2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, April 27-29

[basti313]

I'm not buying the one stopper as the fastest strategy, not at all. One safety car is all it takes to ruin that plan, I think it would make more sense to approach every race as a two stopper and adjusting instead of going for a default 1 stopper.

This is literally why I think Kimi will win.

He's the highest placed 2 stopper, with 5 cars ahead with harder tyres that already have more laps on them. I expect him to be in first place by lap 4, then the stretch-dash while praying for a safety car that will come eventually. US->S->US to allow the late change to 1 stop if more safety cars come after, or chase down people that are on old tyres with his fresh US and light fuel after the track rubbers in even more.

Dark horse winner.

I am surprised by the strange strategy expectations.
Just like in China, there will be little to no difference between the US and SS pace in the first stint. The fastest strategy without a SC is to run the SS as long as possible and switch to US in the end. This is an easy strategy as the teams learn about the US deg from the ones starting on it. The ones who start on US will need to stretch this stint to go for SS later. Without the SC we will barely see S runners at the front, but mainly in the midfield teams and Kimi.

With a SC nothing can be really predicted. Most probably an early SC will mean some US starters may switch to the S and try to go to the end. A bit later everyone will use the S to go to the end. A middle race SC might be most interesting, as the SS starters can not bold on the US, but the US runners using the S may be able to switch to the SS.

In all these scenarios I can not see Kimi as being gifted, as he has no good SS set anymore. With the S he will simply be not fast enough to stay at the front to profit from a late SC. The difference to the SS starters will be too low.

[Phil]

I hope I won't regret asking this, but how can you still say that with Renault actually saving a set of SS instead of US for P3/Q/R and then used them in P3 instead of saving them for the race? Every team ended up having 4 sets of US for Q/R, 1 SS and 1 S. Every team.

Hum, everyone outside the top 6 has got at least 1 new (unused) set of both SS and S, which is considered to be the better ‘race tire’.

Obviously, the teams outside the top 6 have other considerations to make - most of them cant afford to run the ‘better race tire’ for Q2, because they need every bit of performance from the quickest tire to get into Q3.

The Mercedes clearly favors the SS/S tire, so clearly they’d be at an advantage if they had an extra unused set for any eventuality.

This especially holds true for Ferrari/Kimi who went into Q2 never having driven the SS. Karun explained it quite nicely in the CH4 broadcast. Why are you still arguing this point?

[Zynerji]

He's on younger, and softer tyres than everyone in front of him. Not unreasonable to believe he can get 2 at the start, then 3 more in 3 laps.

[Zynerji]

In all these scenarios I can not see Kimi as being gifted, as he has no good SS set anymore. With the S he will simply be not fast enough to stay at the front to profit from a late SC. The difference to the SS starters will be too low.

I think you may have missed the fact that Kimi was legitimately the fastest car on track today, and a late race tyre mismatch (New US against 20 lap old S) puts him in the better spot, even aggressive 2 stopping against the conservative 1 stoppers.

Stop on lap 12 to goto new S, and under cut the SS runners, stop on 41 if not more safety cars, dash to the end on new US

[F1NAC]

I was just amazed how that Ferrari rode those kerbs at castle section

[Zynerji]

I was just amazed how that Ferrari rode those kerbs at castle section

Haas looked Fab there as well. Ferrari suspension advantage?

[Phil]

He's on younger, and softer tyres than everyone in front of him. Not unreasonable to believe he can get 2 at the start, then 3 more in 3 laps.

With that big fat rear wing? Sorry, can’t see it. Dirty air and all, he’ll be lucky to get past the Bulls.

[atanatizante]

1.Don`t you think guys that Merc is holding back something? Until now they`ve got barely any updates to their car. Maybe they`ll have the big bits for Barca race and don`t what other teams to see what they are doing? Or maybe they think it`s wiser to learn 2018 tyres with the same platform and then address the car with the proper updates?

2.Seems that it`s the same scenario like in previous years: Merc car likes harder tyres coz harder the tyre is wider the operation window it has. This means their car has a narrow sweet spot and even narrower than W08! And regarding this, some said it`s down to their raised suspension pickup points having thus even tighter limits for setting them up than last year …

3.Other said they are playing very safe on PU modes, bearing in mind they have 7 races to endure this season. Just here in the 4th race, they have a small update but a software one – as Force India director Otmar said on Sky. For me, it means they are not so conservative like the first 3 races and it should be translated to 0.05 or 0.1s/lap gain in the race.

4.Is it me or it seems that this year we have the reversed 2017 situation: Ferrari is better in qualy and Merc into the race?

5.There`s a one-stop race. So, for Ferrari and Red Bull could be SS-US strategy but for Merc could be SS-S easily. Therefore, I see Lewis stopping earlier than Seb, but not for the first reason – the undercut – but for having more time on S tyre, which could be the right tyre to choose tomorrow knowing will have lower track temp than today … and for that reason it could be a nightmare for those who will run the US tyre in the second stint …

6. Lewis said in press conference that they changed almost everything on the car even the ride height … indeed they seemed to have no sparks on the long straight … that means they raised the car hence gained some downforce for the second sector their weakest point this weekend coz their top speed didn`t change much … seems that they are looking for higher ride setups or it was a track related situation?

5.Regarding the rear wing setup, it`s clear that Merc went for a car with more top speed for overtaking. As the picture below shows us, Lewis did 318km/h with DRS and Seb just 309 … Remember, those speeds are in the speed trap and all cars surpassed that value until they brake for the first turn (max.speed is in SPD3 column) ... So, without DRS Seb could be at 289-294km/h hence delta is 29-34km/h … but as I mentioned before, last year 30km/h difference in speed wasn`t enough to pass here and maybe Lewis need a tow like we saw in FP1 on Ricci`s car when he reached 349km/h and without it (and just DRS) he barely managed 312km/h… I mean 37km/h delta between a tow and a non-one is really crazy! (maybe he was on a double tow then …) …

[Rodak]

......... or chase down people that are on old tyres with his fresh US and light fuel after the track rubbers in even more.

Everyone's on a light fuel load. There's no refueling.

Edited to add: But yeah, after some thought I see your point, ultra soft tires and low fuel. Sorry.

[atanatizante]

Is that SS tyre flat spotted on Lewis car he used in Q2?
Could they change it for safety grounds as we saw in the past?

And everybody said that Merc and RB are slower than last year but they didn`t put into account the new tarmac, new tyres, cooler conditions than last year and last but not least a heavier car ...

[Big Tea]

Is that SS tyre flat spotted on Lewis car he used in Q2?
Could they change it for safety grounds as we saw in the past?

And everybody said that Merc and RB are slower than last year but they didn`t put into account the new tarmac, new tyres, cooler conditions than last year and last but not least a heavier car ...

We should see some effects of this in the race too. Heaver car needs more fuel for race distance so no under filling and probably more saving.

As for tyres, I suspect they will all have a plan in place to to switch to the harder tyres for longer stints should there be a safety car early on. We could possibly see all 3 types used.

[Phil]

Is that SS tyre flat spotted on Lewis car he used in Q2?
Could they change it for safety grounds as we saw in the past?

No. He even had another run on them and did a very good time. All will be fine.

[Zynerji]

Is that SS tyre flat spotted on Lewis car he used in Q2?
Could they change it for safety grounds as we saw in the past?

No. He even had another run on them and did a very good time. All will be fine.

All the Q2 SS qualifiers put several laps on their starting set. That's why i think Raikkonen can get a mega jump, and pressure others to let him pass while trying to preserve their tyres to 1 stop.

[fiohaa]

why slower than last year, is it just due to lower circuit temp?

[Vasconia]

why slower than last year, is it just due to lower circuit temp?

Yes, the grip is clearly worse so the lap times are slower. Track temperature is colder.