Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[Wynters]

As part of the question of viability for electric vehicles, surely we need to consider when the support network will be in place to provide them with their 'fuel'?

Does any country have sufficient electricity-generating capacity (and the corresponding increase in grid support) coming on line in the next few years to replace the mtoes that petrol currently provides?

E.g. If petrol use in a country is currently equivalent to (for example) 70GWh of power, which countries already have plans in place to increase their energy production by 70Gwh (or whatever would match 70/power efficiency of the vehicle fleet)?

Some very rough calculations for mtoe currently in use for its transport fleet suggest that my country would need to more than double its entire electricity generating capacity or, if we wanted to power the vehicle fleet purely with green technology (including nuclear), we'd need to quadruple that Green electricity-generating capacity. There's no evidence that's going to start happening in the near future.

[strad]

As part of the question of viability for electric vehicles, surely we need to consider when the support network will be in place to provide them with their 'fuel'?

Yes that has been part of the drawbacks in the U.S.. Very little in the way of recharging stations along the way from say Seattle to L.A..
And since the in the summer L.A. can't supply enough electricity to keep up with demand as it is it would seem the day when there is plenty of clean electricity is still years away.

[Ferry]

Does any country have sufficient electricity-generating capacity (and the corresponding increase in grid support) coming on line in the next few years to replace the mtoes that petrol currently provides?

In Norway, with approx. 2.5000.000 passenger cars, full electrification will increase the demand for electric energy by 5-7%. AFAIK more than that is planned for the coming years. So no big deal for our power grid. Norway has close to 100% hydro power. Being a net exporter of electricity you could even claim hydro power to be more than 100%.
Lots of data here: https://www.statnett.no/en/for-stakehol ... power-flow for those interested.

I've been driving an EV for 6 years now. A lot has happened in those years. Many more models to choose from, much better infrastructure. Everyone wants them now, as seen in the market share. I believe the same will happen soon in other countries. It's fun to see and hear Dave Jones from the Eevblog talking about his experience so far. A little deja vu. Lack of noise, vibration, smell etc.

60% markets share for EVs in Norway September 2020:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/01/se ... are-of-82/
https://insideevs.com/news/446821/vw-id ... mber-2020/

More videos from Eevblog:

[Billzilla]

Here in Aus there are no BEV Subsidies so here are some true examples of what the cars really cost (base models) in AUD inc taxes and on-road costs:

Hyundai Ionic Electric $46,000 AUD
Nissan leaf $51,000 AUD
Tesla Model 3 $78,000 AUD

compared to the following cars

Lexus CT $43,000
Lexus IS $62,000

So yeah, BEV's are expensive still (not including TCO). I could also buy a fully loaded hot hatch like the Hyundai i30N for a little less money than the Ionic BEV.

and then there are cars like my 2019 Kia Rio GT-Line, it's a bit smaller than the Leaf but cost $24,000 on the road.

But don't forget that a large chunk of that money you have to hand over is due to the Luxury Car Import Duty/Tax that we have to pay, to protect our local car industry ... oh, wait ....

[djos]

LCT is on only cars above $65k I thought?

But yeah, what car industry!

[FW17]

If people start spending more on cars, other expensive items such as housing will come down in prices.

[Andres125sx]

As part of the question of viability for electric vehicles, surely we need to consider when the support network will be in place to provide them with their 'fuel'?

Does any country have sufficient electricity-generating capacity (and the corresponding increase in grid support) coming on line in the next few years to replace the mtoes that petrol currently provides?

E.g. If petrol use in a country is currently equivalent to (for example) 700 TWh of power, which countries already have plans in place to increase their energy production by 700Twh (or whatever would match 700/power efficiency of the vehicle fleet)?

Some very rough calculations for mtoe currently in use for its transport fleet suggest that my country would need to more than double its entire electricity generating capacity or, if we wanted to power the vehicle fleet purely with green technology (including nuclear), we'd need to quadruple that Green electricity-generating capacity. There's no evidence that's going to start happening in the near future.

True, there´s no evidence that´s going to start happening in the near future... because that started happening years ago

Overall, solar power capacity grew >10x over from 2009 to 2015, and >100x over from 2002 to 2015.


Wind power has been quadrupled in less than a decade

[Phil]

And yet, compared to energy generated through fossil fuels, it’s still peanuts.

[Andres125sx]

And yet, compared to energy generated through fossil fuels, it’s still peanuts.

Only because our society relies way too much on fossil fuels so the numbers are astronomical, and unsustainable

The key point here is the change for sustainable energy started years ago despite some people claiming it´s not possible. We can discuss if it´s possible or not, but the fact is it started years ago

Not saying it´s real today or it will be next year, but we´re talking about a HUGE change wich affects the whole planet and society, so we can´t expect it will happen in 5-10 years, a change of this scale will always take much longer obviously

But like it or not, believe it or not, hate it or not, it´s already happening. Thankfully!!

[Scorpaguy]

Petroleum hydrocarbons have a bright and integral place in our future...it just will not be in energy production (rather the plastics/synthetics industries). Sustainables will be harnessed for our mundane/transient needs for such. Like it or not, the world's population will require us to continue to extract every resource this rock has.

[Greg Locock]

Renewables aren't even keeping up with the growth in energy demand never mind 'taking over'. perhaps by 2050 fossil fuel use will start to drop

[hollus]

That's a model that shows more or less linear growth for renewables from 2020 onwards because someone decided that the model would show linear growth from 2020 onwards.
If (HUGE IF!) the growth is exponential that type of several-old increase per decade would see it dominate somewhere in the 2030s.
The truth will probably lie somewhere in the middle. Will you meet me in the middle ... Will you love me just a little...

[Wynters]

It's great that we're seeing a greater movement towards cleaner production. I do have some fears about Jevon's paradox but at least the direction of travel is positive. It will also be interesting to see whether people embrace nuclear as the impact of climate change gets more obvious.

[DChemTech]

And yet, compared to energy generated through fossil fuels, it’s still peanuts.

Only because our society relies way too much on fossil fuels so the numbers are astronomical, and unsustainable

The key point here is the change for sustainable energy started years ago despite some people claiming it´s not possible. We can discuss if it´s possible or not, but the fact is it started years ago

Not saying it´s real today or it will be next year, but we´re talking about a HUGE change wich affects the whole planet and society, so we can´t expect it will happen in 5-10 years, a change of this scale will always take much longer obviously

But like it or not, believe it or not, hate it or not, it´s already happening. Thankfully!!

Fully agree. Unfortunately, exponential growth is hard to grasp for people (see Covid, too). But things are well on their way, and that without fair pricing, mind you. While some people complain renewables are not viable without subsidy, there are still various tax breaks and other forms of implicit subsidy for fossil fuels. Still, some forms of renewable energy are already competitive, subsidy-free. And that's not even going into inclusion of external (health- and climate-change) related costs in the fossil fuel price yet - if we would start doing so, it's really over and out for fossils.

[Wynters]

And yet, compared to energy generated through fossil fuels, it’s still peanuts.

Only because our society relies way too much on fossil fuels so the numbers are astronomical, and unsustainable

The key point here is the change for sustainable energy started years ago despite some people claiming it´s not possible. We can discuss if it´s possible or not, but the fact is it started years ago

Not saying it´s real today or it will be next year, but we´re talking about a HUGE change wich affects the whole planet and society, so we can´t expect it will happen in 5-10 years, a change of this scale will always take much longer obviously

But like it or not, believe it or not, hate it or not, it´s already happening. Thankfully!!

Fully agree. Unfortunately, exponential growth is hard to grasp for people (see Covid, too). But things are well on their way, and that without fair pricing, mind you. While some people complain renewables are not viable without subsidy, there are still various tax breaks and other forms of implicit subsidy for fossil fuels. Still, some forms of renewable energy are already competitive, subsidy-free. And that's not even going into inclusion of external (health- and climate-change) related costs in the fossil fuel price yet - if we would start doing so, it's really over and out for fossils.

Jevon's paradox suggests otherwise, as does the projection that the Saudis can pump oil at $10 a barrel and still come out with a profit. If nothing else, developing countries seem to have two options:-
1) Continue with their current energy trajectory, with it being even cheaper as the pressure of renewables forces fossil fuel prices down.
2) Completely revamp their infrastructure, writing off most of the money invested so far, to shift to a low carbon model.

The first of those options seems pretty attractive. If that's the case, then there needs to be incentives to make the second option the better option. Those incentives will likely have to come from developed nations which will effectively drive up the price of renewables. Hydrogen rather than solar/wind/water might get around that, as it's more efficient to transport although there are big issues around energy security and the current drive seems to be towards solar/wind/water.

It really feels like we missed the boat back in the '70s.