2018 Austrian Grand Prix, Spielberg, 29 June - 1 July

[Phil]

I think Mercedes is running spec2, but that is just a hunch. As GPR said, i think some of the aero updates are linked to the engine too.

Anyway, i think Mercedes is strong and will be stronger than Ferrari. They’ll be ahead in QF and the race. I think Bottas will be strong, but might be edged in qualifying. If he can nail it though, i think he could win this weekend. It will be crucial who nails it on the US as that seems to be the tire that they struggle most to get into the tenperature range. It will be warmer tomorrow though. Hamilton does look on form though.

[dans79]

Hamilton does look on form though.

He finally seems to have his Mojo back, I have to assume that's because his contract is finally taken care of.

[Vasconia]

Autosport says that Mercedes is clearly ahead but my impression was that Ferrari is closer than in France.

[Zynerji]

I dont think anyone shows their full hand in P1/P2, and rarely in P3.

A click or 2 on engine mode, or holding an extra 10L of fuel can easily cover the spread.

Q3 would be epic tomorrow, and I'm stoked for a real shootout!

[f1316]

Ferrari are definitely closer to the pace than they were on the Friday sessions of France, Canada or Spain - make of that what you will as it relates to the rest of the weekend.

I haven’t looked into the long run pace, but funny how different people interpret them differently.

James Allen says: “Mercedes’ advantage appeared to extend into the high-fuel runs, too.
With both Hamilton and Bottas being able to trouble the low-1:07s and the high-1:08s on both the soft and supersoft tyres, Vettel looked to be the only driver competing with those times, with Raikkonen and the Red Bulls further back in the mid-1:08 lap times.“

But Sky Sports say: “But Ferrari, who have failed to show their hand on a Friday all season, showed far greater promise on the high-fuel runs with Vettel delivering the best lap-time average on the ultrasofts and Kimi Raikkonen on the supersofts.”

[dans79]

But Sky Sports say: “But Ferrari, who have failed to show their hand on a Friday all season, showed far greater promise on the high-fuel runs with Vettel delivering the best lap-time average on the ultrasofts and Kimi Raikkonen on the supersofts.”

I think the important bit is the "the best lap-time average" part. Sky are one of the last organizations I would trust to get something technical correct.

[saviour stivala]

But Sky Sports say: “But Ferrari, who have failed to show their hand on a Friday all season, showed far greater promise on the high-fuel runs with Vettel delivering the best lap-time average on the ultrasofts and Kimi Raikkonen on the supersofts.”

I think the important bit is the "the best lap-time average" part. Sky are one of the last organizations I would trust to get something technical correct.

Ultrasoft long run averages.
number 77 = 1:08.7s = 8 laps.
number 5 = 1:08.7s = 18 laps.
number 44 = 1:09.0s = 4 laps.

[LM10]

I don't know what all the rave is about vettels long run, Bottas did a 1min 8.2 and 1min 8.0 around 10 laps into his ultra soft stint which was 4 tenths faster than anything vettel managed and towards the end of vettel stint it did look like his lap times dropped off. I think Ferrari should be worried.

Vettel started his long run on Ultras which already were 12 laps old. Did you consider that?

Yes Bottas had done 10 laps already on his before the run so what's your point?

Stint of Vettel on US:

1 1:08.834
2 1:08.391
3 1:08.541
4 1:08.393
5 1:08.496
6 1:08.586
7 1:08.490
8 1:08.831
9 1:08.880
10 1:08.570
11 1:08.664
12 1:08.813
13 1:08.835
14 1:08.699
15 1:09.042
16 1:11.836
17 1:09.654
18 1:09.821
19 1:10.747


Stint of Bottas on US:

1 1:08.602
2 1:08.413
3 1:08.491
4 1:17.171
5 1:11.347
6 1:08.493
7 1:08.518
8 1:14.047
9 1:09.979
10 1:16.155
11 1:08.021
12 1:08.218


Look at the inconstancy of Bottas' run. With such slow times like in laps 4, 5, 8 and 10 the stress on the tyres is reduced much, so a time like at lap 11 when you push more isn't quite a big deal anymore in my opinion.

At the end it's just practice, but by just looking at the times I don't see a reason why Ferrari should be worried like you told.

[dans79]

Ultrasoft long run averages.
number 77 = 1:08.7s = 8 laps.
number 5 = 1:08.7s = 18 laps.
number 44 = 1:09.0s = 4 laps.

Just adding all the lap times together and calculating an average is what dumb members of the press do.....

If you want to do a proper analysis, step one is to weed out the outliers. In the case of Vettel, lap 34 is a perfect example that doesn't even require statistical analysis. it's over 2 seconds slower then the lap before it and the lap after it.

Lewis numbers look like cherry picked garbage, as none of his stints where 4 laps in length. Not to mention that a 4 lap stint is for all intensive purposes statically irreverent.

Bottas's numbers are the same, no stint was 8 laps long, and all his stints had huge fluctuations in lap times.

Either you have some pretty extreme bias, or you have no idea what you are doing/talking about!

[zibby43]

Look at the inconstancy of Bottas' run.

Traffic. Short track. Short lap.

[LM10]

Look at the inconstancy of Bottas' run.

Traffic. Short track. Short lap.

Of course, I'm not telling that it was due to lack of pace. You misunderstood.

[zibby43]

Look at the inconstancy of Bottas' run.

Traffic. Short track. Short lap.

Of course, I'm not telling that it was due to lack of pace. You misunderstood.

Wasn't trying to imply that you were. I understood. I was merely expounding upon the inconsistency and the trouble with trying to delve too deeply into some of the long run data.

[radosav]

So Charlie Whitting said that teams should make wings stiffer.
Is this seroius answer to very seroius question?
Lots of teams suffered due to yellow kerbs,for some of drivers one corner off track could mean end of race. While during French GP you could go where ever you want off track, without any damage.

[browney]

So Charlie Whitting said that teams should make wings stiffer.
Is this seroius answer to very seroius question?
Lots of teams suffered due to yellow kerbs,for some of drivers one corner off track could mean end of race. While during French GP you could go where ever you want off track, without any damage.

I wasn't sure if you are for or against the curbs?

I think it is good that there are curbs like that to make sure the best drivers in the world actually stay on the track. I have no problem with running off the track (Ie. Making a sporting mistake) ruining a driver's race, just like it does at a street circuit. If it is safe enough, I'd like all circuits to have curbs like that.

I also think that circuits like Paul Ricard, conversely make the sport worse because it reduces the challenge of driving the track.

It goes without saying that the circuits need to be safe (this is the highest priority) but there should be a sporting consequence for going off the track.

It is also another challenge for the stress engineers to design for that load case. After all, we push aero engineers for the best concepts.

[radosav]

So Charlie Whitting said that teams should make wings stiffer.
Is this seroius answer to very seroius question?
Lots of teams suffered due to yellow kerbs,for some of drivers one corner off track could mean end of race. While during French GP you could go where ever you want off track, without any damage.

I wasn't sure if you are for or against the curbs?

I think it is good that there are curbs like that to make sure the best drivers in the world actually stay on the track. I have no problem with running off the track (Ie. Making a sporting mistake) ruining a driver's race, just like it does at a street circuit. If it is safe enough, I'd like all circuits to have curbs like that.

I also think that circuits like Paul Ricard, conversely make the sport worse because it reduces the challenge of driving the track.

It goes without saying that the circuits need to be safe (this is the highest priority) but there should be a sporting consequence for going off the track.

It is also another challenge for the stress engineers to design for that load case. After all, we push aero engineers for the best concepts.

I am against so large kerbs. If driver goes off track he should only lose time , like on most tracks, not parts of car like here.