet. HAM, VET and VES will battle for the victory.

And let's just ignore the driver that should have won the last two races shall we...

[FrukostScones]

Canada will be wet. HAM, VET and VES will battle for the victory.

And let's just ignore the driver that should have won the last two races shall we...

I think if he doesn't suck in Canada again, he is probably getting screwed, again.

[djos]

Canada will be wet. HAM, VET and VES will battle for the victory.

And let's just ignore the driver that should have won the last two races shall we...

I think if he doesn't suck in Canada again, he is probably getting screwed, again.

You have a very warped view point, he's won in Canada, besides sucking isn't something Ricciardo has ever done.

[FrukostScones]

And let's just ignore the driver that should have won the last two races shall we...

I think if he doesn't suck in Canada again, he is probably getting screwed, again.

You have a very warped view point, he's won in Canada, besides sucking isn't something Ricciardo has ever done.

sure?

8. Your first F1 win came in Canada in 2014 – what’s your next-best finish at that circuit?
Daniel’s answer: "That's hard. I've sucked in Canada except for 2014! Last year was s**t, '13 was s**t … 2012?"

http://www.redbull.com/au/en/motorsport ... le-moments

of course he is a contender... but if he sucks again, VES could win. cheers mate!
... and I would be totally fine with a RIC domination.

[iotar__]

Canada will be wet. HAM, VET and VES will battle for the victory.

And let's just ignore the driver that should have won the last two races shall we...

This driver doesn't exist so let's do that, Rosberg should have won in Spain. The one you're thinking about was making mistakes and was slower than Kvyat last year so I don't know about him.

Wet weekend should favour Red Bull though, it doesn't Hamilton (long list of examples if necessary) and Verstappen's abilities in those conditions are as proven as those at street circuits like Monaco.

[f1316]

I think to say ricciardo 'should' have won Spain is a stretch. Ferrari had much stronger race pace so they 'should' have beaten Red Bull. Mercedes had strongest pace of all do 'should' have not run into each other.

[turbof1]

I think to say ricciardo 'should' have won Spain is a stretch. Ferrari had much stronger race pace so they 'should' have beaten Red Bull. Mercedes had strongest pace of all do 'should' have not run into each other.

It's kind of vague. Mercedes 'should' have won no doubt, but Red Bull did outqualify Ferrari, which is very important in the race due track position. So it's perhaps a stretch that Ferrari 'should' have won it, but equally it's a stretch to say Ricciardo 'should' have won it. You can get out of that reasoning it would always have been very, very tight between Ferrari and Red Bull.

Canada might be a different ball park however. I'm hugely interested to see what the new Renault engine can do in anger.

[dans79]

You have a very warped view point, he's won in Canada, besides sucking isn't something Ricciardo has ever done.

Because the two cars that were miles in front of him broke down, let's not forget that!

[turbof1]

I think the point djos was wanting to make was that frukostscones elected Verstappen as a potential candidate for the win, but not Ricciardo. No disrespect meant versus Verstappen, but concerning what the driver can do Ricciardo has bested Verstappen at every stap in the 2 races they drove the same car. It would therefore not be logical to elect Verstappen but not Ricciardo.

Verstappen of course is still relative low on the learning curve and will make gains towards Ricciardo. So again no disrespect towards Verstappen. It will depend hugely on the car if the Red Bull drivers are up there. No driver can outpace his/her car.