Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[djos]

"What about all the fossil fuel subsidies? As I'm sure you know, we give the coal and gas industry huge subsidies here in Aus and most don't even pay much tax or even their full royalties."

Whatever you are on about, I was talking about the fact that 57% of EV sales are in China, and China gets (and will continue to get) the vast majority of its electrical power from coal.

My response was to the first half of your quote:

We'll see how much 'going mad' there is as the subsidies drop away.

My point was EV's are not the only subsidized sector.

[Andres125sx]

Anycase I think this is a debate to discuss in some decades,

I have questions about in some decades. Like how are y'all and the U.N. gonna handle it in a couple of decades when the predictions of disaster don't come true. As soon as N.Y. subways are flooded or Seattle actually needs a bigger sea wall or Hawaii disappears under the waves, I will be first in line to say I was wrong. How about y'all? I think sooner or later the IPCC will have to come clean about costing the world trillions of dollars and upsetting the worlds apple cart.

Do you really think it´s only the IPCC who warns about CC Strad? Really? What about ONU? What about the vast majority of scientists from any field? What about NASA Strad? Any reason you ignore NASA even when they´re funded by Trump´s government who is as negacionist as yourself? Any or you just run out of excuses?

Anytime this discussion starts again and I mention NASA as an example about how absurd is your conspiracy theory, you always, systematically, stop arguing. Then some days after you start again repeating the same as if the discussion would have never occured, and obviously ignoring NASA again (and ONU, UN, etc.) and acting again as if it was only the politicians of IPCC who warns about CC

In Spain there´s a saying, there´s no one more blind than those who refuse to see

[Just_a_fan]

In Spain there´s a saying, there´s no one more blind than those who refuse to see

The same is said in Britain too. Probably a revision of a passage in tbe Bible, but has been traced back to the mid 1500s in the English language, apparently.

[henry]

Whatever you are on about, I was talking about the fact that 57% of EV sales are in China, and China gets (and will continue to get) the vast majority of its electrical power from coal.

Two thirds of China’s electricity comes from coal. Most of the rest from Hydro.

Using the figures from my Tesla-Golf comparison earlier the CO2/mile figures in China come out as 240-240. If I add in your 17% well to tank figure that’s 240-280.

There are lots of questions of course. What vehicles might the China consumer have bought rather than electric? Where do they lie in relation to the Golf? I’ll assume the Tesla stands for all electric cars since power consumption is much less variable. The list is long.

[nzjrs]

Does anyone have any comparative numbers, electric motorcycles/scooters (the large sitting kind) to combustion ones? Its a bit of a wild west wrt. regulation, but I read impressive growth numbers out of China/India/SE Asia.

Is it still in absolute volume of use and emissions, to low numbers to be consequential, or behaviorally a supplemental mode of transport that doesn't remove a car from the road?

[AJI]

Does anyone have any comparative numbers, electric motorcycles/scooters (the large sitting kind) to combustion ones? Its a bit of a wild west wrt. regulation, but I read impressive growth numbers out of China/India/SE Asia.

Is it still in absolute volume of use and emissions, to low numbers to be consequential, or behaviorally a supplemental mode of transport that doesn't remove a car from the road?

Entire cities in China have been almost 100% electric for the scooters you describe for years now. It's odd to hear a petrol powered one when you're in a major city. They're predominantly lead acid too, so the recyling program is very efficient.
China has quietly led the electric revolution for over a decade. They don't make much fuss about it though, so the first world barely knows about it...

[nzjrs]

Does anyone have any comparative numbers, electric motorcycles/scooters (the large sitting kind) to combustion ones? Its a bit of a wild west wrt. regulation, but I read impressive growth numbers out of China/India/SE Asia.

Is it still in absolute volume of use and emissions, to low numbers to be consequential, or behaviorally a supplemental mode of transport that doesn't remove a car from the road?

Entire cities in China have been almost 100% electric for the scooters you describe for years now. It's odd to hear a petrol powered one when you're in a major city. They're predominantly lead acid too, so the recyling program is very efficient.
China has quietly led the electric revolution for over a decade. They don't make much fuss about it though, so the first world barely knows about it...

Do you believe they take a car of the road or are supplemental?

[AJI]

Does anyone have any comparative numbers, electric motorcycles/scooters (the large sitting kind) to combustion ones? Its a bit of a wild west wrt. regulation, but I read impressive growth numbers out of China/India/SE Asia.

Is it still in absolute volume of use and emissions, to low numbers to be consequential, or behaviorally a supplemental mode of transport that doesn't remove a car from the road?

Entire cities in China have been almost 100% electric for the scooters you describe for years now. It's odd to hear a petrol powered one when you're in a major city. They're predominantly lead acid too, so the recyling program is very efficient.
China has quietly led the electric revolution for over a decade. They don't make much fuss about it though, so the first world barely knows about it...

Do you believe they take a car of the road or are supplemental?

They absolutely take a car off the road. I would say 40-50% carry a pillion passenger too. It's more about traffic reduction and parking opportunities as far as I can tell, but there's no doubt the use of e-scooters has huge environmental benefits in built-up areas, even if the pollution is simply displaced to the not-so-green electricity generation facilities. There’s a different psychology in China compared to the western world in regards to transport. They’re about getting it done as simply and efficiently as possible. We’re about personal comfort...

[Tommy Cookers]

....Entire cities in China have been almost 100% electric for the scooters you describe for years now. It's odd to hear a petrol powered one when you're in a major city. They're predominantly lead acid too, so the recyling program is very efficient.

and what's the working life of the lead/acid battery ? (after which it is replaced - though this is called recycling)
100 cycles ? (fully charged - fully discharged - fully charged)
200 cycles maybe ?
the whole EV and hybrid thing relies on using only 35% of the fully charged - fully discharged capacity ...
the 6 year battery warranty comes from eg a 700x 100% cycle battery life spread over 2000x 35% cycles

btw
the evil fuel companies 'subsidy' is that income that's invested in new production isn't taxed as income that's not ...
same as any other business
and since directly fossil-fuelled and hybrid cars are to disappear (from the UK) by or before 2035 ....
(though indirectly fossil-fuelled EVs and their enabling subsidies are to continue) ....
how is our £28 billion motor fuel tax take to be replaced ? (and increased to match the forced explosion of EV uptake)

[AJI]

....Entire cities in China have been almost 100% electric for the scooters you describe for years now. It's odd to hear a petrol powered one when you're in a major city. They're predominantly lead acid too, so the recyling program is very efficient.

and what's the working life of the lead/acid battery ? (after which it is replaced - though this is called recycling)
100 cycles ? (fully charged - fully discharged - fully charged)
200 cycles maybe ?

the whole EV and hybrid thing relies on using only 35% of the fully charged - fully discharged capacity ...
the 6 year battery warranty comes from eg a 700x 100% cycle battery capability spread over 2000x 35% cycles

btw
the evil fuel companies 'subsidy' is that income that's invested in new production isn't taxed as income that's not ...
same as any other business
and since directly fossil-fuelled and hybrid cars are to disappear (from the UK) by or before 2035 ....
(though indirectly fossil-fuelled EVs and their enabling subsidies are to continue) ....
how is our £28 billion motor fuel tax take to be replaced ? (and increased to match the forced explosion of EV uptake)

I think you're arguing with the wrong guy. I'm simply offering anecdotes of my experiences in China rather than (as is too often done on this site) deferring to the ‘unquestionable expertise' of a 3 second Google search.
I'm not suggesting that China are doing things better than the western world, but their socio-economic place in the world right now lends itself to a more selfless form of transportation. While the Chinese elite are as flashy as westerners, the majority couldn’t give a sh1t that a Model S P100D can beat most supercars in the quarter mile sprint. They just want to get from point A to point B as quickly as possible. A 5kW scooter will beat a 300kW Tesla from point A to point B in any major city in the world all day long.

Re 'motor fuel tax', I assume this is similar to fuel excise in Oz? A 125cc bike uses very little fuel and pays very little fuel excise. I see little point in comparing them to an e-scooter in the China context, but I give you that it does make a small difference. However, a 300kW liquid hydrocarbon burning luxo-barge pays a lot of fuel excise and a 300kW Tesla pays none. I can see the rules changing on this very soon. Fuel excise will simply be replaced with a tare weight and km's travelled per year model and applied to your yearly registration. It unfairly punishes the owner of the vehicle rather than the driver, but with e-licences registering who is driving the vehicle at what time this can also be overcome. In Oz compulsory 3rd party insurance is also associated with the car rather than the driver. This unfair cost burden on the owner of the vehicle rather than the driver could also be rectified with the e-licence system?

[henry]

the whole EV and hybrid thing relies on using only 35% of the fully charged - fully discharged capacity ...
the 6 year battery warranty comes from eg a 700x 100% cycle battery life spread over 2000x 35% cycles

Conveniently this probably matches the usage pattern of most users, certainly mine, lots of short journeys, low cycle requirements, with less frequent longer journeys with a need for full battery capacity cycle requirement.

[Tim.Wright]

2% market share isn't what I'd call "going mad". Granted it's double what it was a year ago, but It means they aren't meeting the requirements of 98% of the new car buying population.

it doesn't mean that, it means they're extremely slow and expensive to start making so they're not available to buy.

Pretty sure that's not true at all. Tesla are producing around 100 000 vehicles a quarter. The e-Niro sold out (in the UK) because they only released 900 into the market.

[strad]

@ Andres and NZJRS.. I am not going to be drawn into yet another political argument.
If I am the only one that has been warned against having political arguments then I am officially lodging a complaint with the management as it seems one sided.
Andres.. You keep referring to "hundreds" of scientists that are believers.
I have listed a dozen highly awarded and credentialed scientists, even ones that were working for the IPCC that have gotten fed up with bad science and abandoned them. You have never shown one highly credentialed scientists that doesn't work for or with the U.N./IPCC. Not one independent. Instead you rely on press releases and talking heads from the media.
It is my opinion that you should study work from both sides. I have and that is why I feel the way I do.
Nothing you have said will change my mind and obviously nothing I say can change your mind.
Now I suggest we all drop this pointless discussion and return to whether Electric Vehicles Will Be Viable which I have said I believe they are or are getting there, just not for people on a limited budget.

[izzy]

Pretty sure that's not true at all. Tesla are producing around 100 000 vehicles a quarter. The e-Niro sold out (in the UK) because they only released 900 into the market.

the market share at this point is not lack of demand tho, is it? It's lack of supply, because the big oem's are only just getting into it. That's how startup Tesla is the second most valuable car maker on the planet. They're all selling every EV they can make, and the e-Niro sold out because there is more demand than supply

[Tim.Wright]

Pretty sure that's not true at all. Tesla are producing around 100 000 vehicles a quarter. The e-Niro sold out (in the UK) because they only released 900 into the market.

the market share at this point is not lack of demand tho, is it? It's lack of supply, because the big oem's are only just getting into it. That's how startup Tesla is the second most valuable car maker on the planet. They're all selling every EV they can make, and the e-Niro sold out because there is more demand than supply

It is a lack of demand - Tesla are not sold out. There's only a few months of waiting time for UK delivery.

Forget the e-Niro, it sold out because they only released 900 to the UK market. Find an EV which is delivering 20-30k vehicles and is sold out and then we can talk about there being a supply problem but as far as I'm aware there is none.