2014/15 Silly Season

[Phil]

The thing is; I'm just struggling to be that impressed by Bottas. And that has very much to do with his performance against Massa. Now, Massa might be driving stronger and more freely in the Williams compared to when he was slaughtered by Alonso at Ferrari (due to politics, Alonso-love, whatever)... what I can say with certainty however is that Dan proved to be bloddy quick against Vettel at RedBull in what was perhaps the 2nd or 3rd best car on the grid in 2014. And something else; the moves Dan pulled, not once but multiple times, not only against other drivers but against his team-mate were stunning. The kid has it IMO.

The question that will be in Ferrari's mind is how good is Vettel really? He beat Webber 4 times in a row, and in a car that had a less stable rear and restrained EBD effect, Webber was right there with him. We also know Alonso is clearly better than Kimi. Perhaps Alonso just doesn't struggle as much in a car that doesn't perform well, while Kimi needs a car catered more towards his liking, but Vettel, if we take 2014 as a reference, perhaps isn't that far off that either. So looking at the stats so far, both Alonso and Vettel are performing better than Kimi, but Ricciardo beat Vettel in 2014. Of course, different cars, different characteristics, so there's no guarantee the story would unfold the same again if we were to match them up. And I do think Vettel is extremely quick in the right car and his qualifying performance is staggering.

Back to Bottas; I'm not sure he is doing enough against Massa to warrant a Ferrari seat. Then again, neither was Kimi IMO. Yes, he was very impressive in the Lotus, and he seemed like a safe bet to replace Massa, but I don't think he is up there anymore. If I had a choice, I'd still go for Dan.

Who knows; Maybe Ferrari will come out big if they manage to get their car on the same level as Mercedes. Perhaps Vettel will be a 5 times world champion. Or maybe, they'll just be that close again while missing out so narrowly that Vettel can join Alonso in writing books about it.

[jato]

You aren't the only one that isn't convinced by Bottas. I'm not myself, he reminds me of Hulk in many ways. Every now and then he might drive a brilliant race or have a brilliant qualifying session but doesn't do it on a consistent basis. Last years points gap vs. Massa wasn't representative of the closeness between the two especially in the 2nd half of the season where Massa had a relatively good run against Bottas. Big points like Canada were thrown away by Massa or races like Australia were out of his control. You look at races like Australia where IMO Bottas should have easily made the podium had he not put it into the wall given the pace the Williams had or all the the races where Bottas finished on the podium, he did exactly what was required of the car - which was up to 7 tenths quicker than the RB on some occasions in qualifying - which really should be easy podium placings given the pace of the car.

It makes me wonder where the hype comes from? His management in Wolff and Hakkinen are shouting from the rooftops of how great Bottas is because they have something to gain from it and given that Wolff is a TP, the perception is that his opinion holds more weight. Look at the recent TP ratings, Wolff rated Bottas better than both Vettel and Alonso, where is the logic in that? I would like Bottas to be against another driver other than Massa. I don't consider Massa a great yardstick and I still don't think Massa should have ever been drafted into Ferrari in the first place. His manager (Jean Todt's son) was all the reason he managed to score that drive, spinning by himself 5 times @ a wet Silverstone in the Sauber while every other driver managed fine said it all.

Outside of Bottas, who is there really though when you think about it, probably why he is being talked up.

Hulk - had his chance, similar to Bottas. Guiterrez flattered him and now Perez has finding him out a bit.
Perez - had his chance and dumped by McLaren, has attitude problems apparently
Verstappen and Sainz - too early for them for such a jump plus they are part of the RB program
Grosjean - was impressive for some part when Lotus was competitive but you look where Kimi is
Maldo - the less said the better
Kvyat - hasn't started well vs. DR and if he was on the radar, he would have to be beating DR consistently already, also a RB protege
Nasr - would not even be in F1 without his sponsorship, may look like he is doing a decent job vs Ericsson but Ericsson isn't the best benchmark
Guiterrez - @ ferrari for his sponsorship dollars and his nationality, humbled by Hulk
JEV - if people looked past the face value of the 2012 standings vs DR in which JEV scored the majority of his points in the wet, then DR dominated him both in qualifying and race, reason why JEV was never in the race for the RB seat and also why they got rid of him

So that leaves really Bottas and DR as the best qualified for the Ferrari drive (DR who has already proven he can win and doing it against a 4xWDC no less). DR apparently isn't locked down for 2016 so that could still happen. I reckon most would take DR over VB for the Ferrari drive. I'm still yet to be convinced by Bottas though, he may turn into another Hulk or he could turn into a WDC.

At this stage I think if Kimi fixes his qualifying woes - which IMO is driving style related and the hardness of the tires from Pirelli + just poor management - then he will continue to be at Ferrari. Otherwise Ferrari will hire either Bottas or Ricciardo (Bottas being the favorite as Ricciardo might upset the apple cart with Vettel there).

[George-Jung]

Vettel will veto Ricciardo.. I'm 100% sure about that.

[iotar__]

Outside of Bottas, who is there really though when you think about it, probably why he is being talked up.

Hulk - had his chance, similar to Bottas. Guiterrez flattered him and now Perez has finding him out a bit.
Perez - had his chance and dumped by McLaren, has attitude problems apparently
Grosjean - was impressive for some part when Lotus was competitive but you look where Kimi is

So that leaves really Bottas and DR as the best qualified for the Ferrari drivePirelli + just poor management - then he will continue to be at Ferrari. Otherwise Ferrari will hire either Bottas or Ricciardo (Bottas being the favorite as Ricciardo might upset the apple cart with Vettel there).

I disagree about "the only candidates" and Ricciardo particularly but most of all I don't understand the logic. Why should it be used against Hulkenberg that he has a team-mate that performs at the highest level, a slow car and a team that gives them equal chances? On the opposite side is Ricciardo with considerably better cars and the only competition in RB program drivers. Perez "had his chance"? That's just completely wrong. Bad cars and getting better season after season against Button, Hulkenberg is "had his chance" for you? Did you miss Monza, Canada, Austria '14 or Monaco recently?

You're using current Raikkonen performance against Grosjean but not against Vettel and by similar poor cross-reference against Ricciardo. A. KR is two years older B. If if it's not clear Lotus-Raikkonen was a very special case, almost rookie seasons and you'll find plenty examples also against drivers other than KR. My favourites: second part of 2013 against Hamilton, there was nothing but the skills preventing him leading Suzuka and not being overtaken by a slower top speed Lotus in Korea. If you really believe that as long as Raikkonen "fixes" qualifying it's going to be great than I question all your other arguments. A. It's not a problem to be fixed Ferrari "discovered" after 6 races. B. it's also starts, wheel to wheel and yes, race pace too: both consistency and overall speed.

Ricciardo has much more to prove than for example Bottas or Hulkenberg not to mention Grosjean. 2014 RB was a better car than any other driver mentioned ever had, picking up the garbage after Merc is not a proof of anything. Especially Spa and Canada against Perez with a broken car, Hungary was a good win though. Not taking all the other chances (like Monaco), starts and current season should count against. Ricciardo's hype is based on one season, car with no competition and Vettel's hype. List is simple:

- Grosjean, too good, not marketable, won't happen
- Bottas - second best, very likely, I wouldn't mind
- ....
- Hulkenberg, Ricciardo depending on a car and competition, Perez: won't happen

[Phil]

Could he? surely, signing as a 4-times-world-champion carries some weight and Ferrari is riding on that as much as anyone in their position would, but he also signed during a time period when Ferrari was going through a big transition and while he was being beaten by his team-mate. Vettel was as much looking to join Ferrari as Ferrari was looking for a replacement for Alonso. Would he have any say in the matter? Maybe.

IMO - this 2nd driver who isn't good enough and a formidable consistent point scorer tactic hasn't worked out. Massa massively underdelievered against Alonso and it hurt them as a team. Then, Kimi comes along and he too is struggling massively, first against Alonso, now seemingly against Vettel. A good number 2 is great when you are leading the WCC and WDC, but Ferrari is doing neither. IMO, it's time for them to change and get the best that are available. This might include upsetting Vettel, but to be fair, it might also motivate him more and drive the team forward. My hunch is, this would have already helped during the days when Alonso was still at Ferrari. No one is bigger than the team, not Alonso, nor Vettel.

Good thing is, if Bottas indeed goes on to Ferrari, Ricciardo might move to Williams. RedBull, as good as they are, if they can't sort their engine issues or find an adequate partnership with someone else, the folks in Austria just might pull the plug and move on.

On the topic of Kimi; He might be able to sort his qualifying issues, but he seriously also needs a kick. In China, he was caught napping when Rosberg breezed past. That never should have been as easy as it was. Then in Monaco, it was another move that, while might be on the verge of legality, could have been avoided if he would have driven more defensively.

[ESPImperium]

Ill throw a curve ball.

Button at Ferrari for a year. MAG in the McLaren second seat for a year, see him against ALO. VAN in at Manor for the final third of this year, like RIC at HRT in 2011 then into a 'customer with a small C' ART-Honda in 2016 that will be like a Toro Rosso to Red Bull. Thats that thread covered.

BOT to stay at Williams for 2016 with MAS. BOT to move to Ferrari in 2017.

RAI will try and get back into the Lotus or unsettle MAS out of his seat at Williams if he wants to stay in F1, if not its retirement.

RIC will stay at Red Bull, as he is locked in on a rolling contract. VET has tightened Red Bulls contract system up, RIC can't speak to anyone until Red Bull get approached first, like a Football (Soccer) transfer as Red Bull act as his 'agent' in that respect. Red Bull have a similar set up with KVJ, SAI & VES as well.

GRO, HUL, PER, GUT, VER & SUT i think have all shot their bolt a little, i think HUL & GRO need a shot in a top car, just to see what they can do, even a test day for me. Im not gonna entertain MAL as he just aint worth it now, 2012 form maybe, but since then, theres better out there. ERI is a journeyman i think, give him 3 years tops. NAS needs a year or two to impress, but the money will always be a question with him.

The only people that will be laughing at this will be Mercedes as they have long term options now locked in and are the only team with continuity in the long term for drivers.

Im in the middle with BOT, he impresses sometimes, MAL made him look good, MAS kept him honest and to be honest he was starting to make BOT look bad at the end of last year and the first few races this year. If BOT does not win over MAS this year by more than 20% more points, questions will be asked i think. BOT may not be the light we have been told about. Im a RIC fan, but he needs to learn how to lead a team this year, develop the car to his liking, but if he has the car he will be able to win races, he needs a VET 2009 where winning 5+ times may make him into a title contender or winner the year later.

You never know, Ferrari may go and get Di Resta for a year with the job of being VET tail gunner, and that would be the true shocker in F1, but he has been about the F1 paddock recently in Barcelona and Monaco. You never know.

[jato]

I disagree about "the only candidates" and Ricciardo particularly but most of all I don't understand the logic. Why should it be used against Hulkenberg that he has a team-mate that performs at the highest level, a slow car and a team that gives them equal chances? On the opposite side is Ricciardo with considerably better cars and the only competition in RB program drivers. Perez "had his chance"? That's just completely wrong. Bad cars and getting better season after season against Button, Hulkenberg is "had his chance" for you? Did you miss Monza, Canada, Austria '14 or Monaco recently?

How many drivers do you see that are dropped from a top team - that are not top drivers already - get drafted back into another top team?

Why would a top team hire a driver who is on par with another driver that just got dropped from a top team? Hulk's stock was at its highest when he had brilliant races vs. Guiterrez and there was every chance he could have been in the Ferrari. That time has past. Perez's former team manager and his damning assessment of his driver's attitude problems as well as those that came of out McLaren will unlikely give even more of an incentive for top teams to hire him.

You're using current Raikkonen performance against Grosjean but not against Vettel and by similar poor cross-reference against Ricciardo. A. KR is two years older B. If if it's not clear Lotus-Raikkonen was a very special case, almost rookie seasons and you'll find plenty examples also against drivers other than KR. My favourites: second part of 2013 against Hamilton, there was nothing but the skills preventing him leading Suzuka and not being overtaken by a slower top speed Lotus in Korea. If you really believe that as long as Raikkonen "fixes" qualifying it's going to be great than I question all your other arguments. A. It's not a problem to be fixed Ferrari "discovered" after 6 races. B. it's also starts, wheel to wheel and yes, race pace too: both consistency and overall speed.

It was a flippant summary on Grosjean's part, should also take into consideration how he is against Maldonaldo. However, I'm still yet to be convinced by Grosjean either. He has improved a lot since his earlier days and is a solid driver now but a driver that top teams will take? I doubt it. Raikkonen was atrocious last year vs Alonso, his inability to the get the front end turning in how he likes disadvantages him both in qualifying and the race (especially with tires like the Pirelli's that don't get into operation temp quick) but his race pace hasn't been bad this season. The problem is that he qualifies so far behind he gives himself too much work to do. It is an improvement on last season at least. Not sure why you would consider Lotus-Kimi a special case.

Ricciardo has much more to prove than for example Bottas or Hulkenberg not to mention Grosjean. 2014 RB was a better car than any other driver mentioned ever had, picking up the garbage after Merc is not a proof of anything. Especially Spa and Canada against Perez with a broken car, Hungary was a good win though. Not taking all the other chances (like Monaco), starts and current season should count against. Ricciardo's hype is based on one season, car with no competition and Vettel's hype. List is simple:

- Grosjean, too good, not marketable, won't happen
- Bottas - second best, very likely, I wouldn't mind
- ....
- Hulkenberg, Ricciardo depending on a car and competition, Perez: won't happen

Why would Ricciardo have more to prove than Bottas or Hulk or Grosjean? He has done what the other drivers have not done > win races - against a 4xWDC and against a dominate car. You say 2014 RB was a better car than the other drivers, I beg to differ to an extent.

Yes in the early part of 2014 RB was the 2nd best car but you look at Australia. The Williams had the better race pace than the RB but Bottas put it in the wall. You look at races like Austria, Germany, Silverstone where the Williams was 0.5s quicker at least in qualifying. Williams had as good of a car as RB and in some cases better especially with their PU.

Hulk hasn't had the car to compete for podiums that I agree. I also think if Hulk continued to do well against Perez after the Sauber stint then he would still be considered but after his time against Perez I don't think his stock will ever get back to as high as it was. Also if Kimi managed to win in 2012/2013 there is no reason why Grosjean didn't have that opportunity either despite it being his first season back in F1. If Grosjean is as good as you make him out to be, then why do we not hear anything about him moving to a better team?

[raymondu999]

You never know, Ferrari may go and get Di Resta for a year with the job of being VET tail gunner, and that would be the true shocker in F1, but he has been about the F1 paddock recently in Barcelona and Monaco. You never know.

Why Di Resta and not Vergne or Gutierrez, who is already on the Ferrari books?

[Racer X]

http://fast-mag.com/2015/06/pastor-debe ... l-asiento/

Lotus tells him his seat isn't guaranteed?

Do they mean next season or this season'.

[ESPImperium]

Ive came across some new information for 2016, that may or not be true, and it looks like this:

Mercedes AMG = HAM/ROS
Scuderia Ferrari = VET/RAI
Williams-Mercedes = BOT/MAS
Red Bull-Renault= RIC/KVJ
McLaren-Honda = ALO/BUT
Lotus-Mercedes = MAL/PAL
Force India-HONDA = PER/MAG
Sauber-Ferrari = ERI/NAS
Toro Rosso-Renault = VES/SAI
Manor-HONDA = STE/VAN
Haas-Ferrari = GUT/HUL
Renault F1 Team = GRO/???

Renault to be a single engine entry in 2017 with Red Bull & Toro Rosso adopting a Audi Power Train. Honda to supply Force India and Manor in 2016 as its better financially for them, a saving of maybe €5m to my info.

[PlatinumZealot]

Ive came across some new information for 2016, that may or not be true, and it looks like this:

Mercedes AMG = HAM/ROS
Scuderia Ferrari = VET/RAI
Williams-Mercedes = BOT/MAS
Red Bull-Renault= RIC/KVJ
McLaren-Honda = ALO/BUT
Lotus-Mercedes = MAL/PAL
Force India-HONDA = PER/MAG
Sauber-Ferrari = ERI/NAS
Toro Rosso-Renault = VES/SAI
Manor-HONDA = STE/VAN
Haas-Ferrari = GUT/HUL
Renault F1 Team = GRO/???

Renault to be a single engine entry in 2017 with Red Bull & Toro Rosso adopting a Audi Power Train. Honda to supply Force India and Manor in 2016 as its better financially for them, a saving of maybe €5m to my info.

whis KVJ and why does he deserve a RedBull seat?
Palmer would need to find funds and lots of it for that seat.
Yeah I can see the force india KMAG thing happening... But Hulk to Haas?! That is a backward step for HULK. I see HULK going to Ferrari and replacing KIMI.

Manor HOnda? Why? They will be receiving their new Ferrari unit in a few races. Powerful, efficient, reliable, affordable. Why would they go to honda?

[efuloni]

I'm gonna repeat: I think that if Bottas moves to Ferrari next year, we might see a pretty cool williams with Mas/Rai or Mas/But. Either way would be a very nice pair, mainly if its Mas/But. Two old guys for one last season.

Nasr, if keeps going well, could move back to Williams to replace his fellow brazilian in 2017.

[Nathanael F1]

I'm gonna repeat: I think that if Bottas moves to Ferrari next year, we might see a pretty cool williams with Mas/Rai or Mas/But. Either way would be a very nice pair, mainly if its Mas/But. Two old guys for one last season.

Nasr, if keeps going well, could move back to Williams to replace his fellow brazilian in 2017.

I don't get the feeling that Raikkonen will go on after he loses his Ferrari seat. For me, I'd like Bottas to move to Ferrari in 2016/17 and Hulk to Williams.

[Cold Fussion]

Ive came across some new information for 2016, that may or not be true, and it looks like this:

Mercedes AMG = HAM/ROS
Scuderia Ferrari = VET/RAI
Williams-Mercedes = BOT/MAS
Red Bull-Renault= RIC/KVJ
McLaren-Honda = ALO/BUT
Lotus-Mercedes = MAL/PAL
Force India-HONDA = PER/MAG
Sauber-Ferrari = ERI/NAS
Toro Rosso-Renault = VES/SAI
Manor-HONDA = STE/VAN
Haas-Ferrari = GUT/HUL
Renault F1 Team = GRO/???

Renault to be a single engine entry in 2017 with Red Bull & Toro Rosso adopting a Audi Power Train. Honda to supply Force India and Manor in 2016 as its better financially for them, a saving of maybe €5m to my info.

whis KVJ and why does he deserve a RedBull seat?
Palmer would need to find funds and lots of it for that seat.
Yeah I can see the force india KMAG thing happening... But Hulk to Haas?! That is a backward step for HULK. I see HULK going to Ferrari and replacing KIMI.

Manor HOnda? Why? They will be receiving their new Ferrari unit in a few races. Powerful, efficient, reliable, affordable. Why would they go to honda?

This is just ESPImperium's lastest spaghetti on the wall exercise, I wouldn't pay much attention to it. The only way I see Manor taking Honda is they get a significant discount or even get the engines for free.

[wickedz50]

This is just ESPImperium's lastest spaghetti on the wall exercise, I wouldn't pay much attention to it. The only way I see Manor taking Honda is they get a significant discount or even get the engines for free.[/quote]

I do not see anyone will be taking on Honda engines at the way Honda is performing with Mclaren. Like you said only if it comes free then the cash strapped teams may look at it as an option.
Honda should concentrate more on the next technical change because the current project is currently a mess, by the time they fix this and become competetive the rules will change.