Phil wrote: ↑08 Oct 2017, 12:02
f1316 wrote: ↑08 Oct 2017, 11:02
Absolutely ludicrous statements.
On pure pace, we can sure agree Vettel would have had around 60 additional points from the last three races (I personally estimate 2 wins and 1 second place - so 68 points) and therefore would have been right with if not ahead of Hamilton (who would have likely scored fewer points) .
Even assuming Vettel would have won and scored as you suggested does not mean that Hamilton wouldnt have scored any points at all - e.g. to balance out a 59 point advantage. They’d be closer yes, but Hamilton would still be leading.
Some of the assumptions being made about Singapore and Malaysia are crazy, apparently Vettel was going to win Singapore easily, despite Ferrari showing the worst pace in FP2 imo. Ignore bottas's awful times, Hamilton on softs had amazing times, he's also a demon in the rain and showed that in the race. Rain would make passing more possible I think and Hamilton getting wet or inters to run faster than others in changing conditions has repeatedly gained him multiple places.
I'm not convinced Vettel would even finish ahead of hamilton in Singapore given the conditions for the race. Likewise people seem to simply state as a fact that without reliability Vettel had pole in Malaysia completely wrapped up and RBR's pace apparently means nothing at all to anyone. Ferrari were simply apparently miles faster than everyone so would obviously have been two wins.
With Ferrari, since Monaco you have Kimi who when he can be bothered, beat Vettel in 4 out of 9 races before Malaysia in qualifying, in the other tracks he's hilariously off the pace. In Malaysia Kimi was fast, I have no reason to believe that Vettel would have out qualified him let alone get pole off Hamilton and I have no evidence that his pace was superior to verstappen in the race either. ALso just like Hamilton felt fighting hard with Verstappen wasn't worth the risk in that situation Vettel might feel the same OR Vettel might have made another mistake and tangled with Verstappen protecting his race.
The idea that Vettel has simply had 2 obvious wins taken away from him is to me, crazy. I also think from Kimi's pace that frankly Ferrari looked to be the third fastest race pace in Japan.
I think Vettel would obviously have been much closer, and Ferrari would be out of reach of RBR in the WCC... but for me Cota, Mexico are clear favourites for Mercedes, Hamilton is absolute king at Cota and Merc should be the best car there. Brazil maybe more of a toss up but I still think pro Merc and I don't think Merc will be bad at Abu Dhabi at all.
But also Ferrari had turbo issues much earlier in the year, from multiple months ago the chances for Vettel to have to start at least one race from the very back looked pretty certain to happen. So while Malaysia was certainly not great, for me one of the final 5 races was going to have that penalty and cause him to finish several places below Hamilton was a near certainty. Having it happen at a track they have good pace and that Hamilton didn't win is actually a pretty good outcome. Either way if he was taking a penalty and starting from the back at one race, then Malaysia isn't anywhere near as big a deal as people are making out, he MAY have gotten 25 points in Malaysia, maybe 18, but then maybe he takes a penalty in Cota, Hamilton wins there and being a less strong track for Ferrari he only gets back up to 6th place. Now he doesn't take a penalty at Cota and instead finishes say 2nd to Hamilton 1st. Kind of a wash points wise.
