2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, April 27-29

[JonoNic]

So the cars are a second slower than last year, strange, I figured they'd be faster. Hamilton is over a second slower than last year. Vettel improved by .4 seconds over his time last year, it's strange.

Hmm... Monza will be the same. They always do one stoppers there. Halo causing drag but no downforce.

[Vanja #66]

Well, teams did have a few more updates on their cars last year compared to now (where most cars are almost launch spec), but still, lap times seem too slow.

[f1316]

On a serious note, I have to say yhe Ferrari is mega! They have turned it around to be the most powerful and have the most down-force. Mercedes is still a great car. There are running less wing so still a chance to overtake in sector 1.

The way I see it, In the last 12 months of development (including the nasty halo interference), Ferrari has managed to improve by 2 tenths, RB has gone backwards by a tenths and Mercedes, has lost 1.1 seconds! So in essence, it's Mercedes moving backwards and Ferrari moving slightly ahead, the picture looks so contrastingly different.

You’re not comparing apples with apples: last year the race was held in June and they *still* struggled getting tyres up to temp; this year, in April, it’s even worse so natural they’d be slower.

All the cars are quicker - we’ve seen that in all the like-for-like comparison races we’ve had so far - so no, Mercedes could not go faster in the W08.

[godlameroso]

I'm not buying the one stopper as the fastest strategy, not at all. One safety car is all it takes to ruin that plan, I think it would make more sense to approach every race as a two stopper and adjusting instead of going for a default 1 stopper.

[Vasconia]

I think every team will wait for SC.
Specially for Vettel.

He has the dominant car but everything can happen in Baku.
Making it the most interesting race of the season

Not so dominant in the race so it will be tight, RB could be the surprise again if the SC appears

[Phil]

I think the race should be fascinating. IMO Mercedes might have the better set-up. They are running less wing, thus with the speed advantage and DRS, they might be able to overtake. Ferrari will have to be quick in the corners to pull out enough gap to not be vulnerable.

Merc seemed to struggle in Sector 2 so I'm not sure they'll be able to stay close enough to overtake. Assuming Vettel gets off the line I think he should be clear to run to the finish. Will be interesting to see if Hamilton can keep Bottas behind him.

I think the S2 gap is exaggerated due to two factors: Ferrari is running more wing and thus is better set-up for the twisty parts of the track (S2). The second factor is closely related to tire window. Assuming Mercedes again are slightly compromised on the softest tire compound - the Ultras - and fail to sufficiently get them into the 'perfect' working-range, the car would therefore have even less grip (than their potential on that car) in that particular sector. This may not entirely translate to the the SS tire where the Mercedes is arguably better - which is what they will be racing on tomorrow.

When both the Ferrari and the Mercedes are on SS, that gap might be smaller. And at this point, I am doubtful Mercedes will even run the US tomorrow in the race. And with the expected high winds, who knows, a low drag set-up might actually be beneficially on that long straight.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

On a serious note, I have to say yhe Ferrari is mega! They have turned it around to be the most powerful and have the most down-force. Mercedes is still a great car. There are running less wing so still a chance to overtake in sector 1.

The way I see it, In the last 12 months of development (including the nasty halo interference), Ferrari has managed to improve by 2 tenths, RB has gone backwards by a tenths and Mercedes, has lost 1.1 seconds! So in essence, it's Mercedes moving backwards and Ferrari moving slightly ahead, the picture looks so contrastingly different.

You’re not comparing apples with apples: last year the race was held in June and they *still* struggled getting tyres up to temp; this year, in April, it’s even worse so natural they’d be slower.

I guess you haven't read Toto's statement recently. Mercedes' problem is not getting tyres up to temp, it's about getting all four tyres in to the right temperature window, all at once. Fronts and Rears are not in sync. When fronts are, then rears aren't and where rears are, then front aren't. Sometimes it's lack of temperatures and sometimes overheat. So, it's not a straight forward, getting tyres up to temp situation. Last year, the car performed better in colder temperatures, but Baku had 50+, but the car still performed.

So they don't fully understand the Mechanical situation (in proper worlds, the vehicle dynamics) of the car. It's a great car with great aero, but the mechanical side is where the team has been struggling to get it together.

All the cars are quicker - we’ve seen that in all the like-for-like comparison races we’ve had so far - so no, Mercedes could not go faster in the W08.

I am confused with your statement. All the cars are quicker, but Mercedes could not go faster in W08?

2017
W08 did 1m40.593
SF70H did 1m41.693
RB13 did 1m41.897

2018
W09 did 1m41.677
SF71H did 1m41.498
RB14 did 1m41.911.

SF71H is obviously faster than SF70H, but W09 is slower by 1.1 seconds! Did you read that? I know it is not a practical scenario about W08 being on the track now. But fact is fact, despite spending 12 months of development effort (which costs in excess of $500 mn) the W09 is slower. When the nose regulations changed from 2014 to 2015, Mercedes claimed they struggled to get the downforce back, but W06 was still faster than W05, despite having a compromised aero philosophy! Lost in excess of a second by spending more, sound crazy.

[sosic2121]

The cars are a second slower than last year. Mercedes should go back, bring W08 and bolt halo, should still be able to get pole.

I'm sure it would.
That was one well oiled machine!

[Wynters]

Eww! Vettel has something nasty on his lower lip!

It looks like a cold sore. You've never had one ?

I think the race should be fascinating. IMO Mercedes might have the better set-up. They are running less wing, thus with the speed advantage and DRS, they might be able to overtake. Ferrari will have to be quick in the corners to pull out enough gap to not be vulnerable.

Merc seemed to struggle in Sector 2 so I'm not sure they'll be able to stay close enough to overtake. Assuming Vettel gets off the line I think he should be clear to run to the finish. Will be interesting to see if Hamilton can keep Bottas behind him.

I'd like to disagree. Assuming they can at least keep their places at the start, Merc can bully Vettel with alternate pit strategies.

You could well be right (Phil and Vasconia make good points too).

It looks to be nicely setup for tomorrow. I hope there isn't a safety car as that would mean the final result was down to luck (who was where and on what rubber when it came out) which would be disappointing. I'm really looking forward to seeing what Kimi can do with the Red Bulls too. If ever he had a chance for a good, combatitive performance it will be tomorrow. Should be a great race!

[iotar__]

- Red Bull dominating in headlines but in reality of Q they are -0,4 s behind. More like -0,5 with Ferrari bad laps. What else is new?
- horrible Merc is -0,2s behind, maybe more (see above). I thought their engine advantage was so huge they could slap DF on the car when needed . Are they still "toying with the rest" (F1 expert Marko)?
- Is Raikkonen messing up on purpose? It's funny either way.

[ripper]

Kimi had pole in his hands but sadly he lacks to deliver when it counts. Will he be able to change the SS tyre for safety reason? I remember HAM did the same some years ago (can't remember when).

If he's able to change them I would do an aggressive US-SS-US race, hoping for some SC to regain time lost with one more stop.

Anyway I'm impressed by Ferrari single lap speed!

[NAPI10]

What is the tire availability for each driver (for race)?

[JonoNic]

Vettel's pole lap

[Phil]

Kimi had pole in his hands but sadly he lacks to deliver when it counts. Will he be able to change the SS tyre for safety reason? I remember HAM did the same some years ago (can't remember when).

If he's able to change them I would do an aggressive US-SS-US race, hoping for some SC to regain time lost with one more stop.

He won't need to, because he did his best run on the US tire in Q2. So Kimi will be starting on the US tire (vs. everyone else from the top 6 who will start on the SS).

I predict a straight forward SS-S strategy for most. Kimi might be a dark horse given he is starting on the US, but his strategy options will be limited due to his damaged SS tire. Personally, I think we can speculate all we want about which car is best, fastest etc, but IMO, there's too high a chance that the race will be influenced by a safety car. Usually, a safety car benefits the risk takers - those that are gambling, rather than those that are already at the front and playing it safe (to protect their position).

If it's a straight forward race, no safety-car, I think the victory could go to Mercedes as Ferrari may be vulnerable with a single car up front. Either way, the victory either Vettel or a Mercedes. If it's a chaotic race, I think RedBull could win this race. RedBull are always ready to gamble and take risks and they are aggressive enough to try something creative (like stopping early and late with their cars).

[Harvester]

The way I see it, In the last 12 months of development (including the nasty halo interference), Ferrari has managed to improve by 2 tenths, RB has gone backwards by a tenths and Mercedes, has lost 1.1 seconds! So in essence, it's Mercedes moving backwards and Ferrari moving slightly ahead, the picture looks so contrastingly different.

You’re not comparing apples with apples: last year the race was held in June and they *still* struggled getting tyres up to temp; this year, in April, it’s even worse so natural they’d be slower.

I guess you haven't read Toto's statement recently. Mercedes' problem is not getting tyres up to temp, it's about getting all four tyres in to the right temperature window, all at once. Fronts and Rears are not in sync. When fronts are, then rears aren't and where rears are, then front aren't. Sometimes it's lack of temperatures and sometimes overheat. So, it's not a straight forward, getting tyres up to temp situation. Last year, the car performed better in colder temperatures, but Baku had 50+, but the car still performed.

So they don't fully understand the Mechanical situation (in proper worlds, the vehicle dynamics) of the car. It's a great car with great aero, but the mechanical side is where the team has been struggling to get it together.

All the cars are quicker - we’ve seen that in all the like-for-like comparison races we’ve had so far - so no, Mercedes could not go faster in the W08.

I am confused with your statement. All the cars are quicker, but Mercedes could not go faster in W08?

2017
W08 did 1m40.593
SF70H did 1m41.693
RB13 did 1m41.897

2018
W09 did 1m41.677
SF71H did 1m41.498
RB14 did 1m41.911.

SF71H is obviously faster than SF70H, but W09 is slower by 1.1 seconds! Did you read that? I know it is not a practical scenario about W08 being on the track now. But fact is fact, despite spending 12 months of development effort (which costs in excess of $500 mn) the W09 is slower. When the nose regulations changed from 2014 to 2015, Mercedes claimed they struggled to get the downforce back, but W06 was still faster than W05, despite having a compromised aero philosophy! Lost in excess of a second by spending more, sound crazy.

With Halo, this year's oil limit and race at this time of year there is no doubt W08 would be slower than W09. Ferrari was just 0.2 quicker than last year and we all see how much their car is better than last year's especially in qiualifying.