2021 Pecking order prediction

[Bandit1216]

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I just checked the bookies, and although Hamilton is the favourite for the WDC, interestingly Verstappen is the favourite for Bahrain.

I guess the bookies expect Mercedes to outdevelop Red Bull? idk

Bookies adjust odds on depending on how people bet

If there is suddenly a rush of people betting on Max to whim Bahrain then the odds will decrease

A lot of people don't realise this - bookies run a book and that gives odds based on where money is going. They don't predict what they think will be the outcome.

If something is popular then the odds shorten e.g. go from 5/1 to 3/1. This isn't because that outcome is more likely, it's because that outcome will cost them a lot of money if lots of people have bet on the longer odds. All a bookie does is publicly show where other people are betting their money. Outcomes with lots of bets have worse odds in order to protect the bookie from bankruptcy. Outcomes where no one is betting have long odds because if that outcome occurs, it won't cost the bookie too much to pay out.

Because people think that short odds are an indicator of likelihood, they bet on those odds more. This is how "the favourite" comes about. It's the favourite of the betters, not the bookies.

Those in the know bet early based on form etc., and bookies will also have an idea ahead of time where they think money will go. Bookies know that Hamilton will be considered to be the most likely winner of the title and so they start with odds set accordingly. After testing, those odds will change because people will have seen a poor performance from the Mercedes team and assume that Red Bull will dominate and therefore they will bet on Max. As more bets come in, the odds will shorten. Conversely, the odds on Hamilton will lengthen slightly. So initial odds are set based on past form - be that F1 or race horses - and then change as people place bets.

If every F1 fan went out and put £10 (or equivalent) on Tsunoda winning the title this year, his odds would shorten massively because the bookies could not afford to pay out to everyone at odds of 250/1 (just checked Sky Bet and that's his odds at this moment). Interestingly, Russell has better odds (100/1) than Alonso (150/1). Neither are very likely to win the title but obviously more people are putting money on Russell, hence his shorter odds.

Or they think Russel has a better odd then Alonso should Lewis break a leg or something. Russel might do an Irvine-almost99-er in that case. (I don't wish for that to happen)

[Just_a_fan]

Or they think Russel has a better odd then Alonso should Lewis break a leg or something. Russel might do an Irvine-almost99-er in that case. (I don't wish for that to happen)

Or Russell simply has more fans that bet than Alonso does.

Anyone expecting Russell to win the title would have to expect him to get in the Mercedes in the first two or three races, and for the car to be sorted and made in to the equivalent of the W11 in terms of pace etc. Anything other than that and the opposition would be too far ahead on points. E.g. Max wins the first three races with Russell not scoring. Then Russell gets the Merc. He's already 75 points behind and would need a lot of luck to win from there.

That's a fairly slim margin to bet on, but then there people that bet on all sorts of odd things.

[Schuttelberg]

Mercedes
Red Bul
Ferrari
McLaren
Alpine
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Aston Martin
Williams
Haas

[Bandit1216]

Or they think Russel has a better odd then Alonso should Lewis break a leg or something. Russel might do an Irvine-almost99-er in that case. (I don't wish for that to happen)

Or Russell simply has more fans that bet than Alonso does.

Anyone expecting Russell to win the title would have to expect him to get in the Mercedes in the first two or three races, and for the car to be sorted and made in to the equivalent of the W11 in terms of pace etc. Anything other than that and the opposition would be too far ahead on points. E.g. Max wins the first three races with Russell not scoring. Then Russell gets the Merc. He's already 75 points behind and would need a lot of luck to win from there.

That's a fairly slim margin to bet on, but then there people that bet on all sorts of odd things.

Not to mention Bottas would kill himself should that happen. Or would Bottas be allowed to bet on Russel?

[search]

those odds on Russell initially were even lower (around ~18-1) before Hamilton signed his new deal - and the fact that he could potentially still take the Mercedes seat in case of injury or so, probably still has some kind of influence. It's minimal of course, but for Alonso it's zero

[Herr_Koos]

Mercedes
Red Bul
Ferrari
McLaren
Alpine
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Aston Martin
Williams
Haas

That's bold. Alfa Romeo faster than Aston? I also don't think Ferrari are just going to jump back into the top 3.

[Blackout]

1-Footwork Yamaha
2-Stefan GP Toyota
3-Sauber Ferrari BMW
4-Lotus F1 team Mecachrome
5-Team Lotus Cosworth
6-Andrea Moda Honda
7-Super Aguri Honda
8-Lotus Racing Lotus
9-
10-Rich Energy High performance HorseManurePowertrainTechnologies

[maguetox]

Initial pecking order:
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Mclaren
4. Ferrari
5. Alpine
6. Aston Martin
7. Alpha Tauri
8. Alfa Romeo
9. Williams
10. Hass.

Some comments:
Mercedes is going to be ahead of RBR but not by much, even Verstappen could be ahead of Bottas from day one.
Mclaren is going to be a lonely third, maybe mixing with Sergio Perez in the initial races.
Ferrari will be the clear forth and could be right there mixed with Mclaren in some races.
Alpine, Aston Martin and Alpha Tauri is where the real fight will be, changing positions depending of the type circuit and the mistakes the team make strategy wise.
Alfa Romeo is going to be close to the 3 in front of my list, and if the Ferrari PU gained enough HP could be in front of some teams in some high speed circuits.

[Vasconia]

Mercedes
Red Bul
Ferrari
McLaren
Alpine
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Aston Martin
Williams
Haas

That's bold. Alfa Romeo faster than Aston? I also don't think Ferrari are just going to jump back into the top 3.

We all think that AF is fast but in fact they haven´t shown any real indication of it.

[Sieper]

Mercedes/redbull
Mclaren
Ferrari
Alpine
AlphaTauri
Aston Martin
Alfaromeo
Williams
Haas

Just a guess and based o my hopes for RedBull. Merc could be ahead as they were but I think redbull will then still be able to claim p2. Unless Merc power is decisive and then mclaren and Aston Martin will move up the ranks.

[Wouter]

Mercedes/redbull
Mclaren
Ferrari
Alpine
AlphaTauri
Aston Martin
Alfaromeo
Williams
Haas

Just a guess and based o my hopes for RedBull. Merc could be ahead as they were but I think redbull will then still be able to claim p2. Unless Merc power is decisive and then mclaren and Aston Martin will move up the ranks.

Littlebit different
Red Bull Racing Honda
Mercedes
Mclaren
AlphaTauri Honda
Alpine/Aston Martin/Alfa Romeo/Ferrari ... all very close
Williams
Haas

I think Ferrari will have a much better engine, so good on the straights, but the car isn't good in the corners.
When Aston Martin will solve there problems, I put them on 5th place.

[Herr_Koos]

Mercedes
Red Bul
Ferrari
McLaren
Alpine
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Aston Martin
Williams
Haas

That's bold. Alfa Romeo faster than Aston? I also don't think Ferrari are just going to jump back into the top 3.

We all think that AF is fast but in fact they haven´t shown any real indication of it.

AF? As in Alfa?

Most opinion pieces I read seem to think that Alfa's quick times were something of a glory run. Again, we're speculating here.

[Blackout]

Alpha Tauri too tends to do many 'glory runs'...
AT/STR is a good team that builds solid cars and often introduces cool aero innovations. They're even better since they started using more RB parts, and the Honda will certainly improve well. that's why we one must beware of them.... but it's also a team that tends to run with lower fuel loads than others, and to shine during the winters and in FP1 and FP2... every year since 2015 at least, many see them in the top 5....
And now we hear that Tsunoda was opening his DRS 200 meters earlier than the others...

[Sieper]

In Yuki’s case that is defendable. In that way he can approach the corners at very high speed and learn the limits of a current F1 car better.

And it helps for his PR as well

[godlameroso]

I put the RB16B current package, on the level of the W11 final spec. The new Mercedes needs to be as fast as the old one if they are to be contenders, if not faster. Possibly they are that in race pace, but perhaps they need to dial in the quali pace.

The inertia of a heavy fuel load can mask a car's instabilities to the point that they don't affect race pace too much, but they will affect qualifying if the balance isn't spot on. A driver just won't have the confidence, and qualifying will be much more important due to the field closing up. It won't be a case of the lead car lapping the field with ease.