Wynters wrote: ↑30 Apr 2018, 12:30
Thought Hamilton had another poor race, seems he lost all his energy since Australia. I think his engineer is getting a bit tired of it too.
Hamilton's race performance is exaggerated to an extent, because he was in a position to challenge Vettel (behind by 2.5 to 4s up to the point he made a mistake and then later ruined his tires). At that point, there were no indications on how the soft tires would be. The only indications were that Kimi was struggling, but the thinking behind Mercedes strategy was probably that their car would behave better on them. Up until that point, Hamilton was at least driving closely to Vettels pace, Bottas falling back (around 6s behind Hamilton, a full 10 behind the leader Vettel). Then Hamilton ruined his (perhaps by pushing too hard) and that cascaded into his strategy unfolding into going on that one-stop for softs. Turned out, the fresh unused soft was not faster than the old SS everyone else was still running on, which pretty much destroyed Hamilton's race at that point, because the strategy was done and he was committed to it.
With this knowledge, Mercedes of course left Bottas out - there was no point in pitting him and putting him on a fresher tire that was effectively slower. This allowed the ulterior strategy of going long (as long as possible) on the SS and then go for a short US stint and betting on a safety car situation.
Ferrari at some point decided to pit as well at the point when Hamilton's lap time started to match Vettels on the old SS. They probably felt that staying out longer might not yield much advantage. Obviously, they were wrong and Vettel being 12 seconds behind Bottas (who hadn't stopped yet) gave Mercedes the ace on strategy in case of a safety car.
So, to some extent, one could say that Hamiltons early pitting cascaded into the strategy of Vettel and enabled Bottas to benefit in the first place. If all 3 had stayed out, then they each would have nullified any advantage and came in at the same time when a safety car hit.
Wynters wrote: ↑30 Apr 2018, 12:30
Particularly interesting that he could make no impression on Vettel after the final restart. He had a double-tow and yet pulled out early and didn't even reach Vettel, let alone draw level or overtake. Not sure why Vettel took such a risk trying to overtake Bottas either.
Vettel had a tow from Bottas. Hamilton was faster than Vettel thanks to the tow and less drag, but as soon as he moved out of Vettels tow to overtake, he rapidly lost acceleration relative to Vettel who was still in Bottas tow. Arguably, Hamilton was too close to Vettel and that in turn meant he had to move out of the tow earlier. Vettel was farther behind Bottas, thus could stay in longer and used that for a risky maneuver into T1.