Capharol wrote: ↑01 Nov 2019, 23:48
Long Runs
1. RB (0.1 faster on the S compared to Hamilton and 0.5s faster as Leclerc, Mediums i couldn't really figure out but that should be close)
2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
this gonna be a very interesting race
Something piques my interest. Yes overall pace RB seems to be the fastest in Verstappen's hands by about .1, however, it seems the Mercedes can set banker laps, if you notice that both Bottas and Hamilton threw in a 38. While the rest of their laps had very similar pace to Verstappen it's those odd laps that leads me to wonder if Mercedes still have something up their sleeve.
Sector 2 has some corners that are long and winding, I think Mercedes has more peak downforce and is faster in these types of corners. The Red Bull generates more downforce at low speeds than Mercedes but has less peak downforce, so it's better in the very slow pointy corners, and medium speed corners with a short apex. Otherwise the relative lack of rear end downforce creates a slight problem with instability and front end oversteer which Verstappen seems to have a better time dealing with than anyone else. A case of self confidence overcoming any confidence issue in the car?
What Mercedes have with peak downforce is better tire management vs everyone else. I think that combined with their power unit allow them to get those banker laps in the race. They can use those to manage gaps, avoid undercuts, and their downforce advantage allows them to follow in the race better than other cars.
The Honda engine is at a point that it can allow the 2nd best chassis on the grid to beat the best chassis on the grid when the chassis handicaps aren't exaggerated by the track, and weather conditions. Probably also due to having the best driver on the grid. However Mercedes still has these banker laps that Red Bull can't match, so they need a definite pace advantage over a stint to really take the fight.
It doesn't hurt that the Mercedes outfit almost never makes mistakes, if Germany showed us anything is that the harder you try, the worse off you are. Mercedes tried too hard to win that one and it backfired, the pressure broke them. Other than that, Mercedes has had a comfortable lead, which means they haven't really been under pressure. Ferrari's brief resurgence showed that Mercedes can make mistakes if it's put under pressure, so hopefully it's close enough for Verstappen to accomplish something.
I know he'll be eager to bounce back from the last few frustrating races. When it's so close it's easy to get overanxious and try to overdeliver, but that just seems to work against you. The mind needs to be clear and calm, focused on the task at hand, once you enter a rhythm the results will come. There's no need to even have trust, everyone that's entered that flow state knows it's real.
