Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[djos]

Data is great but where is the analysis that explains the source for particulate observations?

For all we know the source could be all the house hold heating systems that would not normally be in use during the day because normally folk would be at school and work.

[henry]

Data is great but where is the analysis that explains the source for particulate observations?

For all we know the source could be all the house hold heating systems that would not normally be in use during the day because normally folk would be at school and work.

When I said domestic appliances I meant heating systems and cooking ranges etc. It seems likely that more people at home will have meant more use of these.

Edited; removed error v

[henry]

There is another possible explanation why airborne particulates have gone up on Euston road.

Moving traffic lifts particulates off the road and into the air. The faster the traffic the greater this effect. Normally average speeds on the Euston road are very low, stop-start all through the day. Under lockdown they are much higher, just had a look on a TfL webcam and traffic is whizzing along. If that is the case I would expect airborne PM to go down this week because heavy rain will have reduced the PM on the road.

This Aerodynamic effect, lifting particulates, along with vehicle weight, is why some consider that BEVs don’t confer a benefit in PM levels in comparison with ICEVs.

[Andres125sx]

That graph goes up to may 20th

Are you sure it´s from 2020?

[henry]

That graph goes up to may 20th

Are you sure it´s from 2020?

It goes up to may1 2020. I specified the date range Jan 1 2020 to May 1 2020.

[Big Tea]

Data is great but where is the analysis that explains the source for particulate observations?

For all we know the source could be all the house hold heating systems that would not normally be in use during the day because normally folk would be at school and work.

If my area is anything to go by, the number of outdoor barbecues is up by a magnitude.

[Andres125sx]

That graph goes up to may 20th

Are you sure it´s from 2020?

It goes up to may1 2020. I specified the date range Jan 1 2020 to May 1 2020.

Ah ok thanks

But I can´t see any line doubling in that graph, the blue and pink lines have some spikes, but the values are very similar

About NOx, cars are under 20% of city pollution (over 50% for heating, rest is industry), so a 75% traffic reduction should only cause a 15% city pollution reduction. Then it´s the industry lockdown to take into account too. Then home heatings goes up...

It´s not a straightforward analysis I´m afraid

[henry]

That graph goes up to may 20th

Are you sure it´s from 2020?

It goes up to may1 2020. I specified the date range Jan 1 2020 to May 1 2020.

Ah ok thanks

But I can´t see any line doubling in that graph, the blue and pink lines have some spikes, but the values are very similar

About NOx, cars are under 20% of city pollution (over 50% for heating, rest is industry), so a 75% traffic reduction should only cause a 15% city pollution reduction. Then it´s the industry lockdown to take into account too. Then home heatings goes up...

It´s not a straightforward analysis I´m afraid

I agree, it’s not straightforward. However, the lockdown provides an unprecedented opportunity to validate models such as you mention. They can obviously vary considerably. In the U.K. Road Transport is about 30% and domestic heating isn’t significant enough to be separated out. For particulates domestic heating is much more significant.
Traffic volumes in London have reduced dramatically and detailed info is available from Google, and probably others. A well equipped researcher should be able to obtain data on gas consumption, domestic and commercial, which would reflect the Heating you mention. I can find data on Domestic electricity consumption, it’s up 15%, but not gas. Other data, such as wind and weather, are readily available. I expect lots of research in the future to validate or create models.

In relation to the thread these things are significant because the short/medium term viability of BEVs is bound up with political decisions on controlling pollution, hopefully guided by research. As an example TESLA received USD594m last year from other car makers by selling emissions credits. Since 2012 they have earned over USD 2billion by that mechanism.



From https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto ... s-revenue/

In early years these credits were 10% of Tesla revenue and even now its 2% which has virtually zero associated cost.

[Andres125sx]

That´s interesting, didn´t know

It´s not a whole country obviously, but I manage a ressident association of more than 500 homes with close to 2000 people, and on monday I can provide some comparison numbers of gas consumption from april 2019 and 2020. It´s not a straightforward analysis either as temps vary consumption drastically, but it will provide a vague idea

[victormartin01]

From a driver's point of view, a modern electric car is also smooth as there are no gears and easy to drive and anyone can have quite good fun, too, because when you touch accelerator, it can give an instant response.

Electric cars are improving all the time to meet people's requirements and Tesla Model S can cover approximately 300 miles with a single charge and even mainstream electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more viable involving models such as Nisaan Leaf and Renault Zoe Z.E. 40 now can travel 150 miles between charges.

As EVs are improving its capabilities means they are becoming viable option for many motorists. However, if you are doing 20,000 miles a year then opting for electric car is not appropriate option for you. It has estimated, by 2025, there will be 130 EVs from which customers can choose accordingly. But still, it is not possible to say EVs will suit everybody.

[Andres125sx]

That´s interesting, didn´t know

It´s not a whole country obviously, but I manage a ressident association of more than 500 homes with close to 2000 people, and on monday I can provide some comparison numbers of gas consumption from april 2019 and 2020. It´s not a straightforward analysis either as temps vary consumption drastically, but it will provide a vague idea

Gas consumption in april didn´t show any significant increase, actually it´s less than past season´s april, 38k when it was 43k in 2019 so temps affect a lot more than confinement. Obviously it was well below average (55-60k)

[Ferry]

However, if you are doing 20,000 miles a year then opting for electric car is not appropriate option for you.

I generally agree with you, but 20.000 miles a year with an EV is not a problem. I doing the myself, in a BMW i3. It all depends on your driving habits. If you drive 50 km to work, that's 230 works days/year x 50 km x 2 = 23.000 km. A few weekend trips on top of that and you can easily do 30-40.000 km/year. I've driven 140.000 km with EV for the past 5,5 years.

[Jolle]

The coming VW iD3 has a singe charge range of 550 km. I guess that is more then enough for 99% of current golf owners in Europe.

[strad]

That sounds good on the face of it 341 miles, but lets say I want to go from here to Galveston 2355 miles. Not at all uncommon. After I drain the battery going the 341 miles how long do I have to stop to get another 341 miles? With petrol I can pull in gas up and go another 300+ miles after a 10 minute fill up. We in the U.S. want to drive straight thru.

[Tim.Wright]

I'd argue going 2355 miles in a private car is extremely uncommon.

I'd still argue that the issue of EV's is not the range but the recharge time. If I'm using a car to ping-pong aroung urban areas my travel time is usually 10-20 mins.

If I need to stop to charge during one of these journies, even at a fast charger, I will in the best case at least double my travel time and in the worst case I will need to cancel appointments because I'm stuck at a 2,3 kW charger and wont be moving for hours. And for 97% of the car buying population this doesn't cut it - especially given the price premium of EV's.

Many sports cars have a range of <400 km but you don't hear people complaining about range because it takes 2 minutes to fix the problem.