Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[nzjrs]

It's not political at all. Heck I don't care where you are from or what you vote for. I've been watching this argument online since you got AOL and I am genuinely curious where you are on my flow chart.

[izzy]

It is a lack of demand - Tesla are not sold out. There's only a few months of waiting time for UK delivery.

Forget the e-Niro, it sold out because they only released 900 to the UK market. Find an EV which is delivering 20-30k vehicles and is sold out and then we can talk about there being a supply problem but as far as I'm aware there is none.

Tesla's share price has just dropped because supply from their China factory has been frozen with the coronavirus. That's the gigafactory Elon built to meet demand And obviously months of waiting time means they have more demand than supply, that's why you have to wait! You're waiting for them to make some more, as they don't have any stock, they've sold everything and the cupboard is bare!

e-Niro sold out, because of demand, 900 or whatever. it's a supply problem at this point. They've only made 900 available so far because other markets have loads of demand as well. So they're making them as fast as they can but they have to ration them

And this is because EV's are very, very wonderful. They accelerate instantly, i mean really instantly, and almost silently, and a lot of people can charge them up from renewables. Have you been in one?

[djos]

how is our £28 billion motor fuel tax take to be replaced ? (and increased to match the forced explosion of EV uptake)

It's likely you pay an increase in Car registration or a Milage tax to pay for the road network.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/state ... 2019-12-30

[djos]

Andres.. You keep referring to "hundreds" of scientists that are believers.

Belief indicates no evidence, eg religion. The correct phrase is "accepts the science".

[3jawchuck]

Off-topic alert! Or sketchy at best, but we're in limbo aren't we. This is how Greta got across the Atlantic when they moved the climate conference from Chile to Spain. With no fossil fuel! Or hardly any, Two awesome globe-sailing Aussies! It's a great channel generally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frZI857axRs

The face of a ruined childhood.

[Wass85]

I must say climate, pollution or CO2 emisions are not the reason I like EV, those are just (for me) another reason to switch to EV, but to me the real reason I like EVs is because they´re a step forward, next step in technology. They reach same results with literally thousands pieces less, increasing reliability and reducing maintenance drastically. And perfomance is even better, with a flat torque curve. Better perfomance, more reliability, less maintenance if any, quiet, smooth (no vibrations at all)... They´re almost too good to be real sincerely

Size and price of the battery is the only problem, once EV can provide similar range but with a more reasonable battery size (all projects promise at least 2x energy density and much cheaper manufacturing costs), weight will also come down, and I can´t wait to test a sports car or bike, lighter than now with ICEs, and with electric torque and reactions...

Then the electric is greener debate is fun but to me that´s secondary, electric is the way to go anycase

The thing is though, battery technology is advancing that fast your brand spanker will be old news in 5 years time and will likely be worth pennies.

[izzy]

Off-topic alert! Or sketchy at best, but we're in limbo aren't we. This is how Greta got across the Atlantic when they moved the climate conference from Chile to Spain. With no fossil fuel! Or hardly any, Two awesome globe-sailing Aussies! It's a great channel generally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frZI857axRs

The face of a ruined childhood.

actually she has Aspergers syndrome, and if anything the activism has brought her to life:

Greta Thunberg’s father has opened up about his daughter’s struggles with depression “three or four years” before she began her school strike against climate change.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, which Greta guest-edited, Svante Thunberg revealed his daughter “fell ill”.

“She stopped talking, she stopped eating,” Svante said, adding that his daughter “was basically home for a year”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 63936.html

and have you watched the video? She's having a great life, with a purpose, knowing she's making a difference

[Tim.Wright]

It is a lack of demand - Tesla are not sold out. There's only a few months of waiting time for UK delivery.

Forget the e-Niro, it sold out because they only released 900 to the UK market. Find an EV which is delivering 20-30k vehicles and is sold out and then we can talk about there being a supply problem but as far as I'm aware there is none.

Tesla's share price has just dropped because supply from their China factory has been frozen with the coronavirus. That's the gigafactory Elon built to meet demand And obviously months of waiting time means they have more demand than supply, that's why you have to wait! You're waiting for them to make some more, as they don't have any stock, they've sold everything and the cupboard is bare!

e-Niro sold out, because of demand, 900 or whatever. it's a supply problem at this point. They've only made 900 available so far because other markets have loads of demand as well. So they're making them as fast as they can but they have to ration them

And this is because EV's are very, very wonderful. They accelerate instantly, i mean really instantly, and almost silently, and a lot of people can charge them up from renewables. Have you been in one?

Yes I have driven one, but it's beside the point. There's simply no supply problem. I can get a Tesla in the UK with only a 1 month waiting period so production is faaaar from saturated.

You can't cherry pick one underproduced car and claim there's a general supply problem for EVs.

There's no supply problem fo EV's, they just don't meet the demands of 98% of new car buyers. And until they fix the issue of slow charging times, it will remain like that.

[izzy]

Yes I have driven one, but it's beside the point. There's simply no supply problem. I can get a Tesla in the UK with only a 1 month waiting period so production is faaaar from saturated.

You can't cherry pick one underproduced car and claim there's a general supply problem for EVs.

There's no supply problem fo EV's, they just don't meet the demands of 98% of new car buyers. And until they fix the issue of slow charging times, it will remain like that.

it's not one month it's next month, sometime, and it's a £38,500 BMW 3-series competitor at best, and Elon's just built a factory in China so he can keep up with demand. Gimme a mainstream £20-something EV car you can just go and buy with no waiting list. Something reasonably recent i mean, not an old Leaf. For example:

Hyundai has responded to unprecedented customer demand for the Kona Electric by “drastically” cutting waiting times for UK orders.

The Kona went on sale in the UK in the second half of 2019, but demand rapidly outstripped projected supply. By early 2019 the waiting list was up to 12 months for the EV, with brand sources admitting they significantly under-estimated demand. Restrictions on battery supply and the desire to sell more EVs in 2020 to aid fleet average emissions targets were also a factor.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... a-electric

[strad]

Andres.. You keep referring to "hundreds" of scientists that are believers.

Belief indicates no evidence, eg religion. The correct phrase is "accepts the science".

Semantic games. You know exactly what I mean.

[Cold Fussion]

"it's not happening" -> "its happening but not our fault" -> "it's happening and partly our fault but there is nothing we can do about it" -> "its happening but won't be bad" -> "OK maybe if those pesky greenies had argued better I would have believed them earlier, it's too late now"

[Andres125sx]

Anytime this discussion starts again and I mention NASA as an example about how absurd is your conspiracy theory, you always, systematically, stop arguing. Then some days after you start again repeating the same as if the discussion would have never occured, and obviously ignoring NASA again (and ONU, UN, etc.) and acting again as if it was only the politicians of IPCC who warns about CC

@ Andres and NZJRS.. I am not going to be drawn into yet another political argument.

... and another cycle finished, you don´t have any argument to reply so you just dodge the question again. Next cycle will start in...

You have never shown one highly credentialed scientists that doesn't work for or with the U.N./IPCC.

True, not one, but several. NASA is composed by a lot is scientists from very different fields, and they are not working for UN/IPCC. Any reason you also ignore these renowned scientists? NASA doesn´t count as a scientific and reliable opinion Strad? Or maybe they´re trying to upset those who pay their bills for fun?

This is not a link to one report, but a summary with evidences from 9 different fields, so this is not the opinion of one scientist, but at least 9 different groups of scientists all of them agreeing about CC
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

[Andres125sx]

I must say climate, pollution or CO2 emisions are not the reason I like EV, those are just (for me) another reason to switch to EV, but to me the real reason I like EVs is because they´re a step forward, next step in technology. They reach same results with literally thousands pieces less, increasing reliability and reducing maintenance drastically. And perfomance is even better, with a flat torque curve. Better perfomance, more reliability, less maintenance if any, quiet, smooth (no vibrations at all)... They´re almost too good to be real sincerely

Size and price of the battery is the only problem, once EV can provide similar range but with a more reasonable battery size (all projects promise at least 2x energy density and much cheaper manufacturing costs), weight will also come down, and I can´t wait to test a sports car or bike, lighter than now with ICEs, and with electric torque and reactions...

Then the electric is greener debate is fun but to me that´s secondary, electric is the way to go anycase

The thing is though, battery technology is advancing that fast your brand spanker will be old news in 5 years time and will likely be worth pennies.

Not true, batteries can be replaced and once done, the EV will perform exactly the same as brand new. The battery is the only part of an electric power train that suffer some wear. Once battery prices go down, so a change is not that expensive, EVs will provide virtually unlimited lifespan

I've even read some new batteries in development will replace current ones with no mods at all

Even new batteries in development can replace old ones. A battery just provide electricity, the car doesn't bother about its age or technology, only the charging method need to be compatible, but even if that need a mod, it will be easy

[Andres125sx]

There's no supply problem fo EV's, they just don't meet the demands of 98% of new car buyers. And until they fix the issue of slow charging times, it will remain like that.

Right now EVs must fight an industry with a century experience, with all processes perfectly optimized, wich manufacture so many units that pricing has been going down for decades, and also with investments wich paid off long ago, while EVs are just starting to recover some of the investments done, processes are far from optimized (they're new), and whose manufacturing numbers are so small pricing can still go down dramatically

Wait until EV pricing goes down a bit, then the comparison will be more fair, it's not about meeting demands, it's just about pricing, few people pay more than needed to meet their demands, once price of EV is not higher than ICE...

[strad]

True, not one, but several. NASA is composed by ……….

When you make these statements you prove that you have not studied both sides maybe not at all. Just drop it you cannot win with me. Quit arguing and get back on topic.