2025 Japanese Grand Prix - Suzuka, April 04 - 06

[search]

Does anybody remember the tire strat last year for Leclerc? Did he go one stop while the others went for 2?

yeah, Leclerc changed tires when the race was red flagged early on, but it was essentially a one-stop

[Seanspeed]

Thanx @Mtths! It seems there will be rain showers during the whole day on Sunday.

Accuweather has it at a 25% chance for Sunday. But still, be on the lookout.

Japan's regional weather forecasting models are pretty accurate too (they have a supercomputer).
So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday.
It will warm up on Sunday and humidity will drop from 90% to around 49% by the time the race starts. Still, there is a 40% chance of rain during the race but it should be only spitting rain and go from overcast to partially sunny by 4pm and about 19 degrees Celsius.

There is no weather model robust enough, nor hardware powerful enough, to accurately determine regionalized precipitation five days ahead of time. If you think otherwise, you do not understand the complexity of weather systems.

At best you can get a very rough idea of whether rain might exist in that area on that day, but that's about it.

[ispano6]

Accuweather has it at a 25% chance for Sunday. But still, be on the lookout.

Japan's regional weather forecasting models are pretty accurate too (they have a supercomputer).
So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday.
It will warm up on Sunday and humidity will drop from 90% to around 49% by the time the race starts. Still, there is a 40% chance of rain during the race but it should be only spitting rain and go from overcast to partially sunny by 4pm and about 19 degrees Celsius.

There is no weather model robust enough, nor hardware powerful enough, to accurately determine regionalized precipitation five days ahead of time. If you think otherwise, you do not understand the complexity of weather systems.

At best you can get a very rough idea of whether rain might exist in that area on that day, but that's about it.

Ok Mr.weatherman, I just track the weather forecast daily, I don't swear by it from 10 days out. That you think I'm so stupid is more on you than it is on me. I'm pointing out a Japanese weather service that probably has more accuracy than a "western" service. And by the way, I do trust the Japanese weather service, it's pretty accurate from my experience, you know, being a person who has relied on it every time I've been in Japan.
I also question your understanding of weather prediction modelling based on the available data and your understanding of supercomputer capabilities.

In any case, you should follow this site.
https://tenki.jp/lite/forecast/5/27/531 ... 0days.html

[Seanspeed]

Japan's regional weather forecasting models are pretty accurate too (they have a supercomputer).
So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday.
It will warm up on Sunday and humidity will drop from 90% to around 49% by the time the race starts. Still, there is a 40% chance of rain during the race but it should be only spitting rain and go from overcast to partially sunny by 4pm and about 19 degrees Celsius.

There is no weather model robust enough, nor hardware powerful enough, to accurately determine regionalized precipitation five days ahead of time. If you think otherwise, you do not understand the complexity of weather systems.

At best you can get a very rough idea of whether rain might exist in that area on that day, but that's about it.

Ok Mr.weatherman, I just track the weather forecast daily, I don't swear by it from 10 days out. That you think I'm so stupid is more on you than it is on me. I'm pointing out a Japanese weather service that probably has more accuracy than a "western" service. And by the way, I do trust the Japanese weather service, it's pretty accurate from my experience, you know, being a person who has relied on it every time I've been in Japan.
I also question your understanding of weather prediction modelling based on the available data and your understanding of supercomputer capabilities.

In any case, you should follow this site.
https://tenki.jp/lite/forecast/5/27/531 ... 0days.html

I never called you stupid. You're like most people - simply uninformed. But it doesn't excuse you confidently stating things you dont really know much about. Your idea that Japanese weather models are magically so superior and worthy compared to western weather models that they can predict regionalized precipitation levels and on an hourly basis FIVE days out is outright laughable.

Any half-credible meteorologist will tell you that weather models are just far too complicated/chaotic to accurately project in any fine detail more than like two days out. And even within those two days, regionalized accuracy of actual precipitation systems is low, because the vast majority of storm systems are relatively small and highly dynamic. This is less applicable to general temperature predictions, because that usually exists as huge areas delineating the divides between weather fronts. Precipitation forecasts can literally be inaccurate 15 minutes beforehand, so to suggest they could be accurate 7200 minutes ahead of time(5 days) is insanity.

You can question me all you like, weather/climate has been a sort of hobby topic for me almost all my life. I literally wanted to be a meteorologist as a kid.

[venkyhere]

Guys, can we please stop with the 'treatise on weather prediction technology' and which member is the 'big dog' on this topic ; please ? for the sake of everyone else ?
Let's talk about the race.

[SB15]

Guys, can we please stop with the 'treatise on weather prediction technology' and which member is the 'big dog' on this topic ; please ? for the sake of everyone else ?
Let's talk about the race.

I agree, but let me ask; is anyone else jumping on the Tsunoda and Ferrari hype train this weekend? Because I ain’t

[Seanspeed]

Guys, can we please stop with the 'treatise on weather prediction technology' and which member is the 'big dog' on this topic ; please ? for the sake of everyone else ?
Let's talk about the race.

My whole point is to try and make talk about the weekend(and all subsequent weekends) better, not about who is the 'big dog' on the topic. This person was making confident claims about what the rain situation WILL be five days ahead of the race. I think for people who dont understand better, it's very much worth having somebody pop in an make it clear that such overly confidently stated claims aren't actually worth much at all.

This is a discussion board, no?

[Mansell89]

McLaren were strong here last year before their big upgrades.

Their front end looks electric and I’d be amazed (but pleasantly surprised from a title fight point of view) if they don’t dominate this weekend.

What tyre compounds do we have this weekend?

EDIT- just seen in OP.