COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[NL_Fer]

It seems that Italian fashion companies with ties to Hubei manufacturing industry has caused the Milan area got the virus directly from China around Januari. After that European spring/skiing holidays has spread the virus around the continent beginning of Februari. Finally carnaval festivals has increased the local spread.

In next weeks we will see a peak from the spread between last week of Februari and the lockdown measures in several countries. If not, we are doomed.

[nzjrs]

A longer version of my previous link about Italian demographics and the case fatality rate. https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/c ... 200a15a7bf

Warning : 1) written by an economist (PhD) 2) is a blog post

[AMG.Tzan]

Baku also set to be postponed...that shows that they don't expect the situation to get any better come June! That's so negative for the future...but it's only the truth! I don't see the season ever getting started...i'm just thinking how much time it'll take before any government or health organization can trust that the problem is over...even if it is truly over! It will take some time before people will trust anyone and go ahead with big gatherings and so on even when the problem truly will be over!

[mmred]

It seems that Italian fashion companies with ties to Hubei manufacturing industry has caused the Milan area got the virus directly from China around Januari. After that European spring/skiing holidays has spread the virus around the continent beginning of Februari. Finally carnaval festivals has increased the local spread.

In next weeks we will see a peak from the spread between last week of Februari and the lockdown measures in several countries. If not, we are doomed.

That explains the higher contagion rate, that sadly is now peeking everywhere

But the higher mortality rate is still a puzzle, and i repeat it was higher much before the overload of the healthcare in that Italian region started

I am at home to manage the overload after all, as everyone i suppose

[mmred]

Baku also set to be postponed...that shows that they don't expect the situation to get any better come June! That's so negative for the future...but it's only the truth! I don't see the season ever getting started...i'm just thinking how much time it'll take before any government or health organization can trust that the problem is over...even if it is truly over! It will take some time before people will trust anyone and go ahead with big gatherings and so on even when the problem truly will be over!

Only vaccine can stop the quarantine
Or a good antiviral

[PlatinumZealot]

Highly unlikely.

I bet my cents on experts

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.corrie ... 0_amp.html

Bollocks. They've been sequencing ncov19 continually since it's outbreak and this quote doesn't even deserve to be called a hypothesis. The data is already more or less there if he wanted to actually do some science.

His "hypothesis" is also challenged in the very same article you posted too.

Anyway, here is another theory I haven't seen posted yet, or at least a quantification of the "unhealthy / older" Italian demographics:

That graph can be misleading. Because it is already known in athletics that people in colder climates tend to have increased breathing ability or what ever term you want to call it. But is has nothing to do with health of the lungs itself.

[Phil]

But the higher mortality rate is still a puzzle, and i repeat it was higher much before the overload of the healthcare in that Italian region started

Adding to my last post, let me also add that how countries count has a profound effect on the CFR.

Take Switzerland; we have a very good health system - yet according to the numbers, we have a much higher CFR than Germany.

This has a few reasons: we’ve been hit earlier than Germany (and relative to the total of our popuation way more are infected) and two; we are only counting severe cases, e.g. people with severe symptoms. All other people are advised to stay home, even with symptoms. This, and the fact, that our country, as like many others, are limited in their ability on how many can be tested.

To be tested, you need tests and you need staff. Then you need these results to trickle through the system until they are published until they end up on a tracker. Our country/government is advising only severe cases to test, in an effort to decrease load on the health system.

[nzjrs]

I bet my cents on experts

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.corrie ... 0_amp.html

Bollocks. They've been sequencing ncov19 continually since it's outbreak and this quote doesn't even deserve to be called a hypothesis. The data is already more or less there if he wanted to actually do some science.

His "hypothesis" is also challenged in the very same article you posted too.

Anyway, here is another theory I haven't seen posted yet, or at least a quantification of the "unhealthy / older" Italian demographics:

That graph can be misleading. Because it is already known in athletics that people in colder climates tend to have increased breathing ability or what ever term you want to call it. But is has nothing to do with health of the lungs itself.

Perhaps, economists lol. The tweet three under at least attempts to control for a few other factors (also see followup article)

[Big Tea]

Baku also set to be postponed...that shows that they don't expect the situation to get any better come June! That's so negative for the future...but it's only the truth! I don't see the season ever getting started...i'm just thinking how much time it'll take before any government or health organization can trust that the problem is over...even if it is truly over! It will take some time before people will trust anyone and go ahead with big gatherings and so on even when the problem truly will be over!

Only vaccine can stop the quarantine
Or a good antiviral

I know it is at 'child level' but this is a good vid on vaccine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSuxVwMkcpA

[Ringleheim]

Baku also set to be postponed...that shows that they don't expect the situation to get any better come June! That's so negative for the future...but it's only the truth! I don't see the season ever getting started...i'm just thinking how much time it'll take before any government or health organization can trust that the problem is over...even if it is truly over! It will take some time before people will trust anyone and go ahead with big gatherings and so on even when the problem truly will be over!

EURO 2020 has been pushed back a year and now we are starting to see real pressure placed on the IOC and Japan to postpone or flat out cancel the games in Tokyo. I think they will be cancelled eventually.

There isn't going to be an F1 season this year unless they completely re-invent their calendar system and the "end of year" time frame, etc.

I.E., they could possibly have some sort of unusual season that starts late in the year and runs through the winter into 2021.

But there's no way the world situation will be sufficient to have regular F1 racing this summer, for example.

[Jambier]

Baku also set to be postponed...that shows that they don't expect the situation to get any better come June! That's so negative for the future...but it's only the truth! I don't see the season ever getting started...i'm just thinking how much time it'll take before any government or health organization can trust that the problem is over...even if it is truly over! It will take some time before people will trust anyone and go ahead with big gatherings and so on even when the problem truly will be over!

EURO 2020 has been pushed back a year and now we are starting to see real pressure placed on the IOC and Japan to postpone or flat out cancel the games in Tokyo. I think they will be cancelled eventually.

There isn't going to be an F1 season this year unless they completely re-invent their calendar system and the "end of year" time frame, etc.

I.E., they could possibly have some sort of unusual season that starts late in the year and runs through the winter into 2021.

But there's no way the world situation will be sufficient to have regular F1 racing this summer, for example.

I agree

As they already told that 2021 cars will keep 2020 chassis (so no new car dev), I think the wiser thing for now it to think about a 2020-2021 season

Begin it in September/Late august, finishing it in October 2021, letting team time to rest and finish they new regulation car for 2022

[izzy]

I'm a bit switched off from covid-19 but Sky are running a piece saying UK deaths are on the same trajectory as Italy and Spain, so far

[timbo]

It looks like Japan will cancel/pospone Olympics, which itself is not very surprising.
It would be interesting to see whether the reported numbers for infected people begins to quickly rise after that.

[Wouter]

I'm a bit switched off from covid-19 but Sky are running a piece saying UK deaths are on the same trajectory as Italy and Spain, so far

See London's Richmond Park.

[CMSMJ1]

^^ That's not quite apples and oranges though. Would be better to view the Central Park (outdoors) vs one of the London Parks ((outdoors)

I live near the Peak District in UK - as on my MTB this weekend and it was heaving in the car parks and "hubs" as I passed on by.

Some bloody stupid people out there who are not getting the very obvious point that you need to stay away from people and manage your life as if you are a carrier of this disease.