Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[Just_a_fan]

Australia is a tough sell for BEV's. We have massive distances between major centres (which makes charging time a genuine concern) and the roadside charging infrastructure isn't there anyway.

Some places will struggle with BEVs where distances are large. Maybe "long range" versions will be required for these markets, however that might be done.

Many places don't have that problem, of course, especially urban regions.

[nzjrs]

Australia is a tough sell for BEV's. We have massive distances between major centres (which makes charging time a genuine concern) and the roadside charging infrastructure isn't there anyway.

Some places will struggle with BEVs where distances are large. Maybe "long range" versions will be required for these markets, however that might be done.

Many places don't have that problem, of course, especially urban regions.

I was alluding a bit to this in my previous post. Certain types of urban regions have a charging (BEV) problem, a lack of charging options for dense urban apartment living.

I asked if anyone knew or had an intuition about the relevance of this type of car buyer to the general market.

[Just_a_fan]

I was alluding a bit to this in my previous post. Certain types of urban regions have a charging (BEV) problem, a lack of charging options for dense urban apartment living.

I asked if anyone knew or had an intuition about the relevance of this type of car buyer to the general market.

BEVs are increasing in popularity in the UK but we do have a lot of reasonably dense urban areas which also have off-street parking. Planning requirements are for parking to be provided where new houses are built so the majority of new developments (in the last twenty years, at least) have driveways. This facilitates people charging a BEV.

I see a reasonable number of charging points on houses in my job (I'm a building surveyor) although it's by no means a deluge of them yet.

Motorway service areas have some charging points - particularly the Tesla ones - and this helps, although of course little Blighty is a tiny place with short distances to cover compared to Oz, parts of the USA, etc. and that makes it easier.

I think we have to be realistic and accept that one solution does not fit all use cases, certainly not at the moment with current technology.

[AJI]

I asked if anyone knew or had an intuition about the relevance of this type of car buyer to the general market.

We all have our opinions and nothing is going to get solved here, but the reality is what we have with ICE powered vehicles is a 'cake and eat it' situation. They have massive range and can be refuelled in 5 minutes. Currently BEVs don't offer that convenience, possibly they never will? Time will tell...

Right now, a PHEV would make the most sense for me. I have a medium-large solar setup and mostly work from home so I can charge it easily. I do lots of short trips because I live in a small country town with no public transport options, so EV would be great for that, but I need an SUV because I live in a rural area and have to use un-sealed roads a few times a week. I also need big range for long distance runs and am used to seeing 1100+ kms on my trip computer when I fill the tank. I tow a lot so I like diesel power.
PHEV is 'cake and eat it', BEV will never tick those boxes.

[henry]

I don’t think looking at annual percentage of all car sales is a good measure of demands for BEVs.

I think you have to look at proportion of sales in the segment in which they are sold. A simple segmentation would be price. I would suggest that in the U.K. BEV sales have a lower price point of GBP25000. So to get to the proportion choosing BEV we have to determine the number of vehicles sold above that price to compare with the number of BEVs sold.

In January 2020 there were 150,000 car registrations around 35000 were for brands that only have vehicles above that price, Audi, BMW, etc. 4000 were BEVs. So the maximum penetration in that price bracket for BEVs was 11%.

Of course some of other brands sales will be above that level. So another way would be to look at the mix of sales by vehicle type. The SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) have that information but charge for it. From sample info they publish around 2/3 of sales are for vehicles in the mini, Supermini and lower medium categories of vehicle. If I assume the remainder are the market competing for the BEV pound then the BEV penetration in January 2020 was about 8%.

It will be interesting to follow the trend through the year.

[nzjrs]

PHEV is 'cake and eat it', BEV will never tick those boxes.

Oh completely agree there.

I sometimes think the popularity / marketability of BEVs comes at the expense of PHEVs, which are, I feel, a better option for a long term move to a different energy economy.

The most cynical version would I guess be, BEVs are a better second car for people than can afford/want/need a second car. But it's not improving the first car energy problem (ok maybe people do use the 1st car less) , or it's not building the economies of scale to long-term solve the first car / personal transport problem.

I guess auto makers know that too, maybe the profit margins work out better on some segments than others.

It's almosy a bit of a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" situation. I hope policy doesn't harm PHEVs to encourage BEVs while hiding the energy generation problems for future policymakers to solve.

[Just_a_fan]

I don't understand why more regen braking isn't available on ICE cars. Running along at a steady speed on a main road isn't too demanding on fuel, it's the accelerating up to speed that's a big fuel user - put your trip computer to show instantaneous mpg to see the effect of even moderate acceleration. We have lots of cars that are over 1.5-2 tonnes these days and that means a lot of energy is wasted every time they brake. It would be relatively simple to add a generator / motor unit in to the drive train, coupled to a battery or super cap. Then a good chunk of the wasted energy wouldn't be wasted and fuel use would be reduced. That's a relatively easy win all round, isn't it?

[Big Tea]

I don't understand why more regen braking isn't available on ICE cars. Running along at a steady speed on a main road isn't too demanding on fuel, it's the accelerating up to speed that's a big fuel user - put your trip computer to show instantaneous mpg to see the effect of even moderate acceleration. We have lots of cars that are over 1.5-2 tonnes these days and that means a lot of energy is wasted every time they brake. It would be relatively simple to add a generator / motor unit in to the drive train, coupled to a battery or super cap. Then a good chunk of the wasted energy wouldn't be wasted and fuel use would be reduced. That's a relatively easy win all round, isn't it?

This would be the ideal 'job' for a flywheel storage device.

[Just_a_fan]

This would be the ideal 'job' for a flywheel storage device.

Perhaps, although I'd have thought it adds a layer of inefficiency and probably some packaging issues that a simple battery-based regen-store wouldn't.

[Andres125sx]

I asked if anyone knew or had an intuition about the relevance of this type of car buyer to the general market.

We all have our opinions and nothing is going to get solved here, but the reality is what we have with ICE powered vehicles is a 'cake and eat it' situation. They have massive range and can be refuelled in 5 minutes. Currently BEVs don't offer that convenience, possibly they never will? Time will tell...

Right now, a PHEV would make the most sense for me. I have a medium-large solar setup and mostly work from home so I can charge it easily. I do lots of short trips because I live in a small country town with no public transport options, so EV would be great for that, but I need an SUV because I live in a rural area and have to use un-sealed roads a few times a week. I also need big range for long distance runs and am used to seeing 1100+ kms on my trip computer when I fill the tank. I tow a lot so I like diesel power.
PHEV is 'cake and eat it', BEV will never tick those boxes.

Not 1100km range (I guess that´s total distance covered with your tank, not the distance between your home and the place to go), but if 650 are enough then this one indeed tick all those boxes. If 650km are not enogh just wait for next generation of batteries

It also ticks another box you didn´t ask for, but surely you´d be happy with it. 0-60mph in 3 seconds


I´ve just noticed something I didn´t first time I watched. Is he saying at 3:30 that it can spin around itself like a tank with right wheels moving forward and left ones moving backwards (or viceversa)? I think he must be talking about capabilities, things they could do with that setup, because if that´s possible they´d be advertising that feature much louder. But it should be possible with one motor per wheel, with many more features like perfect yaw control or ummatched TC

Edit: I´ve just seen written in the board where that bare chassis is hanged "it enables Tank steer."

[strad]

Actually pretty cool. I'm not sure about the one side forward other side backwards thing you spoke of.
It's very nice and the range is good. However 60 to 70 thou is way too expensive for a short bed pick-up.

[Andres125sx]

I'm not sure about the one side forward other side backwards thing you spoke of.

Sorry, didn´t know how to say it, then I noticed they call it tank steer

It's very nice and the range is good. However 60 to 70 thou is way too expensive for a short bed pick-up.

Short bed, yes, but with two rows of seats, hypercar acceleration and probably on its own league when off-road with 800hp and unmatched traction control thanks to the four motors controlling each wheel independently

IMHO 60-70k$ is far from expensive for all that

It will be heavy tough

[izzy]

PHEV is 'cake and eat it', BEV will never tick those boxes.

Oh completely agree there.

I sometimes think the popularity / marketability of BEVs comes at the expense of PHEVs, which are, I feel, a better option for a long term move to a different energy economy.

The most cynical version would I guess be, BEVs are a better second car for people than can afford/want/need a second car. But it's not improving the first car energy problem (ok maybe people do use the 1st car less) , or it's not building the economies of scale to long-term solve the first car / personal transport problem.

I guess auto makers know that too, maybe the profit margins work out better on some segments than others.

It's almosy a bit of a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" situation. I hope policy doesn't harm PHEVs to encourage BEVs while hiding the energy generation problems for future policymakers to solve.

yes in theory a plug-in hybrid is the ideal way in the short term isn't it, while energy density of batteries is so much worse than petrol and diesel. Tho they have just been finding that a lot of people don't bother plugging them in, and that makes them worse instead of better. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... ggest.html. We booked a test drive of an i3 a year or two ago and the dealer hadn't bothered plugging it either!

they are heavier than either BEV's or ICE's of course. It's especially a problem if the battery range isn't very much. But i think the whole thing is about battery technology and they'll all be going mad on it, they won't be holding back because of PHEV's

[AJI]

I don't understand why more regen braking isn't available on ICE cars. Running along at a steady speed on a main road isn't too demanding on fuel, it's the accelerating up to speed that's a big fuel user - put your trip computer to show instantaneous mpg to see the effect of even moderate acceleration. We have lots of cars that are over 1.5-2 tonnes these days and that means a lot of energy is wasted every time they brake. It would be relatively simple to add a generator / motor unit in to the drive train, coupled to a battery or super cap. Then a good chunk of the wasted energy wouldn't be wasted and fuel use would be reduced. That's a relatively easy win all round, isn't it?

You're pretty much describing MHEV's.
Audi, Mercedes, a few others are doing this, but they're 48volt and don't have a lot of power. They're basically a heavy duty replacement for the alternator and in some cases the starter motor.
Even though F1 is about as far from road relevant as you can get, I see the MGU-K as the perfect fit for PHEV use. 120kW & 200Nm is good useable power & torque and also big enough for good regeneration capability, they're the starter motor and alternator, and they couple directly to the crank.
This spec, redesigned to be more robust for real world conditions, would be ideal.
Couple it with a small turbo diesel and add ~20kWh of storage and I'm sold.

[AJI]

... If 650km are not enogh just wait for next generation of batteries...

I've been waiting for a while now, as have you, no? Just re-read some of your posts about emerging battery tech from years ago.
I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I believe you and me belong to the optimists side of the battery tech argument, and it's getting tiresome perpetually being disappointed...
There's also the re-charge time. Will that ever be solved? When the current option is 5 minutes re-fueling and 'the future' is half an hour it's a tough sell, no matter how many times you tell people 'why not just have a half hour break?'

It also ticks another box you didn´t ask for, but surely you´d be happy with it. 0-60mph in 3 seconds

This is the biggest red herring out there.
BEV's are a one-trick-pony in this respect.
Who really cares if your BEV can out accelerate an ICE super car? Back in the real world, if you offer 0-100 in 7 seconds and a 5 minute charge or a car that takes 30 minutes to charge, but can do 0-100 in 3 seconds, which one will you choose?
The fact is, BEV manufacturers can't offer option 1, so they push option 2 like it's something everyone needs...