2017 Hungarian Grand Prix - Hungaroring, 28-30 July

[BanMeToo]

From my armchair, I think the cars make too much power for turn 11 to be flat.

[godlameroso]

High temperatures over the weekend are expected to be 29C, that's uncommonly cool for the time of year. Clear weather, so track temperatures will be quite high, I think this race may be a two stop, the SS tire won't make it more than 30 laps if at all, by lap 20 the pace will start dropping off more than the fuel effect can compensate for. The Soft tire can probably last 40 laps tops but will be marginal, and it's pace will start tailing off by lap 30. So I suppose a one stop is possible but will require tire management, and it may be faster overall to just two stop and push the whole way. If the gain from two stopping is more than 1.2 seconds per lap over those last 20 laps it could work, however passing on this track is quite difficult.

[kalinka]

As I know the local climate quite well > The tricky thing could be that Friday should be much cooler than Sunday (24C+clouds+wind vs 30C clear), so in terms of race simulation they can't get too much useful data on tyre wear in Friday.
FP3 should be very busy for the teams because of the more similar conditions.
Of course this is only based on forecast and my personal exp - take it with a pinch of salt.
My gut feeling is that we can see even higher temps comes Sunday.

[TAG]

take it with a pinch of salt.

I'm going to take it with a bit of Hungarian paprika.

[godlameroso]

As I know the local climate quite well > The tricky thing could be that Friday should be much cooler than Sunday (24C+clouds+wind vs 30C clear), so in terms of race simulation they can't get too much useful data on tyre wear in Friday.
FP3 should be very busy for the teams because of the more similar conditions.
Of course this is only based on forecast and my personal exp - take it with a pinch of salt.
My gut feeling is that we can see even higher temps comes Sunday.

Hungaroring is one of those tracks that changes wildly throughout the weekend, as it rubbers in, and the dust clears. Often teams chase the track evolution but can't quite follow it. What can happen is that the car feels well balanced at one point, but unbalanced the next, and the car handling becomes ruined attempting to re-balance it. The thing that hurts the most is oversteer, you need absolute faith in the car to put the power down through the vast majority of corners. Without it you'll be timid on throttle and lose a bunch of time.

Some teams will start with a slightly understeer setup, and hope the balance improves as the track wears in, they'll try to be ahead of the track evolution.

Either way is a gamble. The Austria race started sunny and warm and very high track temperatures and the clouds changed the balance drastically. So these Pirellis are quite sensitive to track temperature changes. At least Saturday and Sunday will be similar, so I completely agree with you, maybe save part of fp3 for some long runs, and work through the regular program on Friday.

[GoranF1]

As I know the local climate quite well > The tricky thing could be that Friday should be much cooler than Sunday (24C+clouds+wind vs 30C clear), so in terms of race simulation they can't get too much useful data on tyre wear in Friday.
FP3 should be very busy for the teams because of the more similar conditions.
Of course this is only based on forecast and my personal exp - take it with a pinch of salt.
My gut feeling is that we can see even higher temps comes Sunday.

Hungaroring is one of those tracks that changes wildly throughout the weekend, as it rubbers in, and the dust clears. Often teams chase the track evolution but can't quite follow it. What can happen is that the car feels well balanced at one point, but unbalanced the next, and the car handling becomes ruined attempting to re-balance it. The thing that hurts the most is oversteer, you need absolute faith in the car to put the power down through the vast majority of corners. Without it you'll be timid on throttle and lose a bunch of time.

Some teams will start with a slightly understeer setup, and hope the balance improves as the track wears in, they'll try to be ahead of the track evolution.

Either way is a gamble. The Austria race started sunny and warm and very high track temperatures and the clouds changed the balance drastically. So these Pirellis are quite sensitive to track temperature changes. At least Saturday and Sunday will be similar, so I completely agree with you, maybe save part of fp3 for some long runs, and work through the regular program on Friday.

what is the gap you expect Mclaren to have compared to Mercedes?

[godlameroso]

I don't know, hard to say, hopefully under 2 seconds, the gap in Monaco was around 1.3, but it's highly unlikely it'll be that close here. If I had to guess I'd say around 1.6 seconds more or less, or as close as 1.2 best case scenario, but I doubt it. I don't think the chassis is as good as they say it is.

With the same chassis and setup along with a 60kW deficit, the gap would be ~1.2, so anything over that is down to the chassis.

[GoranF1]

I don't know, hard to say, hopefully under 2 seconds, the gap in Monaco was around 1.3, but it's highly unlikely it'll be that close here. If I had to guess I'd say around 1.6 seconds more or less, or as close as 1.2 best case scenario, but I doubt it. I don't think the chassis is as good as they say it is.

With the same chassis and setup along with a 60kW deficit, the gap would be ~1.2, so anything over that is down to the chassis.

So thats 1.2 minus 0.6 from Alonso....P6 in Q3...

[godlameroso]

If they're under a second off they'd be ahead of Red Bull, I'm not so sure that's possible.

[GoranF1]

If they're under a second off they'd be ahead of Red Bull, I'm not so sure that's possible.

RB will be ahead of Ferrari in Budapest.

[Zynerji]

If they're under a second off they'd be ahead of Red Bull, I'm not so sure that's possible.

RB will be ahead of Ferrari in Budapest.

I think Ferrari are going to surprise alot of people here, as well as Singapore.

[Manoah2u]

Ferrari is undoubtedly closing in on grid penalties with their engine and gearbox lifespans. The question will be, when are they going to go and risk getting penalties? The season is just half done, and in the WDC they're more or less tied with Mercedes [Ham], so there's room for a few blows still. But in the WCC they're slipping behind fast, so it's actually becoming a neccesity to get potential worries out of the way so you can benefit when it matters.

That means if during Hungary, RB is looking to be very strong, and Mercedes too, then perhaps you should concede with getting some grid penalties. If the chances are you're going to finish 4th or 5th either way, then better get that out of the way, as they're still fast enough in any case to reach between p4-p6 anyway after taking penalties. Perhaps they'll even get lucky and something happens in front.

The other option is to keep pushing at the limit, and still ending up p4, p5, the same growing difference in the WCC standings, and Hamilton slowly stepping in front of Vettel in the WDC in Hungary and Spa, and then reaching home soil in Italy and needing a grid penalty either way and starting from at best p8 at the start, with little possibility to somehow even end up on the podium.

It would thus be better to serve some penalties in a tactical manner, take it on the chest, manage to get the most out of Hungary and SPA, and then when reaching Italy, you'll have fresh engine to use and perhaps even 'up the wick' alittle and start from P3 the least - perhaps even a P2 or Pole is possible - and then give it all to grab a guaranteed podium or hopefully even beat the Mercs and get P1 [and P2!].
The way Ferrari are doing things now won't get them there. so something must happen, and it must happen fast.

You don't want to have grid penalties in Monza [home crowd], Singapore [risky track], COTA [ i think Favours Ferrari this year] and Mexico [even last year they did rather well there], and then slap yourself in the face when your competitors make errors or get problems which gets you close instead of way ahead in the race.

[dans79]

The way Ferrari are doing things now won't get them there. so something must happen, and it must happen fast.

You don't want to have grid penalties in Monza [home crowd], Singapore [risky track], COTA [ i think Favours Ferrari this year] and Mexico [even last year they did rather well there], and then slap yourself in the face when your competitors make errors or get problems which gets you close instead of way ahead in the race.

They must be careful with the tires as well. Based on what happened in Silverstone, they are obviously pushing the tires to the limit, and they need to avoid another Spa 2015, or Austria 2016!

[TAG]

Every article I read is about team X being optimistic about their chances in Hungary. We might wind up with 8 people on the podium!

[Manoah2u]

The way Ferrari are doing things now won't get them there. so something must happen, and it must happen fast.

You don't want to have grid penalties in Monza [home crowd], Singapore [risky track], COTA [ i think Favours Ferrari this year] and Mexico [even last year they did rather well there], and then slap yourself in the face when your competitors make errors or get problems which gets you close instead of way ahead in the race.

They must be careful with the tires as well. Based on what happened in Silverstone, they are obviously pushing the tires to the limit, and they need to avoid another Spa 2015, or Austria 2016!

Agreed.
More teams were complaining, but only Ferrari exceeded the limits, with both cars fcol.
RB immediately sent Max into the pits to avoid having a similar fortune, though i really do wonder whether he could not have actually managed to finish on the set he had.

IIRC he had big enough a buffer behind him [and then try to pass Max] to have the freedom of 'taking it down a notch', and though i don't remember fully, i'm not sure whether he actually was behind someone except for Kimi - who went into the pit in front of him. Then again, he would have overtaken kimi if he stayed out but i'm fairly certain kimi quickly would have passed him with ease on fresh tires so scratch that thinking anyway.

there wasn't anything in particular from an exterior cause [puncture through debris fe] that caused the tires to give right? in other words - it was ferrari themselves to blame? so, tactics. i'm also fairly sure Vettel's flat spot by his braking lockup had a big fault in this. but is Ferrari really pushing THAT hard then to keep up with Mercedes and still not manage?

where did their performance go? is it really the oil burning?
FIA also stated they're going to intensify scrutineering on oil burning. could bring some interesting results.