2025 Japanese Grand Prix - Suzuka, April 04 - 06

[search]

Does anybody remember the tire strat last year for Leclerc? Did he go one stop while the others went for 2?

yeah, Leclerc changed tires when the race was red flagged early on, but it was essentially a one-stop

[Seanspeed]

Thanx @Mtths! It seems there will be rain showers during the whole day on Sunday.

Accuweather has it at a 25% chance for Sunday. But still, be on the lookout.

Japan's regional weather forecasting models are pretty accurate too (they have a supercomputer).
So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday.
It will warm up on Sunday and humidity will drop from 90% to around 49% by the time the race starts. Still, there is a 40% chance of rain during the race but it should be only spitting rain and go from overcast to partially sunny by 4pm and about 19 degrees Celsius.

There is no weather model robust enough, nor hardware powerful enough, to accurately determine regionalized precipitation five days ahead of time. If you think otherwise, you do not understand the complexity of weather systems.

At best you can get a very rough idea of whether rain might exist in that area on that day, but that's about it.

[ispano6]

Accuweather has it at a 25% chance for Sunday. But still, be on the lookout.

Japan's regional weather forecasting models are pretty accurate too (they have a supercomputer).
So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday.
It will warm up on Sunday and humidity will drop from 90% to around 49% by the time the race starts. Still, there is a 40% chance of rain during the race but it should be only spitting rain and go from overcast to partially sunny by 4pm and about 19 degrees Celsius.

There is no weather model robust enough, nor hardware powerful enough, to accurately determine regionalized precipitation five days ahead of time. If you think otherwise, you do not understand the complexity of weather systems.

At best you can get a very rough idea of whether rain might exist in that area on that day, but that's about it.

Ok Mr.weatherman, I just track the weather forecast daily, I don't swear by it from 10 days out. That you think I'm so stupid is more on you than it is on me. I'm pointing out a Japanese weather service that probably has more accuracy than a "western" service. And by the way, I do trust the Japanese weather service, it's pretty accurate from my experience, you know, being a person who has relied on it every time I've been in Japan.
I also question your understanding of weather prediction modelling based on the available data and your understanding of supercomputer capabilities.

In any case, you should follow this site.
https://tenki.jp/lite/forecast/5/27/531 ... 0days.html

[Seanspeed]

Japan's regional weather forecasting models are pretty accurate too (they have a supercomputer).
So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday.
It will warm up on Sunday and humidity will drop from 90% to around 49% by the time the race starts. Still, there is a 40% chance of rain during the race but it should be only spitting rain and go from overcast to partially sunny by 4pm and about 19 degrees Celsius.

There is no weather model robust enough, nor hardware powerful enough, to accurately determine regionalized precipitation five days ahead of time. If you think otherwise, you do not understand the complexity of weather systems.

At best you can get a very rough idea of whether rain might exist in that area on that day, but that's about it.

Ok Mr.weatherman, I just track the weather forecast daily, I don't swear by it from 10 days out. That you think I'm so stupid is more on you than it is on me. I'm pointing out a Japanese weather service that probably has more accuracy than a "western" service. And by the way, I do trust the Japanese weather service, it's pretty accurate from my experience, you know, being a person who has relied on it every time I've been in Japan.
I also question your understanding of weather prediction modelling based on the available data and your understanding of supercomputer capabilities.

In any case, you should follow this site.
https://tenki.jp/lite/forecast/5/27/531 ... 0days.html

I never called you stupid. You're like most people - simply uninformed. But it doesn't excuse you confidently stating things you dont really know much about. Your idea that Japanese weather models are magically so superior and worthy compared to western weather models that they can predict regionalized precipitation levels and on an hourly basis FIVE days out is outright laughable.

Any half-credible meteorologist will tell you that weather models are just far too complicated/chaotic to accurately project in any fine detail more than like two days out. And even within those two days, regionalized accuracy of actual precipitation systems is low, because the vast majority of storm systems are relatively small and highly dynamic. This is less applicable to general temperature predictions, because that usually exists as huge areas delineating the divides between weather fronts. Precipitation forecasts can literally be inaccurate 15 minutes beforehand, so to suggest they could be accurate 7200 minutes ahead of time(5 days) is insanity.

You can question me all you like, weather/climate has been a sort of hobby topic for me almost all my life. I literally wanted to be a meteorologist as a kid.

[venkyhere]

Guys, can we please stop with the 'treatise on weather prediction technology' and which member is the 'big dog' on this topic ; please ? for the sake of everyone else ?
Let's talk about the race.

[SB15]

Guys, can we please stop with the 'treatise on weather prediction technology' and which member is the 'big dog' on this topic ; please ? for the sake of everyone else ?
Let's talk about the race.

I agree, but let me ask; is anyone else jumping on the Tsunoda and Ferrari hype train this weekend? Because I ain’t

[Seanspeed]

Guys, can we please stop with the 'treatise on weather prediction technology' and which member is the 'big dog' on this topic ; please ? for the sake of everyone else ?
Let's talk about the race.

My whole point is to try and make talk about the weekend(and all subsequent weekends) better, not about who is the 'big dog' on the topic. This person was making confident claims about what the rain situation WILL be five days ahead of the race. I think for people who dont understand better, it's very much worth having somebody pop in an make it clear that such overly confidently stated claims aren't actually worth much at all.

This is a discussion board, no?

[Mansell89]

McLaren were strong here last year before their big upgrades.

Their front end looks electric and I’d be amazed (but pleasantly surprised from a title fight point of view) if they don’t dominate this weekend.

What tyre compounds do we have this weekend?

EDIT- just seen in OP.

[Luscion]

Rear Wings for Japanese GP

[AR3-GP]

Rear Wings for Japanese GP

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnlOTCFaYAA ... name=large

Same as China for all

Wing levels

[ispano6]

Guys, can we please stop with the 'treatise on weather prediction technology' and which member is the 'big dog' on this topic ; please ? for the sake of everyone else ?
Let's talk about the race.

My whole point is to try and make talk about the weekend(and all subsequent weekends) better, not about who is the 'big dog' on the topic. This person was making confident claims about what the rain situation WILL be five days ahead of the race. I think for people who dont understand better, it's very much worth having somebody pop in an make it clear that such overly confidently stated claims aren't actually worth much at all.

This is a discussion board, no?

You can think whatever you like, I just follow the forecast. The fact that you doubt the forecast makes me think you probably weren't fit to be a meteorologist. Carry on, wayward son.
How I stated the forecast at he time:
"So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday. "

[ali623]

McLaren were strong here last year before their big upgrades.

Their front end looks electric and I’d be amazed (but pleasantly surprised from a title fight point of view) if they don’t dominate this weekend.

What tyre compounds do we have this weekend?

EDIT- just seen in OP.

They didn't look that strong here last year? Norris finished 5th and Piastri 8th. Not that it matters, as it should be an easy 1-2 this year.

[basti313]

You can think whatever you like, I just follow the forecast. The fact that you doubt the forecast makes me think you probably weren't fit to be a meteorologist. Carry on, wayward son.
How I stated the forecast at he time:
"So far, it looks like a dry-ish race day but ~2mm of overnight showers between Sat and Sunday. "

I am not really sure, why you are on some topics reacting so emotional, borderline accusations again. This has really nothing to do with where you are, where you are from and who you are. This is just math.
As this comes every race thread let me point a word from someone who learned this in the past:
- For global nummerical models they use different models, the US GFS or EU ECMWF are most used. Of course the result strongly depends on what they put in as starting points, but there is no big difference in the quality all over the world (as they come from the same sources). Still these offer only up to 50% accuracy on the chance of rain and +-2°C on temperature after three days just by the divergence of results of inputs within their confidence band. Being a american, russian or lithuanian wheather service...the chance of getting this global wheather models right is the same for everyone, everywhere in the world.
- Local fine wheather forecast is done with models like WRF, which is the most used one outside of the US. Japan uses GSM, their own system. BUT if you look at the mentioned AccuWheather: They use the GSM data done in Japan if you look at a forecast for Japan. The problem is, that these forecasts use the GFS data. Means they go into their calculation after three days with an uncertainty of already 50% on the rain. This is just nonsense. Depending on when they run the cal, which GFS input they use...it is just arbitrary results.

I would even say, that most reliable systems drop in a lot of statistical data instead of "forecasting" to correct the "forecast" after three days. So forget calculation, at some point it is better to check what was the wheather in the last 10 years on this day...

[Vettel165]

Yeah no rain on friday, saturday or sunday near the race. Just a strong night shower from saturday to sunday.

[deadhead]

I know it’s trivial but ever since Apple bought darksky and integrated into iOS the weather app on there has been quite reliable for me and for most races.



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