Silly Season 2020/2021 (starting with silliness in 2019)

[Jolle]

Don’t assume and keep following the research.

I'm assuming nothing. I'm asking questions of a forum member known to us to be a medical professional.

Having read around the subject, it seems that SARS-CoV2 is the seventh virus of its type to jump to humans. Four of these viruses cause a small proportion of colds in people (about 15% of colds IIRC). At least one of these is now thought to have been the virus that caused the "Russian flu" in the late 1800s. The genes of the virus have been tracked back and the emergence in humans coincides with that pandemic. The virus came to humans from cows, it seems.

We may be worried now, but take heart from the suggestion that the virus that causes us a sniffle today, killed millions 150 years ago. Humans will get over SARS-CoV2 and develop immunity. The question is only: at what cost?

I know. And... what’s next...

I’ve read a lot of “at what costs” (not saying you do, you seem to be very well informed), in this pandemic, the choice was lockdown to slow the virus down so the ICU’s had enough room for people to, well.. die there or the alternative would have been people suffocating in their owns homes and on the streets. Just imagine.... so. It wasn’t really a choice a few months ago. Now we could build 10x bigger ICU wards to cope with the next SARS? Brave politician who will suggest it.

[raymondu999]

While this is a very pertinent and crucial topic in current times, perhaps we could move these posts to the covid thread?

[adrianjordan]

I see the danger of the second wave coming from people 'moving in different circles' as much as anything else.
Where I live, we have had a low number comparative to cities, but we are a holiday town and population easily quadruples on a nice weekend, and most of the influx is from cities where the numbers have been high.
The 'Herd immunity' will have kicked in in some areas and not in others. Add this to the rise in population density and mixing circles and it looks to be a big risk.

There is still no firm evidence for herd immunity. I have had the antibody test and tested positive (was pretty sure I would) but I'm still assuming that I could catch it again, or be a carrier without developing symptoms.

Why should immunity be different for SAR-CoV2 than for, say, measles or any other disease? The virus doesn't appear to be changing rapidly so antibodies ought to be able to pick it up. Or is there a concern that it might behave like seasonal flu and mutate enough to make antibodies "time limited"? If we need an annual vaccine for SARS-CoV2, then we're going to have to accept lots of people dying over the next few years. We won't be able to do a lockdown every year.

Well, it's a Corona Virus and we don't get lasting immunity for the Common Cold, which is also caused by a Corona Virus.

If they manage to develop a vaccine then it will be the first successful vaccine for a Corona Virus in history.

The question isn't whether there will be any immunity, it will be how much and for how long?

It is likely that Covid-19 will mutate, in fact there have already been some suggestions that it has done so and a less harmful strain is being seen in some places. We can only hope those are more than just wishful thinking.

[Big Tea]

Yeah, there will almost certainly be a second wave, especially with all these protests going on and thousands of people cramming themselves in to small areas with no respect for social distancing.

I see the danger of the second wave coming from people 'moving in different circles' as much as anything else.
Where I live, we have had a low number comparative to cities, but we are a holiday town and population easily quadruples on a nice weekend, and most of the influx is from cities where the numbers have been high.
The 'Herd immunity' will have kicked in in some areas and not in others. Add this to the rise in population density and mixing circles and it looks to be a big risk.

There is still no firm evidence for herd immunity. I have had the antibody test and tested positive (was pretty sure I would) but I'm still assuming that I could catch it again, or be a carrier without developing symptoms.

I know it is an unproven question, and, as you, I will not be betting my life on it.
Looking at it logically though, if your ownantibodies do not shield you, how does ( or maybe would) a serum that injects other peoples antibodies work?

From the Guardian, link below, most 'experts' if there are any seem to think it is unlikley to re-infect, which is not to say not get infected with a different strain. Take no chances anyway seems the best option


Dr Joshua Schiffer, an expert in infectious diseases at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in the US, added that any signs of reinfection would require detailed scrutiny.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -19-so-far

“I have yet to see a definitive case of reinfection reported in the scientific literature [to date]. To truly prove reinfection, and discriminate from prolonged viral shedding related to the first infection, would require sequencing of both the first and second viruses and demonstration that the two viruses are genetically different,” he said, adding it will also be important to look at symptoms and how long reinfection lasts.

“It is also important to recognise that documentation of one or a handful of reinfections does not prove that this is a common, epidemiologically important event.”

[Big Tea]

There is still no firm evidence for herd immunity. I have had the antibody test and tested positive (was pretty sure I would) but I'm still assuming that I could catch it again, or be a carrier without developing symptoms.

Why should immunity be different for SAR-CoV2 than for, say, measles or any other disease? The virus doesn't appear to be changing rapidly so antibodies ought to be able to pick it up. Or is there a concern that it might behave like seasonal flu and mutate enough to make antibodies "time limited"? If we need an annual vaccine for SARS-CoV2, then we're going to have to accept lots of people dying over the next few years. We won't be able to do a lockdown every year.

Well, it's a Corona Virus and we don't get lasting immunity for the Common Cold, which is also caused by a Corona Virus.

If they manage to develop a vaccine then it will be the first successful vaccine for a Corona Virus in history.

The question isn't whether there will be any immunity, it will be how much and for how long?

It is likely that Covid-19 will mutate, in fact there have already been some suggestions that it has done so and a less harmful strain is being seen in some places. We can only hope those are more than just wishful thinking.

This would seem to favour 'natural selection' as if the host dies or is too ill to 'pass it about' the virus does not reproduce efficiently. It is not 'out to kill you', it is out to reproduce, like all life.
Some have suspected from the beginning that it is with us for ever now, but getting less deadly as it establishes itself.

There is also the very small chance that as it competes with other sicknesses it will replace them entirely.
Still, I am concerned as much about now as then

[adrianjordan]

Why should immunity be different for SAR-CoV2 than for, say, measles or any other disease? The virus doesn't appear to be changing rapidly so antibodies ought to be able to pick it up. Or is there a concern that it might behave like seasonal flu and mutate enough to make antibodies "time limited"? If we need an annual vaccine for SARS-CoV2, then we're going to have to accept lots of people dying over the next few years. We won't be able to do a lockdown every year.

Well, it's a Corona Virus and we don't get lasting immunity for the Common Cold, which is also caused by a Corona Virus.

If they manage to develop a vaccine then it will be the first successful vaccine for a Corona Virus in history.

The question isn't whether there will be any immunity, it will be how much and for how long?

It is likely that Covid-19 will mutate, in fact there have already been some suggestions that it has done so and a less harmful strain is being seen in some places. We can only hope those are more than just wishful thinking.

This would seem to favour 'natural selection' as if the host dies or is too ill to 'pass it about' the virus does not reproduce efficiently. It is not 'out to kill you', it is out to reproduce, like all life.
Some have suspected from the beginning that it is with us for ever now, but getting less deadly as it establishes itself.

There is also the very small chance that as it competes with other sicknesses it will replace them entirely.
Still, I am concerned as much about now as then

Absolutely!! This is why we haven't had a global pandemic of SARS, MERS or Ebola. They kill their hosts too quickly for the virus to really spread very far and so it is easy to contain.

Covid-19 is pretty much an almost perfect virus. It is contagious before the host develops symptoms and the vast majority of hosts survive.

[adrianjordan]

Anyway, we're off topic.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Seb is heading for retirement from F1. Either that or a sabbatical.

[NathanOlder]

or a Sebbatical

I think he will retire unless he gets in at Mercedes, which looks very unlikely after Bottas' comments recently.

[raymondu999]

or a Sebbatical

I think he will retire unless he gets in at Mercedes, which looks very unlikely after Bottas' comments recently.

Tbh I think his options were only ever going to be McLaren, Aston Martin or Merc. If those 3 doors close for him I reckon he will take a gap year.

[Big Tea]

Anyway, we're off topic.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Seb is heading for retirement from F1. Either that or a sabbatical.

I would not be shocked to see him in another Mercedes engined car for a year. I know all are contracted, but when your rich uncle engine supplier wants a favour, they usually get it

[Restomaniac]

Did Natalie Pinkham let the cat out of the bag when she mentioned Russell to Mercedes last night during the vertical GP coverage?

They were talking about her interview with Russell and she slipped in ‘I’d put £10 on George being in a Mercedes’ only to quickly add ‘Opps I don’t think I should say that’ or at least words to that effect!

[NathanOlder]

If Natalie Pinkham knows already, then a lot of people must know, so surely it would be out in the public by now. She was probably saying the Oopps bit as its not nice for Valterri that people are talking about him being replaced before its even happened.

Hopefully George gets his hands on the Mercedes in 2021 though.

[Restomaniac]

If Natalie Pinkham knows already, then a lot of people must know, so surely it would be out in the public by now. She was probably saying the Oopps bit as its not nice for Valterri that people are talking about him being replaced before its even happened.

Hopefully George gets his hands on the Mercedes in 2021 though.

Maybe so but it makes you think something’s in the offing.

[Jolle]

As I remember, Russell had a three year deal at Williams plus a Mercedes Junior, so it would make more sense is he's going. to replace Bottas in 2022. But.... with the big contracts all ending at. 2021, Bottas could be in trouble if he waits to be replaced.

It could be of course that a team like Renault is looking at someone like Bottas to replace Ricciardo for 2021, which will give Russell the opportunity a year early. (Which also will close the door for Vettel & Alonso at any of the works seats)

[ESPImperium]

As ive said, im thinking this will be the grid for 2021:
Bottas to Renault (Three year deal)
Russell to Mercedes (Three Year Deal)
Hamilton to Aston Martin (Two Year Deal) - Toto to join as Team principle
Alonso to Mercedes (Two year deal)
Vettel back to Red Bull (Two year deal)

Leaving the grid as follows:
Mercededs AMG: 14) Alonso / 63) Russell
Red Bull-Honda: 33) Verstappen / 5) Vettel
Scuderia Ferrari: 16) Le Clerc / 55) Sainz
McLaren-Mercedes: 3) Riccardo / 4) Norris
Aston Martin-Mercedes: 44) Hamilton / 11) Perez
Renault Sport F1: 77) Bottas / 31) Ocon
Alfa Romeo-Ferrari: 99) Giovinazzi / 32 or 19) Schumacher [32 or 19 as they were his dads first numbers in F1]
Alfa Tauri-Honda: 23) Albon / 10) Gasly
Haas-Ferrari 20) Magnussen / 94) Wehirlien
Williams-Mercedes: 6) Latifi / 27) Hulkenberg