Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[henry]

Same for EVs, even if they´re not viable for everybody, they are for many people, so the only question remaining is when they will become mainstream

I think that is right Andres and I think I should have named the thread :When Will Electric Vehicles Become Mainstream.
I'm not sure your average consumer will quite grasp all this battery stuff you guys have been talking about.
They don't want to have to worry about amounts of charging they just want to charge them and drive them.

You’re right. I think it’s much more than “not quite grasp”. As you say; they, we, don’t want to worry about such things. All of the people I know currently with BEVs, early adopters, are techies
and well organised. They wouldn’t dream of leaving on a trip without a charging plan and a backup. I don’t think that’s going to be the case with many of the next wave, particularly those in the U.K. encouraged by tax breaks.

The car makers will need to do a lot to make the cars suitable for the majority of people for whom most of how cars work is a mystery. The challenge is made doubly difficult because the state of knowledge of batteries appears to be in constant flux. In this respect Tesla’s approach of over the air updates brings the advantage that they can modify charging regimes as they, and their customers, learn.

I’m grateful to the contributions from the posters here, they’ve improved my understanding and pointed me aT resources that have also helped. My plan was to go electric this year. Looks like next year now, gives me a chance to practise battery management on my phone in readiness for the costlier outlay that will be a car.

[Just_a_fan]

Same for EVs, even if they´re not viable for everybody, they are for many people, so the only question remaining is when they will become mainstream

I think that is right Andres and I think I should have named the thread :When Will Electric Vehicles Become Mainstream.
I'm not sure your average consumer will quite grasp all this battery stuff you guys have been talking about.
They don't want to have to worry about amounts of charging they just want to charge them and drive them.

Indeed so. And for many (most?) drivers, sticking it on charge when they get home after work will mean they never worry about range because they'll always have enough to get to work and home. Which is all you want from a commuting/school run/shopping car. That's mainstream car use in most urban environments.

There will always be outliers, just as with current cars. I can legally tow 3.5 tonnes with my vehicle. For most people that will be more than they ever need (it's more than I need as I usually only go up to 2.5 tonnes but the extra capacity is nice to have and I know the vehicle will be well within its limits during my normal towing). But there are the occasional few that want to tow bigger loads. So they end up with bespoke solutions. Ultra long range drivers will end up with bespoke solutions, whether that is an ICE car kept for those trips, or a hybrid, or a long range trailer (filled with batteries) or some other idea we haven't even thought of.

[Just_a_fan]

Looks like next year now, gives me a chance to practise battery management on my phone in readiness for the costlier outlay that will be a car.

I just had an image of your phone sat on your drive, plugged in to a wall socket on the front of your house!

[Ferry]

You mean that when an EV is sold, the battery is used maybe from 35% to 85% wich provides the advertised range, but year by year that margin is increased, using the battery from 32 to 87% after some time of use, 30-90% some years later, and at some point battery is used from 0-100%, so battery capacity reduction due to age is compensated and the EV keep a similar range during all its lifespan?

That would be a strange strategy. The wear on the battery would increase more and more as the capacity is decreased. A downward spiral for battery life. Charging it to higher and higher voltage and discharge it to lower and lower voltage as the capacity decreases. I'm skeptical...
The "buffer" is not a capacity buffer. It's a voltage buffer. The cells are charged/discharged to a upper and lower voltage to prolong battery life. As a rule of thumb each 0,1 volt decreased max voltage doubles the available charging cycles. My BMW i3 charges the cells to 4,1 volt. Max voltage for lithium is considered to be 4,2 volts. I don't think BMW alters the voltage limits for the battery as it ages. But I don't know for sure, and I haven't tested it myself. Some rapid chargers show me the battery voltage, so I could actually try it. I can read out the max. capacity for the battery in the menus of the car though. It's reduced over time. I haven't checked it for a long time now.

[Ferry]

I'm not sure your average consumer will quite grasp all this battery stuff you guys have been talking about.
They don't want to have to worry about amounts of charging they just want to charge them and drive them.

Batteries are no more complicated than combustion engines. Both have their quirks. There's a whole lot of things you should and shouldn't do with an ice. But most of us has learnt all that from childhood, so we don't even think about it. It all comes natural to not rev a cold engine high, stay in the right gears, change the oil at intervals, don't slip the clutch for long, change the timing belt, and the list goes on.
When I think about it there's not much wrong I could do to the battery of my i3. Maybe the worst thing is to drive it empty and park it in the cold for a long time. But if I stop the car when the battery is low, I get a warning to charge it immediately to prevent damage to the HV battery. If the battery is very cold the power output is lower, but that is controlled by the computer. Nothing I can override. Same with regen. It's not possible to overcharge the battery. BMW says "charge it when you can". No need to charge it half full or similar tricks.

[henry]

Looks like next year now, gives me a chance to practise battery management on my phone in readiness for the costlier outlay that will be a car.

I just had an image of your phone sat on your drive, plugged in to a wall socket on the front of your house!

Where do you keep yours?

[Just_a_fan]

Looks like next year now, gives me a chance to practise battery management on my phone in readiness for the costlier outlay that will be a car.

I just had an image of your phone sat on your drive, plugged in to a wall socket on the front of your house!

Where do you keep yours?

My phone? Not on my drive, that's for sure.

[djos]

The key here is what I highlighted, once or twice a year

True but 2,500+ k's of road trip driving per year is still getting close to 20% of our average yearly total of 15,000 k's driven for that vehicle.

Yes but not sure what you mean with this. It´s 20% of total mileage but only for those who made those long trips, not the real average.

It´s also showing how many mileage you´d save to your own car, increasing its lifespan, reducing maintenance costs, and making this combination more sensible. It would also make your own car choice more appropiate to the daily use it will do 80% of the time, so it´s all advantages

I'm merely pointing out that in Australia and the USA this is very common use case for vehicles - we will happily drive 200kms and back for a weekend away. From conversations with our UK/EU based family, it's my understanding this is not normal behavior there.

Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% pro-BEV's - I'm merely pointing out that very fast charging infrastructure (eg 15-30 mins for a full charge) is absolutely key to allow full mainstream takeup of BEV's in Australia and America. That and price parity with ICE cars (TCO, not sticker price).

Personally I intensely dislike PHEV's, they are a very poor compromise and as a total package, very inefficient use of resources. The complexity means you get none of the low servicing costs of BEV's, in fact you have higher servicing costs than conventional ICE vehicles, and their packaging is compromised by having dual power sources.

[Andres125sx]

Same for EVs, even if they´re not viable for everybody, they are for many people, so the only question remaining is when they will become mainstream

I think that is right Andres and I think I should have named the thread :When Will Electric Vehicles Become Mainstream.
I'm not sure your average consumer will quite grasp all this battery stuff you guys have been talking about.
They don't want to have to worry about amounts of charging they just want to charge them and drive them.

Agree, even when I also agree with Ferry when he said it´s not different to ICEs

[Andres125sx]

You mean that when an EV is sold, the battery is used maybe from 35% to 85% wich provides the advertised range, but year by year that margin is increased, using the battery from 32 to 87% after some time of use, 30-90% some years later, and at some point battery is used from 0-100%, so battery capacity reduction due to age is compensated and the EV keep a similar range during all its lifespan?

That would be a strange strategy. The wear on the battery would increase more and more as the capacity is decreased. A downward spiral for battery life. Charging it to higher and higher voltage and discharge it to lower and lower voltage as the capacity decreases. I'm skeptical...
The "buffer" is not a capacity buffer. It's a voltage buffer. The cells are charged/discharged to a upper and lower voltage to prolong battery life. As a rule of thumb each 0,1 volt decreased max voltage doubles the available charging cycles. My BMW i3 charges the cells to 4,1 volt. Max voltage for lithium is considered to be 4,2 volts. I don't think BMW alters the voltage limits for the battery as it ages. But I don't know for sure, and I haven't tested it myself. Some rapid chargers show me the battery voltage, so I could actually try it. I can read out the max. capacity for the battery in the menus of the car though. It's reduced over time. I haven't checked it for a long time now.

I´m also a bit skeptical about that, but looks like he knows what he´s talking about, that´s the reason I asked for confirmation

[Andres125sx]

True but 2,500+ k's of road trip driving per year is still getting close to 20% of our average yearly total of 15,000 k's driven for that vehicle.

Yes but not sure what you mean with this. It´s 20% of total mileage but only for those who made those long trips, not the real average.

It´s also showing how many mileage you´d save to your own car, increasing its lifespan, reducing maintenance costs, and making this combination more sensible. It would also make your own car choice more appropiate to the daily use it will do 80% of the time, so it´s all advantages

I'm merely pointing out that in Australia and the USA this is very common use case for vehicles - we will happily drive 200kms and back for a weekend away. From conversations with our UK/EU based family, it's my understanding this is not normal behavior there.

Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% pro-BEV's - I'm merely pointing out that very fast charging infrastructure (eg 15-30 mins for a full charge) is absolutely key to allow full mainstream takeup of BEV's in Australia and America. That and price parity with ICE cars (TCO, not sticker price).

Personally I intensely dislike PHEV's, they are a very poor compromise and as a total package, very inefficient use of resources. The complexity means you get none of the low servicing costs of BEV's, in fact you have higher servicing costs than conventional ICE vehicles, and their packaging is compromised by having dual power sources.

Yes that´s true, but otoh they also offer same range to ICEs with the ease of fast refuelling, plus the bonus of low pollution/consumption in urban areas when ICEs are less efficient. They´re a compromise, wich is not bad while EVs batteries make the necessary step forward to finally debunk ICEs

[Brake Horse Power]

True but 2,500+ k's of road trip driving per year is still getting close to 20% of our average yearly total of 15,000 k's driven for that vehicle.

Yes but not sure what you mean with this. It´s 20% of total mileage but only for those who made those long trips, not the real average.

It´s also showing how many mileage you´d save to your own car, increasing its lifespan, reducing maintenance costs, and making this combination more sensible. It would also make your own car choice more appropiate to the daily use it will do 80% of the time, so it´s all advantages

I'm merely pointing out that in Australia and the USA this is very common use case for vehicles - we will happily drive 200kms and back for a weekend away. From conversations with our UK/EU based family, it's my understanding this is not normal behavior there.

Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% pro-BEV's - I'm merely pointing out that very fast charging infrastructure (eg 15-30 mins for a full charge) is absolutely key to allow full mainstream takeup of BEV's in Australia and America. That and price parity with ICE cars (TCO, not sticker price).

Personally I intensely dislike PHEV's, they are a very poor compromise and as a total package, very inefficient use of resources. The complexity means you get none of the low servicing costs of BEV's, in fact you have higher servicing costs than conventional ICE vehicles, and their packaging is compromised by having dual power sources.

200 km is a piece of cake for a BEV. Charge on the destiny.

The distances in Australia are far larger than Europe, but besides that isn't this the most easy country to electrify? There is so much land, so little ammount of people. And so much sun (renewable energy). If BEV range is a problem go hydrogen. Put a station each 150 km and off you go

[strad]

If BEV range is a problem go hydrogen. Put a station each 150 km and off you go

You act as though John Q Public has any control over that.

[Brake Horse Power]

You can vote to start with

[djos]

Yes but not sure what you mean with this. It´s 20% of total mileage but only for those who made those long trips, not the real average.

It´s also showing how many mileage you´d save to your own car, increasing its lifespan, reducing maintenance costs, and making this combination more sensible. It would also make your own car choice more appropiate to the daily use it will do 80% of the time, so it´s all advantages

I'm merely pointing out that in Australia and the USA this is very common use case for vehicles - we will happily drive 200kms and back for a weekend away. From conversations with our UK/EU based family, it's my understanding this is not normal behavior there.

Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% pro-BEV's - I'm merely pointing out that very fast charging infrastructure (eg 15-30 mins for a full charge) is absolutely key to allow full mainstream takeup of BEV's in Australia and America. That and price parity with ICE cars (TCO, not sticker price).

Personally I intensely dislike PHEV's, they are a very poor compromise and as a total package, very inefficient use of resources. The complexity means you get none of the low servicing costs of BEV's, in fact you have higher servicing costs than conventional ICE vehicles, and their packaging is compromised by having dual power sources.

200 km is a piece of cake for a BEV. Charge on the destiny.

The distances in Australia are far larger than Europe, but besides that isn't this the most easy country to electrify? There is so much land, so little ammount of people. And so much sun (renewable energy). If BEV range is a problem go hydrogen. Put a station each 150 km and off you go

Oh I totally agree - I was just adding additional data to my "road trip culture" post from earlier. The main reason we dont have the infra is a lack of gov support (bunch of dinosaurs in power who hate new technology and love coal).

Although on the hydrogen option, tbh this tech is not going to be viable for passenger cars for decades, if ever. Maybe it'll be suitable for long haul trucks but the big problem with it is the overall efficiency of the end to end "system" is poor no matter which way you build it. This means Hydrogen will be vastly more expensive for the end-user. BEV's won the war before hydrogen even got to the battlefield.

The only reason Hydrogen even gets discussed is due to the fossil fuel companies desperately looking for a replacement for dead tree juice.