2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, April 27-29

[zibby43]

1.Don`t you think guys that Merc is holding back something? Until now they`ve got barely any updates to their car. Maybe they`ll have the big bits for Barca race and don`t what other teams to see what they are doing? Or maybe they think it`s wiser to learn 2018 tyres with the same platform and then address the car with the proper updates?

2.Seems that it`s the same scenario like in previous years: Merc car likes harder tyres coz harder the tyre is wider the operation window it has. This means their car has a narrow sweet spot and even narrower than W08! And regarding this, some said it`s down to their raised suspension pickup points having thus even tighter limits for setting them up than last year …

3.Other said they are playing very safe on PU modes, bearing in mind they have 7 races to endure this season. Just here in the 4th race, they have a small update but a software one – as Force India director Otmar said on Sky. For me, it means they are not so conservative like the first 3 races and it should be translated to 0.05 or 0.1s/lap gain in the race.

4.Is it me or it seems that this year we have the reversed 2017 situation: Ferrari is better in qualy and Merc into the race?

5.There`s a one-stop race. So, for Ferrari and Red Bull could be SS-US strategy but for Merc could be SS-S easily. Therefore, I see Lewis stopping earlier than Seb, but not for the first reason – the undercut – but for having more time on S tyre, which could be the right tyre to choose tomorrow knowing will have lower track temp than today … and for that reason it could be a nightmare for those who will run the US tyre in the second stint …

6. Lewis said in press conference that they changed almost everything on the car even the ride height … indeed they seemed to have no sparks on the long straight … that means they raised the car hence gained some downforce for the second sector their weakest point this weekend coz their top speed didn`t change much … seems that they are looking for higher ride setups or it was a track related situation?

5.Regarding the rear wing setup, it`s clear that Merc went for a car with more top speed for overtaking. As the picture below shows us, Lewis did 318km/h with DRS and Seb just 309 … Remember, those speeds are in the speed trap and all cars surpassed that value until they brake for the first turn (max.speed is in SPD3 column) ... So, without DRS Seb could be at 289-294km/h hence delta is 29-34km/h … but as I mentioned before, last year 30km/h difference in speed wasn`t enough to pass here and maybe Lewis need a tow like we saw in FP1 on Ricci`s car when he reached 349km/h and without it (and just DRS) he barely managed 312km/h… I mean 37km/h delta between a tow and a non-one is really crazy! (maybe he was on a double tow then …) …

https://s18.postimg.cc/s1irrqzd5/2018-0 ... n_View.jpg

You make some great observations and raise some interesting questions.

Regarding point number 4, it is definitely not just you. It is really starting to become a trend, especially when it comes to Merc's race pace on the harder compound tires.

Are we seeing Allison's impact here? The W09 is much, much better than its predecessor with respect to managing tire degradation in race trim. The W08 had a propensity to chew through the rears frighteningly quickly (especially at the beginning of the season), while the W09 treats them gently.

I wonder, though, was this a mistep by Merc? The blueprint for success thus far in the hybrid era has been to have the quickest car(s) in qualifying. We're in year 2 of the new aero regulations, so it remains to be seen whether that is still the best approach. The W08 was the best car in qualifying for much of 2017, despite the SF70H having the edge in race trim at most circuits, and we all saw how that turned out.

Merc has serious, serious work to do in terms of qualifying pace. They need to bring a massive update at Barcelona, and hope it's enough to start them on a development path that will help solve their one-lap tire management woes.

Vettel's Ferrari looked supremely balanced today in Q3. His steering inputs were smooth; looked like the feedback he was getting from the front end was sublime.

[Kalsi]

2018 pole lap from Vettel was Almost 1sec Slower than last year Hamilton's one... if you pause the video here and there you can see Vettel kept it up and almost was a little bit faster till last 2 corners... 1 second just from the finish line straight.... what happened??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9HUTC6R-cs

[godlameroso]

Less drag and oil burning power and no ridiculous cross wind/head wind.

On a weather related note, it's going to be even windier in the race 16km/h windier and it's going to be colder as well. Safety car is assured with wind gusts between buildings some squirrely moments are bound to happen. I really hope Hartley gets some points I think that's all it would take to calm him down.

[Zynerji]

On the Toro Rosso topic, after watching it a few times, I actually have changed my view and believe that Gasley was the one most at fault.

Upon rounding the bend and first seeing the slower car ahead of him, he tucks in to actually pick up a tow, and that makes it look like a fact that he didn't pick a side when he was knowingly coming up behind a much slower-moving car. Had he just stuck to the right hand side of the track, Hartley would have seen him from a long way off and known to get over to the left. It looks like Hartley completely lost him in his mirrors when he came to pick up the tow.

[PlatinumZealot]

On the Toro Rosso topic, after watching it a few times, I actually have changed my view and believe that Gasley was the one most at fault.

Upon rounding the bend and first seeing the slower car ahead of him, he tucks in to actually pick up a tow, and that makes it look like a fact that he didn't pick a side when he was knowingly coming up behind a much slower-moving car. Had he just stuck to the right hand side of the track, Hartley would have seen him from a long way off and known to get over to the left. It looks like Hartley completely lost him in his mirrors when he came to pick up the tow.

He said he didn't know whether to go right or left. Understandable approaching a limping car in the middle of the road.

[gshevlin]

I cannot believe the level of invective and general nastiness being directed at brendon hartley. I watched the replay of the incident on ESPN/Sky and it seems to me that Gasly does initially come up on Hartley directly behind him, which would have made him difficult to see in F1 wing mirrors (which are really not that good). Gasly then moves right to take the fastest line for the corner. Unfortunately Hartley initially also moves right, then stops moving right, which is just as well since had he continued there would probably have been a dangerous collision.
Instead of hurling abuse at Hartley, everybody should be thankful that this did not turn out like the fatal accident to Gilles Villeneuve in 1982, when he came upon Jochen Mass as he entered a narrow corner on a qualifying lap, and both drivers moved the same way, leaving Villeneuve with nowhere to go except up over Mass's rear wheel.
Is Brendon Hartley out of his depth in formula 1? I tend to think that a driver with multiple WEC championships is probably not an amateur, but Hartley has not raced an open-wheel car in nearly 8 years, so expecting him to be instantly fast was probably not realistic. WEC will have taught him a lot about smooth fast driving, but I suspect that he has yet to learn how to get the last 3 or 4 tenths out of the car, especially in qualifying. The Toro Rosso is not a great car right now, the forums here have discussed how its rear end aero looks far from optimized, and anybody that thinks that Pierre Gasly's recent 4th place is an accurate reflection of the car's competiveness is living somewhere between fantasy-land and cloud-cuckooland.

[Fulcrum]

While the weather (wind) and temperatures are playing a part in limiting the times, the Halo device is definitely impairing top speeds. Through the speed trap cars are on average 3% slower than last year, averaging around 325kph last year, and 315kph this year.

Given this is pure additional drag, and weight, I assume this would have a similarly negative effect on fuel efficiency? Meaning the fuel consumption for this track is higher than last year, and doubtless the Halo causes higher fuel consumption everywhere?

Breaking down the speed trap differentials by team:

Ferrari : 323.55 in 2017 vs. 309.35 in 2018 : 4.27% slower
Mercedes : 327.40 in 2017 vs. 316.85 in 2018 : 3.33% slower
Red Bull : 325.90 in 2017 vs. 316.00 in 2018 : 3.13% slower

Interestingly, McLaren have relatively low speed trap differentials.

315.45 in 2017 vs. 311.20 in 2018 : 1.37% slower

This could be a reasonable proxy for the performance differential of the Honda engine; i.e. all things being equal, a Honda-powered McLaren would have been expected to yield a Speed Trap figure of about 305-306kph. Ironically enough, Gasly managed 304.3kph, very much in line with my expectation for Honda performance, albeit in another car.

How much power differential (kW) would account for a 5 kph difference in straight line performance? I know there are many other variables to account for, just curious if there is any range that could be applied to account for this differential.

[Vanja #66]

I hope I won't regret asking this, but how can you still say that with Renault actually saving a set of SS instead of US for P3/Q/R and then used them in P3 instead of saving them for the race? Every team ended up having 4 sets of US for Q/R, 1 SS and 1 S. Every team.

Hum, everyone outside the top 6 has got at least 1 new (unused) set of both SS and S, which is considered to be the better ‘race tire’.

Obviously, the teams outside the top 6 have other considerations to make - most of them cant afford to run the ‘better race tire’ for Q2, because they need every bit of performance from the quickest tire to get into Q3.

The Mercedes clearly favors the SS/S tire, so clearly they’d be at an advantage if they had an extra unused set for any eventuality.

This especially holds true for Ferrari/Kimi who went into Q2 never having driven the SS. Karun explained it quite nicely in the CH4 broadcast. Why are you still arguing this point?

You are right, there is no point discussing this any more.

[henra]

How much power differential (kW) would account for a 5 kph difference in straight line performance?

Power required for overcoming Drag rises with speed to the power of three.
So, 310kph vs 305 would be (310/305)^3.
That is prretty exactly 5%. Now you would need to know how much much the engine produces at that speed.
But order of Magnitude would be somewhere 30-40HPish.

But as you mention 5% difference in drag isn't that much. Can easily result from different aero efficiencies or simply rather minor wing settings.

[Fulcrum]

How much power differential (kW) would account for a 5 kph difference in straight line performance?

Power required for overcoming Drag rises with speed to the power of three.
So, 310kph vs 305 would be (310/305)^3.
That is prretty exactly 5%. Now you would need to know how much much the engine produces at that speed.
But order of Magnitude would be somewhere 30-40HPish.

But as you mention 5% difference in drag isn't that much. Can easily result from different aero efficiencies or simply rather minor wing settings.

Excellent. Even though this is very abstracted, I would suggest a Honda-to-Renault deficit of 30-40HP is in the neighbourhood of what we see being mentioned in the other threads here, and elsewhere within the F1 community.

[Restomaniac]

I hope I won't regret asking this, but how can you still say that with Renault actually saving a set of SS instead of US for P3/Q/R and then used them in P3 instead of saving them for the race? Every team ended up having 4 sets of US for Q/R, 1 SS and 1 S. Every team.

Hum, everyone outside the top 6 has got at least 1 new (unused) set of both SS and S, which is considered to be the better ‘race tire’.

Obviously, the teams outside the top 6 have other considerations to make - most of them cant afford to run the ‘better race tire’ for Q2, because they need every bit of performance from the quickest tire to get into Q3.

The Mercedes clearly favors the SS/S tire, so clearly they’d be at an advantage if they had an extra unused set for any eventuality.

This especially holds true for Ferrari/Kimi who went into Q2 never having driven the SS. Karun explained it quite nicely in the CH4 broadcast. Why are you still arguing this point?

TBH I've stopped the argument now. It's clear my point is very valid as you say.
The teams made a mistake with the amount of US they brought and if you asked them all they would like to rethink that.

[LM10]

1.Don`t you think guys that Merc is holding back something?

Why on earth would they do that? It's racing time not testing time.

[Harvester]

1.Don`t you think guys that Merc is holding back something?

Why on earth would they do that? It's racing time not testing time.

In my opinion they are the team that is now most hurt with oil limit. Last year they could always compensate their tyre struggle with dominant qualy mode. Now they don't have the same advantage. To me it was perfectly clear why they inroduced their new PU before oil limit last year no matter what Wolf said.

[Zynerji]

On the Toro Rosso topic, after watching it a few times, I actually have changed my view and believe that Gasley was the one most at fault.

Upon rounding the bend and first seeing the slower car ahead of him, he tucks in to actually pick up a tow, and that makes it look like a fact that he didn't pick a side when he was knowingly coming up behind a much slower-moving car. Had he just stuck to the right hand side of the track, Hartley would have seen him from a long way off and known to get over to the left. It looks like Hartley completely lost him in his mirrors when he came to pick up the tow.

He said he didn't know whether to go right or left. Understandable approaching a limping car in the middle of the road.

The video shows that he aimed for the slow car to get a tow in a bad spot. Hartley was blind to him.

[Phil]

Reflecting back on last years race, i think any safety car will be incredibly difficult for the leading car, because the tow along the straight is huge. Hamilton last year only managed to stay ahead... just, thanks to being incredibly cheeky/aggressive. If a Ferrai is the leading car, they could be even more vulnerable given the differing drag levels.