2022 pecking order speculation

[Ryar]

Mercedes will run away in 2022. They did the 2022 engine test in 2021 car and they already fired the 2022 engine earlier. Hence Mercedes the team to beat again in 2022.

What kind of 2022 engine test did Mercedes do in 2021 car? Did they use 10% bio fuel with the engine as mandated by next year's regulation? Is there any news about how reliable their combustion is with new bio fuel mix? They had big time issues with reliability and it is possible that the reason why they have fired up the new engine (is that new or 2021 engine in W13? ) is to test if that is reliable? Honda was the most reliable engine in 2021, because of that, they can focus on finding performance, rather than worrying about reliability, so it's possible they are in no hurry to fire up 2022 engine.

Besides Mercedes started their work on 2021 car way earlier than anyone else as they had a dominant car 2020. That didn't help them continue their dominance. No one knows which philosophy works better in 2022, low rake or high rake. There are no complex bargeboards that worked so well for Mercedes. Now they have to play around with vanilla aero surfaces.

Imagine if Honda was focused on 2022 engine, all through 2021 due their supremely high reliability and Mercedes having distracted to fix reliability, causing Honda to come out with more powerful engine than Mercedes, which is entirely plausible with the kind of advancement Honda has made in the last couple of years.

If High rake proves to be another winning philosophy with the ground effects regulations, which Mercedes hasn't managed to conquer yet, then imagine who would be behind. Honda power and Newey ground effect chassis can potentially lead the way.

The most important factor is Budget cap. Unlike in the past years, Mercedes can't throw over half a billion to make their car faster. So let's see how that plays. Red Bull and Ferrari have their sister/customer teams to play with budget/CFD/wind tunnel utilization and Mercedes does not have any.

I can even bet on Ferrari dominating if they have worked some magic, away from all the pressure and limelight of 2021.

[LM10]

If High rake proves to be another winning philosophy with the ground effects regulations, which Mercedes hasn't managed to conquer yet, then imagine who would be behind. Honda power and Newey ground effect chassis can potentially lead the way.

Newey about the new cars: "By nature, the angle of attack will be less. We're talking about some kind of Venturi car here. And they have to drive as close as possible over the road to take advantage of the ground effect. You will certainly not see more cars that are as tall in the back as they are today."

[Stu]

I read that the same as Lewis when he says “Bonno, my tyres are shot”…..

It could be a classic piece of mis-direction.
The cars have been using ground-effect for years now.

[LM10]

I read that the same as Lewis when he says “Bonno, my tyres are shot”…..

It could be a classic piece of mis-direction.
The cars have been using ground-effect for years now.

Thinking of Venturi effect and Bernoulli’s principle it does make sense that being as close as possible over the ground will make you generate more downforce.

On another note, seems like the suspension work and driving style will be even more key as riding/jumping over the curbs might result in a sudden and significant loss of downforce. In fact, this was one of the major reasons ground effect was banned back then.

[Csmith1980]

Mercedes will run away in 2022. They did the 2022 engine test in 2021 car and they already fired the 2022 engine earlier. Hence Mercedes the team to beat again in 2022.

What kind of 2022 engine test did Mercedes do in 2021 car? Did they use 10% bio fuel with the engine as mandated by next year's regulation? Is there any news about how reliable their combustion is with new bio fuel mix? They had big time issues with reliability and it is possible that the reason why they have fired up the new engine (is that new or 2021 engine in W13? ) is to test if that is reliable? Honda was the most reliable engine in 2021, because of that, they can focus on finding performance, rather than worrying about reliability, so it's possible they are in no hurry to fire up 2022 engine.

Besides Mercedes started their work on 2021 car way earlier than anyone else as they had a dominant car 2020. That didn't help them continue their dominance. No one knows which philosophy works better in 2022, low rake or high rake. There are no complex bargeboards that worked so well for Mercedes. Now they have to play around with vanilla aero surfaces.

Imagine if Honda was focused on 2022 engine, all through 2021 due their supremely high reliability and Mercedes having distracted to fix reliability, causing Honda to come out with more powerful engine than Mercedes, which is entirely plausible with the kind of advancement Honda has made in the last couple of years.

If High rake proves to be another winning philosophy with the ground effects regulations, which Mercedes hasn't managed to conquer yet, then imagine who would be behind. Honda power and Newey ground effect chassis can potentially lead the way.

The most important factor is Budget cap. Unlike in the past years, Mercedes can't throw over half a billion to make their car faster. So let's see how that plays. Red Bull and Ferrari have their sister/customer teams to play with budget/CFD/wind tunnel utilization and Mercedes does not have any.

I can even bet on Ferrari dominating if they have worked some magic, away from all the pressure and limelight of 2021.

Considering Newey himself has said the high rake philosophy won’t work with the 2022 regs what make you think it will?

Mercedes literally had one upgrade chassis/aero upgrade in 2021 while RB were almost continuously developing yet merc still won the WCC, all done without throwing “half a billion” at their car too make it faster.

Could Aston be considered a sister/customer team too Mercedes?

[jacobianminkowski]

What kind of 2022 engine test did Mercedes do in 2021 car? Did they use 10% bio fuel with the engine as mandated by next year's regulation? Is there any news about how reliable their combustion is with new bio fuel mix? They had big time issues with reliability and it is possible that the reason why they have fired up the new engine (is that new or 2021 engine in W13? ) is to test if that is reliable? Honda was the most reliable engine in 2021, because of that, they can focus on finding performance, rather than worrying about reliability, so it's possible they are in no hurry to fire up 2022 engine.

I think its possible that Mercedes engine reliability problems are from turning up the engine to keep up with the Redbulls.

[Ryar]

Considering Newey himself has said the high rake philosophy won’t work with the 2022 regs what make you think it will?

Can you quote an article where you read that? Curious to know.

Mercedes literally had one upgrade chassis/aero upgrade in 2021 while RB were almost continuously developing yet merc still won the WCC, all done without throwing “half a billion” at their car too make it faster.

Did you account for the points loss induced by Mercedes on Red Bull in Silverstone and Hungary and the resultant grid penalties for Max and Checo. Who knows if that wasn't the case, RB would have taken both titles.

Could Aston be considered a sister/customer team too Mercedes?

Question is, does Lawrence wants to be that Guinea pig, considering they are poaching resources from both RB and Merc and are ambitious of winning titles themselves in the near future, unlike AT and Haas. Will they be willing to let go wind tunnel time to help Mercedes? If yes, then good for Mercedes and if not, then good luck Mercedes.

[JordanMugen]

Until testing, picking the top team is going to be a bit of a lottery.

I'll fix that for you:
Until qualifying, picking the top team is going to be a bit of a lottery.

Even then there are qualifiers on that (pardon the pun), such as "wait until we get to a more representative circuit". It's happened so many times that a team has been quick in testing yet mediocre in the competitive sessions, or vice versa, and even free practice times are similarly worthless.

Remember, for instance, the fuss over McLaren's fancy rear suspension which didn't amount to anything in the end: https://www.racecar-engineering.com/new ... n-illegal/

[lio007]

I don't get it why I'm reading so often that RB had so much more updates than e.g. Merc. Yes, in the first part of the season they pushed quite hard (for sure more than Merc) but with the updated barge boards in Austria and a small floor-update in Spa i can't remember anything significant!
Afterwards it was just track-specific: tiny RW in Monza, bigger cooling in Mexico...but other teams did the same.
Or have I missed something?

[Csmith1980]

Considering Newey himself has said the high rake philosophy won’t work with the 2022 regs what make you think it will?

Can you quote an article where you read that? Curious to know.

Mercedes literally had one upgrade chassis/aero upgrade in 2021 while RB were almost continuously developing yet merc still won the WCC, all done without throwing “half a billion” at their car too make it faster.

Did you account for the points loss induced by Mercedes on Red Bull in Silverstone and Hungary and the resultant grid penalties for Max and Checo. Who knows if that wasn't the case, RB would have taken both titles.

Could Aston be considered a sister/customer team too Mercedes?

Question is, does Lawrence wants to be that Guinea pig, considering they are poaching resources from both RB and Merc and are ambitious of winning titles themselves in the near future, unlike AT and Haas. Will they be willing to let go wind tunnel time to help Mercedes? If yes, then good for Mercedes and if not, then good luck Mercedes.

“ Newey: By nature, the angle of attack will be lower. We are talking about a kind of Venturi car here. And they have to drive as close as possible above the road to take advantage of the ground effect. You will certainly not see more cars that are as high in the back as they are today.”
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... 2er-autos/

Why does everything always come back to silverstone with Redbull fans . We can all play the same what aboutism game but the undeniable fact is, Mercedes won the WCC while investing minimal recourses into the W12.

Doesn’t both Mercedes and Wolff own shares in Aston? Aston have shared the same philosophy as Mercedes the past couple of season and purchase those parts which can be shared amongst teams from Mercedes. I wasn’t aware of Aston “poaching resources” from Redbull.

[Wouter]

Mercedes won the WCC while investing minimal recourses into the W12.

.
Don't you think Mercedes made it to the WCC because it took Perez a really long time to adapt to the RB16B and got low rankings (less points) and because Mercedes used a new ICE every time, which allowed them to use a lot more power?

[Stu]

To be fair, I think that the budget cap should include the engine allowance. If Williams (for example) overuse their allocation - for whatever reason - does their engine bill increase? Yes! That affects their operations budget (even if it doesn’t affect the budget cap) and needs to be accounted for.
So why should a ‘works’ team get a free-pass? They could, in theory, operate the power unit such that it will last two races (before going into the ‘free practice’ engine pool), provided that they take the grid penalty that goes with each subsequent power unit change and complete the season having used 12 power units. THIS is an unfair advantage, that would openly flout the power unit restriction rules, but meet the letter of the regulations (as they serve the penalty).

[Csmith1980]

Mercedes won the WCC while investing minimal recourses into the W12.

.
Don't you think Mercedes made it to the WCC because it took Perez a really long time to adapt to the RB16B and got low rankings (less points) and because Mercedes used a new ICE every time, which allowed them to use a lot more power?

Mercedes used a new ICE “every time”? let’s not over exaggerate, and let’s not pretend Honda couldn’t have done the same.
Perez finished in the top 6 in all but 1 of his first 9 races. RB, sacrificed a points score for Perez in silverstone and Mercedes sacrificed Bottas to test ICE upgrades.
None of which changes the undeniable fact Mercedes won the WCC with minimum investment in the W12

[Csmith1980]

To be fair, I think that the budget cap should include the engine allowance. If Williams (for example) overuse their allocation - for whatever reason - does their engine bill increase? Yes! That affects their operations budget (even if it doesn’t affect the budget cap) and needs to be accounted for.
So why should a ‘works’ team get a free-pass? They could, in theory, operate the power unit such that it will last two races (before going into the ‘free practice’ engine pool), provided that they take the grid penalty that goes with each subsequent power unit change and complete the season having used 12 power units. THIS is an unfair advantage, that would openly flout the power unit restriction rules, but meet the letter of the regulations (as they serve the penalty).

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t customer engine supply deals capped at £15m.

[Wouter]

Mercedes won the WCC while investing minimal recourses into the W12.

.
Don't you think Mercedes made it to the WCC because it took Perez a really long time to adapt to the RB16B and got low rankings (less points) and because Mercedes used a new ICE every time, which allowed them to use a lot more power?

Mercedes used a new ICE “every time”? let’s not over exaggerate, and let’s not pretend Honda couldn’t have done the same.
Perez finished in the top 6 in all but 1 of his first 9 races. RB, sacrificed a points score for Perez in silverstone and Mercedes sacrificed Bottas to test ICE upgrades.
None of which changes the undeniable fact Mercedes won the WCC with minimum investment in the W12

.
Due to the cost savings, the teams were only allowed to use 3 PUs this season, so they had to develop very reliable PUs.
Honda kept that promise and without the Silverstone PU, which they had to replace, they could have easily run all races with 3 PU. This has been confirmed by Honda. So they had done their best >>>> 3 reliable PU for the whole season.
However, Mercedes did not keep to the agreement and has used a new ICE several times in order to release more power.
That is very unsportsmanlike and was not agreed upon. Most other teams can't do that either because of the budget cap.
The Japanese always keep to the agreement, because why is it agreed otherwise?

Mercedes may have won the WCC with minimum investment in the W12, but they have put all the more money into the engines, which is much more important for speed with all those high speed tracks this year.

Oh, and as for Perez? Why do you only name the first 9 races?

5 -11 -4 -5 -4 -1 -3 -4 -6 -16S -DNF -19 -8 -5 -9 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -DNF -15†

It took him 15 races to feel well in the car. That cost the team a lot of points.