2022 pecking order speculation

[Hoffman900]

No, it’s an attempt to balance performance. Efficient development is to be encouraged.

Efficient development still rewards the teams with the best resources and talent.

The less efficient you are, you spend more of your CFD and wind tunnel time chasing correlation issues.

Merc and RB are better at this than anyone and will always be able to do more with less. They can’t unlearn what they already know.

[SmallSoldier]

No, it’s an attempt to balance performance. Efficient development is to be encouraged.

Efficient development still rewards the teams with the best resources and talent.

The less efficient you are, you spend more of your CFD and wind tunnel time chasing correlation issues.

Merc and RB are better at this than anyone and will always be able to do more with less. They can’t unlearn what they already know.

There’s an argument to be made that at the same time, the likes of Mercedes and Red Bull may suffer more than the rest of the field with the Budget Cap… When you are used to operate with a budget that is double or more than those that lead the midfield, operating under such constraints can be very difficult.

There is no question that they are efficient teams, but how much of that efficiency was due to the additional resources compared to the rest? How much of that efficiency will be lost due to the new constraints in place?

In addition, you are absolutely right when you state that they can’t unlearn things, the problem is where that learning resided and how it helped them outpace the rest… If for example Red Bull’s performance differentiator was in regards to how they managed their high rake philosophy, that advantage and knowledge won’t translate to the new generation of cars or if Mercedes’ one was in regards to how efficient their bargeboards were, they will also lose that advantage.

I do agree that Mercedes and Red Bull are most probably the ones to be at the front this year, but it wouldn’t be too surprising if they actually have lost a lot of their competitive edge towards the rest of the field due to the Budget Cap and new regulations.

It will be very interesting once the cars hit the track for testing, there are a few teams that could be dark horses in 2022, with the likes of Ferrari, McLaren and Alpine as potential surprises… The fact that those teams not only had more CFD / Wind Tunnel time available to them, but probably have focused on the new regulations for longer (since they weren’t fighting for the Championship in 2021) may give them an edge over the incumbents.

[jumpingfish]

No, it’s an attempt to balance performance. Efficient development is to be encouraged.

Efficient development still rewards the teams with the best resources and talent.

The less efficient you are, you spend more of your CFD and wind tunnel time chasing correlation issues.

Merc and RB are better at this than anyone and will always be able to do more with less. They can’t unlearn what they already know.

There’s an argument to be made that at the same time, the likes of Mercedes and Red Bull may suffer more than the rest of the field with the Budget Cap… When you are used to operate with a budget that is double or more than those that lead the midfield, operating under such constraints can be very difficult.

There is no question that they are efficient teams, but how much of that efficiency was due to the additional resources compared to the rest? How much of that efficiency will be lost due to the new constraints in place?

In addition, you are absolutely right when you state that they can’t unlearn things, the problem is where that learning resided and how it helped them outpace the rest… If for example Red Bull’s performance differentiator was in regards to how they managed their high rake philosophy, that advantage and knowledge won’t translate to the new generation of cars or if Mercedes’ one was in regards to how efficient their bargeboards were, they will also lose that advantage.

I do agree that Mercedes and Red Bull are most probably the ones to be at the front this year, but it wouldn’t be too surprising if they actually have lost a lot of their competitive edge towards the rest of the field due to the Budget Cap and new regulations.

It will be very interesting once the cars hit the track for testing, there are a few teams that could be dark horses in 2022, with the likes of Ferrari, McLaren and Alpine as potential surprises… The fact that those teams not only had more CFD / Wind Tunnel time available to them, but probably have focused on the new regulations for longer (since they weren’t fighting for the Championship in 2021) may give them an edge over the incumbents.

The budget limit will have a significant impact, recently Mekies said in an interview that if in 2021 they could allow drivers to go to the limit in order to push each other for the sake of a result and repair damaged cars, then in 2022 every cent spent on car repairs will limit development during the season. Therefore, although there will be seasonal updates, they will not be as frequent as in 2018-2019.

[AeroDynamic]

Let’s mention engines. What about them? The 10% ethanol increase is reported to impact performance enough to make a difference worth clawing back quickly.

So between Ferrari, Honda, Renault, and Mercedes, who is likely to sort this one out?

Renault have lagged with reliability, so I’m going to say not Renault.

Ferrari have been strong in the hybrid season but they didn’t always do it on merit, they had to work outside of the rules recently, so, I’m not convinced they are the favourites but they’re still Ferrari.

Honda have been behind for years. They have thrown everything at the last season but they are leaving / left. How much money / R&D has really been afforded to overcoming that change? Has it been sustained during such a large process as leaving the sport and handing over to RedBull?

Mercedes I would say are favourites. I can only see Honda doing a better job solving the change but I’m left with the question of wondering how much third party advice from new Mercedes’ employees, made its way to Honda when they made such an unusually large leap in performance? If that was a big factor then that doesn’t bode well for Red Bull.

It might be that Mercedes’ still have the leading engineers and minds in the engine field. We shall see soon.

[Hoffman900]

Remember Mercedes is essentially Ilmor. They (Ilmor) taught Honda how to deal with alcohol fuels in Indy Car racing, before they brought it in house at HRD. While both have a presence in Indy Car still, Ilmor Chevy is still a step ahead.

While a totally different engine design, it does remind me that Honda when first entering Indy Car in the early 90s fell back on their V6 Turbo and NA F1 experience, and struggled mightily.

I do believe those two are still a leap of ahead of Ferrari and Renault and would put Merc / Honda close to a wash.

I think the budget cap is overstated. Main stream sports teams in the US have had budget caps for years, and there are still dynasties. There are high performing General Managers, coaches, etc. who are excellent of managing finite resources.

[Big Tea]

Also remember guys, the higher the finishing position in 2021, the less development time the team gets in 2022.
So not only were they using 2022 resources to keep the 21 car at the sharp end, but by doing s were losing tunnel time in 22.
I see Ferrari being 'up there' at least for most of the season.

[SmallSoldier]

Remember Mercedes is essentially Ilmor. They (Ilmor) taught Honda how to deal with alcohol fuels in Indy Car racing, before they brought it in house at HRD. While both have a presence in Indy Car still, Ilmor Chevy is still a step ahead.

While a totally different engine design, it does remind me that Honda when first entering Indy Car in the early 90s fell back on their V6 Turbo and NA F1 experience, and struggled mightily.

I do believe those two are still a leap of ahead of Ferrari and Renault and would put Merc / Honda close to a wash.

I think the budget cap is overstated. Main stream sports teams in the US have had budget caps for years, and there are still dynasties. There are high performing General Managers, coaches, etc. who are excellent of managing finite resources.

That’s the particular challenge… Those that have been leading the top teams are used to do so with a lot more resources than they have at their disposal now… How good they can adjust to managing what will feel like lack of resources will make the biggest difference.

This applies not only to the Toto’s, Horner’s and Binotto’s, but also to those below them and potentially one or two more levels below those… I’ve seeing it a few times in the businesses I’ve lead, in which changes in assignments to fantastic leaders / managers made them struggle when they were faced with lesser resources than they were used to work with in the past. It’s way easier to adjust to additional resources than it is to lesser.

I’m not saying that the big 3 will struggle, but is still to be seeing how well they adjust to the new structures they will have to put in place, one could argue that they have already had one year with the cap, but 2021 car performance was a result of their infrastructure in 2020.

[Jolle]

If the budget cap has any effect, it will play in the hands of the teams with the most data available. The smaller teams without a big car manufacturer behind them will have a considerable disadvantage because of it. I suspect a company like Daimler has a ton of data available to the team, where McLaren and Williams have next to none. RedBull is a bit of a dark horse, as in, how far will their partnership with Honda go the coming years.
As for the transition to ethanol base fuels, I expect Ferrari and Renault learned from Mercedes and got more support from the head offices in this transition this time.

There are two other matters to take in account.
We’ve seen RedBull, McLaren and especially Ferrari struggle with windtunnel/CFD correlation with every new platform and they all took a few seasons to make their design work. Mercedes on the other hand had problems making their platform work (what they called the Diva behaviour).

I hope for a few teams fighting for first, but I’m afraid it’s going to be Mercedes again far ahead.

[ME4ME]

I think Red Bull will have a typical Red Bull season, starting off the pace and catch up by the end of the season. I expect them to have accepted that, once they chose to go for Max's WDC in 21.

This time though, they'll likely have power parity and best or equal best reliabilty.
Reliabilty will be crucial to get milage early on, to understand the new aero, the new tires. Ferrari and Alpine/Renault will have their work cut of for them in that respect, PU failures will be costly.
So even if Ferrari and Alpine start with a better car, I doubt the pecking order will be static. I think RBR will surpass aforementioned teams on pace at the end.

Mercedes will surely be super consistent again, quick and reliable collecting all the points early in the season and securing the championship.

I don't think Mclaren and Aston Martin will be in the title hunt.
Mclaren: I don't see where the sudden gains are to come from. They already had the Mercedes PU last year.
Aston Martin: All their new hirings won't be onboard untill the end of the year.

[Big Tea]

I think Red Bull will have a typical Red Bull season, starting off the pace and catch up by the end of the season. I expect them to have accepted that, once they chose to go for Max's WDC in 21.

This time though, they'll likely have power parity and best or equal best reliabilty.
Reliabilty will be crucial to get milage early on, to understand the new aero, the new tires. Ferrari and Alpine/Renault will have their work cut of for them in that respect, PU failures will be costly.
So even if Ferrari and Alpine start with a better car, I doubt the pecking order will be static. I think RBR will surpass aforementioned teams on pace at the end.

Mercedes will surely be super consistent again, quick and reliable collecting all the points early in the season and securing the championship.

I don't think Mclaren and Aston Martin will be in the title hunt.
Mclaren: I don't see where the sudden gains are to come from. They already had the Mercedes PU last year.
Aston Martin: All their new hirings won't be onboard untill the end of the year.

I know it is not reliability as such, but affects finishing position or even just finishing, but there is a new driver in the other Merc.

Lets face it, Max has an 'aggressive' overtaking style and several times Hamilton has seen the better option for his points tally and conceded the corner, will Russell or will there be more 'mishaps'?

(As Sting puts it) Hamilton walks but never runs, so there are incidents, but I think many more are avoided due to this mind set. I see Russell as a much more abrasive and elbows out driver and there may be DNF's on both sides due to this. (remember him smacking Bottas on the helmet)

If things continue as they have this year, the top 4 would be the Mercs and Red bulls. Leaving Checo aside, as he will do what is asked of him, the interaction between the 'other' Red Bull and Merc could easily decide which way the championship(s) go.

[Hoffman900]

If the cars are closer, I see Max having run ins with multiple drivers. I don’t see Sainz, Leclerc, or Russell avoiding collisions like Lewis has. Barcelona is a good example of a situation that would have likely resulted in a crash / DNF for Max and whomever else.

If Ferrari and RedBull are close, I can definitly see Max and Charles getting into it. Charles is probably the most crash prone driver on the grid at the moment. That may be a function if trying to get more out of less, so if they build a good car, that may go away some.

[fritticaldi]

Its likely we will see another situation such as 2009 with the Brawn cars of Button and Barrichello and their unique interpretation of the rules.

[Zynerji]

Its likely we will see another situation such as 2009 with the Brawn cars of Button and Barrichello and their unique interpretation of the rules.

Maybe.

The rules have been so restricted, they all may end up in the same corner of the sandbox.

[pantherxxx]

Ferrari will dominate 2022. The shorter wheelbase and the lack of bargeboards will hurt Mercedes, Red Bull will not be that good because of the new fuel regulations. Ferrari hasn't been developing their chassis since 2020.

[El Scorchio]

Its likely we will see another situation such as 2009 with the Brawn cars of Button and Barrichello and their unique interpretation of the rules.

Maybe.

The rules have been so restricted, they all may end up in the same corner of the sandbox.

This is my fear. There will be not enough scope for significant differences and individual innovation in design philosophy. In theory it may make for closer racing but I imagine it might take a couple of seasons for real convergence. There could be some big gaps between first and last this season. But I love not knowing who will fall where.