Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

[Phail]

Unless Alonso can put in a performance like what he did in Monza in every remaining race, I honestly don't see him as a Championship contender. That is unless something extraordinary happens to his rivals above him of course.

[WhiteBlue]

Unless Alonso can put in a performance like what he did in Monza in every remaining race, I honestly don't see him as a Championship contender. That is unless something extraordinary happens to his rivals above him of course.

I agree. Ferrari is just too erratic with their performance this season as the standardized car odds show. Alonso has unconditional team order on his side now but I - like the betting money - doubt that will be enough to propel him to the top.

[horse]

After a discussion with a friend, we decided a good target points tally for the WDC is about 250 points. So at the Alonso/Button/Vettel position, that's 3 wins out of 5 or 5 2nd places. Not impossible but a big ask, and probably Vettel is the most likely to achieve the 3 wins from those 3 drivers.

For Hamilton and Webber, two wins and a second would do, or 5 3rd places should be plenty. Basically, if either can consistently finish on the podium, then the WDC should be theirs. Obviously, they need to keep an eye on each other, but my point is that they need take far fewer risks than the group behind them.

[WhiteBlue]

Good point. Undoubtedly Mark Webber's consistency in avoiding mistakes and sitting in the fastest car has propelled him to the top for the time being. This is regardless of the fact that he isn't the fastest driver. If he keeps up that strategy and avoids DNFs he is most likely to win the title. One more DNF or finish out of the double points can ruin the WDC race for every one of the five contenders.

[Phail]

Good point. Undoubtedly Mark Webber's consistency in avoiding mistakes and sitting in the fastest car has propelled him to the top for the time being. This is regardless of the fact that he isn't the fastest driver. If he keeps up that strategy and avoids DNFs he is most likely to win the title. One more DNF or finish out of the double points can ruin the WDC race for every one of the five contenders.

The Red Bull RB6 are fast but fragile, a retirement from Webber & a win for Lewis will almost certainly heavily damage his chance of becoming Champion, Vettel on the other hand is a long shot for the title, his last few races have been erratic & if he does another Belgium GP at Singapore he can kiss the title Buh-bye

[WhiteBlue]

Vettel has the betting money on his side to win the next race. I think he will concentrate very hard to make that happen and I will keep my fingers crossed. I hope for him to take 7 or 10 points out of Webber's lead next week.

If that happens I expect him to displace Hamilton from P2 in the odds and pull close to equal with Webber at 2.5.

[Phail]

Not an easy job for Vettel, Webber is not mistake-prone and Vettel will have to start by qualifying higher than Webber (and Lewis). A mistake-free race and he is well on his way to trimming down Webber's championship lead.

[WhiteBlue]

Getting poles over Webber wasn't the problem for Vettel this years when his car was all ok, wasn't it?

[raymondu999]

Webber? non mistake prone? Before this season your comment would have been the laughingstock of the century. Vettel is quite fast in Singapore though. 4th despite a drivethrough, which was going to be 2nd before the drivethrough. Could've been on pole save for Barrichello greeting the wall. I'm sure WB agrees

Mind you, he's quite fast in Suzuka too. Pole to flag last year.

[PlatinumZealot]

I think vettel will surely win suzuka if the number 2 mclaren is not up to scratch by then.

[raymondu999]

Why did you leave the Number 1 McLaren?

[mike]

well statistically speaking....
since the V8 era 2006
every driver that won the 1st race or in Melbourne has become the world champion
so either Alonso or Button will be WDC, and since no briton has defended WDC
Alonso will be this year's champ, fact is 5 horse race 4 of them have team mates that takes points off them

[raymondu999]

Statistically speaking, that is Doesn't that apply to those who have either had pole in the first race/melbourne too?

[mike]

not really in 2006 alonso didnt get pole in the 1st race or melbourne

[raymondu999]

Yup. Missed that sorry. Btw, since the aero formula changed with the low front wing and the high rear wing, 100% of all drivers who've been on pole in Melbourne, and won Malaysia has won the championship.

Funny how taking a stat out of context (especially if it's something that only has happened once) bloats things so comically, no?