I thought I'd just present some numbers which hopefully can make it easier to judge what can be considered a clear top dog, and what can be considered a "equal" or "even", (although I actually havent seen this term used here for anyone yet). The terms fairly clear and slim top dog can then be put somewhere between.
I have looked at all the drivers who have both scored points and had the same team mate for at least 2 seasons after the point's system was changed ahead of the 2010 season. I have then tried to see what variations in performance, based on points, we can expect to see between two team mates. It is my opinion that in order to be a clear top dog, the difference between him and his team mate should be greater than these variations.
For example, if a driver scores 150 points during one season, and his teammate scores 151 points during the same season, we can't say with confidence that the latter is the better driver and that he will probably continue to outscore his teammate in the future. However, if a driver scores 300 points and his teammate scores 50 points, he is clearly a better driver and can be expected to perform better than his team mate in the future as well. But were do we draw the line between "clearly better" and "not possible to determine"? And where can we fit in the "probably better" or "fairly clear top dog"?
I want to make it clear that I don't consider this an exact science, I am simply playing around with numbers based more or less on intuition. So any comments or suggestions for improvements or changes are encouraged.
Now, let's look at the data:
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Red Bull Ferrari McLaren Mercedes Toro Rosso
VET WEB ALO MAS BUT HAM ROS MSC ALG BUE
2010 256 242 252 144 214 240 142 72 5 8
2011 392 258 257 118 270 227 89 76 26 15
2012 281 179 278 122 188 190 93 49 - -
We see for example that Vettel scored 14 points more than Webber in 2010, and 134 points more than Webber in 2011. This is a change of 120 points, which says something about how much the driver's performance can vary. We also see that Alguersuari changed from -3 points compared to Buemi in 2010 to +11 points. Of course Alguersuari could never hope to improve as much as Vettel, as 120 points is way out of reach for his team. So in order to make the variations for teams with different performance more comparable, I will scale the number by the team's total score and instead of points, look at how many percent of the team's total points each driver scores.
So here are the teams' points and each driver's contribution to his team:
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Red Bull Ferrari McLaren Mercedes Toro Rosso
2010 498 396 454 214 13
2011 650 375 497 165 41
2012 460 400 378 142 -
Red Bull Ferrari McLaren Mercedes Toro Rosso
VET WEB ALO MAS BUT HAM ROS MSC ALG BUE
2010 51.41% 48.59% 63.64% 36.36% 47.14% 52.86% 66.36% 33.64% 38.46% 61.54%
2011 60.31% 39.69% 68.53% 31.47% 54.33% 45.67% 53.94% 46.06% 63.41% 36.59%
2012 61.09% 38.91% 69.50% 30.50% 49.74% 50.26% 65.49% 34.51% - -
Now, each driver has a score which is not too much influenced by how good his car is, some sort of relative performance. We see for example that Alonso generally scores higher than Vettel, although Red Bull has scored more points than Ferrari every season. This may be a result of Alonso being better than Vettel, or Webber being better than Massa. This study doesn't give any answer to that.
So now, let's look at the changes/variation that we actually observe. I will simply look at two seasons at a time and compare each driver's relative performance:
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Red Bull Ferrari McLaren Mercedes Toro Rosso
VET WEB ALO MAS BUT HAM ROS MSC ALG BUE
2010 and 2011 8.90% -8.90% 4.90% -4.90% 7.19% -7.19% -12.42% 12.42% 24.95% -24.95%
2010 and 2012 9.68% -9.68% 5.86% -5.86% 2.60% -2.60% -0.86% 0.86% - -
2011 and 2012 0.78% -0.78% 0.97% -0.97% -4.59% 4.59% 11.55% -11.55% - -
Obviously, the sum of changes within a team is always zero, since we are talking about relative changes within the team. Toro Rosso is an extreme example, probably mostly caused by the fact that they rarly scored points in 2010 (only 13 points in total) which means the numbers are more influenced by chance. So let's look at McLaren in 2010 and 2011 for example: We see a change of 7.19%. If we multiply this number with the total number of points that McLaren took in 2010 and 2011, we get 68 points. This number resembles the difference in driver performance measured in points, which is 69 points, i.e. Button improved relative to Hamilton by 69 points (from -26 to +43) . The reason why we don't get exactly 69 is that McLaren didn't score the same number of points in 2010 as in 2011.
Now, if we take the average of the absolute value of these numbers, which happens to be equal to the average of only the positive numbers above, and multiply it by 2, we should have some indication of the performance fluctuation that we may see from one season to another. The average value is 7.32%, so we get 14.64% after multiplying by 2. Of course, this number should ideally be based on a lot more data, but at least it gives an indication. It makes no sense including the decimals, as this number is very rough anyway, so let's say it's 15%. This is not an expected change, the expectancy should be that nothing changes from one season to another. But it gives an idea of how large the changes may normally be.
Now, I actually feel like dividing by 2 again in order to determine the margin with which a driver should outscore his teammate to be probably better: If driver A scores 115 points one season, and his teammate, driver B scores 85 points during the same season, the difference is 30 points, which is exactly 15% of the team's total points. This may change for the next season, so that both drivers score 100 points (and driver B could ahead based on better single race position). So now it could be 1 - 1 in terms of full-season teammate battles. But driver A still has more points in total than driver B over the two seasons, so he should still be ranked first. Since this is a two-side uncertainty we only have an idea of how much things may vary, so driver A could also outscore driver B with 130 points to 70 during the next season.
Let's say 7%: If one driver scores 107 points and his teammate scores 93 points, which gives exactly 7%, it is not only quite possible that he won't outscore his teammate the next season, it is also possible that he won't outscore his teammate in total.
So I suggest the following rating:
Margin smaller than 7%: Slim top dog
Margin of 7% - 15%: Farily clear top dog
Margin greater than 15%: Clear top dog
So what if look at some of the teammates in this perspective? Red Bull, Ferrari and Lotus are quite clear already, as they haven't changed drivers for this year and they have clear top dogs. So let's look at some other teams (numbers are rounded off to closest integer):
McLaren: 37 points
7% margin: 3 points
15% margin: 6 points
Button: 25 points
Perez: 12 points
Clear top dog: Button
Mercedes: 134 points
7% margin: 9 points
15% margin: 20 points
Hamilton: 77 points
Rosberg: 57 points
Fairly (almost) clear top dog: Hamilton
Force India: 51
7% margin: 4 points
15% margin: 8 points
di Resta: 34 points
Sutil: 17 points
Clear top dog: Hamilton
Toro Rosso: 20
7% margin: 1 point
15% margin: 3 points
Vergne: 13 points
Ricciardo: 7 points
Clear top dog: Vergne
The number 7% may be inaccurate because it is base on limited data, but so may any conclusion based on only 7 races be, as they are based on even less data. One race is still enough to turn things upside-down even in teams with a clear top dog at the moment. Things like technical failures and team orders are not compensated for here and as I have said earlier, qualifying has already been accounted for and given the appropriate weight according to how it influences the points.