godlameroso wrote: ↑30 Jul 2019, 18:43
Pyrone89 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2019, 18:33
godlameroso wrote: ↑30 Jul 2019, 17:57
If we look at it on paper it's a 62 point deficit. If Max wins and Hamilton comes 2nd that's 7 points gained, 8 if Verstappen gets fastest lap. There are 10 rounds to go. If Verstappen wins 8 in a row + fastest lap and Hamilton comes 2nd 8 times in a row Verstappen will take the lead with 2 races to go. If Verstappen only takes victory and no fastest laps it will take 9 victories in a row to take the lead. If we have another 26 point haul over Hamilton at any time during the season, and the Red Bull package takes that next step to fight on equal footing it's game on. As Hamilton's advantage would only be 36 points, something Max can overcome given equally fast cars and a full third of the season to go.
If he pulled it off it would be one of the greatest comebacks in racing since Raikkonen took the title in 2007.
Comeback is an understatement.
Look if it is up to Verstappen vs Hamilton in equally good machinery and equally good team operations, based on the last 1,5 years of driving Verstappen would be able to beat Hamilton more than Hamilton beats him. But the fact is they dont have equal machinery (Honda still 3rd best engine, RB 2nd best chassis,
Mercedes is best in both categories in racetrim, in qualitrim Ferrari has the better engine), Verstappen has to take an engine penalty thus is going to lose points in at least 1 race (bigger deficit plus less races to work away that deficit) and there are tracks that massively favor engine power where neither Merc or RB may take the maximum points due to a Ferrari win (Monza, Spa, Abu Dhabi, Sochi). Basically if you would have to make quote for this as a booky it would make someone a millionaire just by placing 100 euro on it.
You keep saying this but now we have 2/3 races which directly contradict your statements. Mercedes was ok in the wet, but they could not pull away from Verstappen, and in the dry Verstappen had better pace than either Mercedes drivers, and mind you both of their cars were not damaged at that point. So you can't use that excuse or that Hamilton was being held up, like you can in Verstappen's favor in Silverstone.
I think in race pace the Red Bull is every bit the match of the Mercedes, maybe slightly faster or slower depending on circuit. You don't qualify within .2 seconds around a 5.9km circuit if your car isn't on the pace.
You have a point that they were close these last 2/3 races, but the Friday in Hockenheim (in hot weather nonetheless) showed a big advantage for Merc. Also those 2/3 races where when RBR had their big upgrade and Merc not yet. Now Merc have their big upgrade and we will have to wait for a complete dry race with no damage (Austria: cooling issues and broken front wing, Germany: Hamilton had more damage than just his nose, visually one of the flow conditioners was gone , Merc pit stop disaster) and them to dial in the adjusted setup to judge the new running order.
Dont forget that until Austria the season looked to be an absolute whitewash for Mercedes with them absolutely trashing everyone. Also in Silverstone they were again comfortably ahead and Max would only have gotten ahead of Bottas (if not for Vettel) because Merc messed up the tyre strategy and the pack could bunch up under SC. From all that I could see we have 2 special races where Merc didnt get their usual pace due to damage and weather (extremely hot Austria, changing conditions Germany) and in all the other races they won by either a big margin or a small margin but only because of a team operations error not a pace problem (such as Monaco giving HAM wrong tyres).
I would be happy to share your optimism, but until we see a normal race with normal weather and no damage or blunders from Merc or their drivers where the RB outpaces or matches the Merc we can not start to think about regularly beating them on merit, let alone the championship.
True GOATs don’t need the help of superior material to win.
Tom Brady, Usain Bolt are true GOATs.