Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[nzjrs]

Just drop it you cannot win with me.

For those who argue as sport, it's not productive to volley facts back and forth. In my experience it's best to just ask them where they stand.

So strad, if you could spare the time to answer, where are you on the flowchart?

"it's not happening" -> "its happening but not our fault" -> "it's happening and partly our fault but there is nothing we can do about it" -> "its happening but won't be bad" -> "OK maybe if those pesky greenies had argued better I would have believed them earlier, it's too late now"

[Tim.Wright]

There's no supply problem fo EV's, they just don't meet the demands of 98% of new car buyers. And until they fix the issue of slow charging times, it will remain like that.

Right now EVs must fight an industry with a century experience, with all processes perfectly optimized, wich manufacture so many units that pricing has been going down for decades, and also with investments wich paid off long ago, while EVs are just starting to recover some of the investments done, processes are far from optimized (they're new), and whose manufacturing numbers are so small pricing can still go down dramatically

Wait until EV pricing goes down a bit, then the comparison will be more fair, it's not about meeting demands, it's just about pricing, few people pay more than needed to meet their demands, once price of EV is not higher than ICE...

You're listing points that support my argument - I don't know if that's intentional...

[nzjrs]

You're listing points that support my argument - I don't know if that's intentional...

I agree.

Related, does anyone have any statistics on the percentage of people that have a garage (for overnight EV charging). It's common that load and opportunistic storage assumptions for EVs at scale depend on this (at least transitionally) but right now I'm in a country where "only" apartment living with on street parking is available.

[izzy]

You're listing points that support my argument - I don't know if that's intentional...

are you Australian? i think things might be a bit different there, culturally, apparently there's a political scene about it, with someone saying EV's mean "the end of the weekend" , with utes and everything, and of course it's a huge country completely different to Europe and even the States. So there's no infrastructure or incentives. Anyway in the US this is what's going on:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/10/te ... landslide/
That is DE-MAND baby

[Tim.Wright]

Again, you are cherry picking stats. I give up...

Fact is, anyone can have an EV in their driveway in a few weeks and 98% are still choosing not to. End of story.

[izzy]

Again, you are cherry picking stats. I give up...

Fact is, anyone can have an EV in their driveway in a few weeks and 98% are still choosing not to. End of story.

98% of people haven't replaced their car recently so that's simply not true, and it's not true they're freely available in the world as a whole yet, like for like. You're quite right to give up, especially as my post was another valid data stat, and another one you had to dodge

[hollus]

Everybody, please try to stay civil and avoid pure politics. Neither side is going to convince the other by insistence, so please, stop hammering.
Actually staying on topic is so much that I almost don´t dare to ask

[Greg Locock]

98% of new car buyers don't buy electric vehicles. That is the fact.

[izzy]

Everybody, please try to stay civil and avoid pure politics. Neither side is going to convince the other by insistence, so please, stop hammering.
Actually staying on topic is so much that I almost don´t dare to ask

afaics we're arguing reasonably civilly with data about the topic, inasmuch as demand is obviously a big correlate of viability. Obviously an esteemed fellow member has set out to defend a position that data is always going to demolish, i don't see that's my fault or a problem, unless the boys are supposed to win (statistically i can't help noticing mod interventions come after my posts more often than randomly!) Politics got mentioned once as part of the landscape, the culture and a factor in viability.

and the point of posting is not to convince the other individual it's something for everyone to read, join in or just consider to help make up their own minds about it

[izzy]

98% of new car buyers don't buy electric vehicles. That is the fact.

what you need is the data, of people choosing. That's the point isn't it? Having a choice, like for like, and choosing ICE. Data of existing car ownership isn't that. It might be 98% still choosing ICE in Oz, and if you've got that data then fair enough

[Just_a_fan]

98% of new car buyers don't buy electric vehicles. That is the fact.

Depends where you look. In Norway it's well in excess of 50%. China is nearly 5%, the UK is over 3%. A number of countries are in to double figure percentages, a good number are moving that way.

[djos]

98% of new car buyers don't buy electric vehicles. That is the fact.

I bought a new car last year, and another the year before that. The reasons I didn’t buy an EV for either car was A/ price (for both cars) and B/ Lack of interstate charging infrastructure (applies only to the family SUV).

If item A was solved, my personal daily driver would be an EV, for me it’s just a no brainer but the economics aren’t there yet.

[AJI]

98% of new car buyers don't buy electric vehicles. That is the fact.

I bought a new car last year, and another the year before that. The reasons I didn’t buy an EV for either car was A/ price (for both cars) and B/ Lack of interstate charging infrastructure (applies only to the family SUV).

If item A was solved, my personal daily driver would be an EV, for me it’s just a no brainer but the economics aren’t there yet.

Australia is a tough sell for BEV's. We have massive distances between major centres (which makes charging time a genuine concern) and the roadside charging infrastructure isn't there anyway.
The other issue is price. Sure BEV's will cost less to manufacture as the uptake continues which should translate into a lower sticker price, but once fuel excise is replaced with a km's driven model they won't be as attractive for per km cost savings as they are now.

I'd love to see more progress in the PHEV area while charging times and range issues are sorted, but manufacturers look like they're skipping that stage in favour of pure BEV's.

[Andres125sx]

There's no supply problem fo EV's, they just don't meet the demands of 98% of new car buyers. And until they fix the issue of slow charging times, it will remain like that.

Right now EVs must fight an industry with a century experience, with all processes perfectly optimized, wich manufacture so many units that pricing has been going down for decades, and also with investments wich paid off long ago, while EVs are just starting to recover some of the investments done, processes are far from optimized (they're new), and whose manufacturing numbers are so small pricing can still go down dramatically

Wait until EV pricing goes down a bit, then the comparison will be more fair, it's not about meeting demands, it's just about pricing, few people pay more than needed to meet their demands, once price of EV is not higher than ICE...

You're listing points that support my argument - I don't know if that's intentional...

I´m not arguing, I´m just clarifying it´s not a matter of meeting demands, but simply about pricing. Actually they meet demands even better than ICEs, they´re easier to use, they don´t need to warm up, they´re silent, they´re smooth, and provide more range than 80-90% of people need.

But if they´re more expensive, meeting demands is secondary. I´m not into the sales debate, I don´t care about that

[Phil]

I´m not arguing, I´m just clarifying it´s not a matter of meeting demands, but simply about pricing. Actually they meet demands even better than ICEs, they´re easier to use, they don´t need to warm up, they´re silent, they´re smooth, and provide more range than 80-90% of people need.

People rarely buy cars based on their most common commute. The EV folks just love to throw around that the majority uses their car for what, 40km daily average. So? Every now and then, I do trips in excess of 500-1000km. My vehicle has to cover all eventualities. If I'd buy an electric vehicle, some trips would just not be possible. Some might be, but not as convenient.

When buying a car, especially if it can only be one vehicle, has to justify its price for a wide range of purposes, not just the most common one. I live in a country where we actually have a lot of EVs (not just Teslas) on the road - though I strongly assume most are 2nd vehicles used for those daily commutes. I know I would use it for the purpose if I had one.