Malaysian GP 2011 - Sepang

[andrew]

Agreed. A pool of the same people would be better than it changing at each race.

Already we have seen drivers pulled up in qualifying at the last race for blocking, which they were correctly repremanded for yet on previous occasions 5 place grid penalties or fines have been given out. The lack of consistency is really annoying!

[WhiteBlue]

A couple of people on this thread are saying that Ferrari might be able to jump to Mclaren's level and be the second fastest car. I think that in Malaysia we will still see a strong RBR-Vettel combination with Ferrari certainly in second position.

The betting money thinks different and I agree with it. I don't think that Ferrari will be the second fastest car this weekend.

[andrew]

I respectfully disagree and think that Ferrari will equal McLaren with Red Bull romping off to another win.

[Richard]

In part I agree. But I'd say, have a "squad" of e.g. 8 stewards, all of whom have driven at a reasonable level.

Not all drivers, you need some technical folk & sports administrators (usually legal) in there too. Together they can effectively deal with the track, garage & principals.

[Mr Alcatraz]

A couple of people on this thread are saying that Ferrari might be able to jump to Mclaren's level and be the second fastest car. I think that in Malaysia we will still see a strong RBR-Vettel combination with Ferrari certainly in second position.

The betting money thinks different and I agree with it. I don't think that Ferrari will be the second fastest car this weekend.

I think that is a fairly good representation of contender odds, although I don't think McLaren should be rated with a 37.6% better chance to win than Ferrari. I think 20% would be more in line, however that is not how the money is being layed at this book. This would be a good race to bet on a long shot because of the likelihood of rain in quali, and the race JMHO.

[Richard]

Betfair is a UK site. I wonder what the odds are on a German/Austrian or Italian/Spanish sites?

Also, what are the odds for second place?

ps - I'd research it myself but gambling sites are blocked on this pc.

[Mr Alcatraz]

http://sports.eurobet.com/sport/en#/dri ... Grand-Prix


I believe this book has "The Boss" at about a 20% more likely betting proposition than Fred. FYI Rick
I'm not sure of the demographics or its national origin.
I thought I read somewhere on the site that it takes into consideration five markets.

Sebastian Vettel
2.20
Lewis Hamilton
5.00
Fernando Alonso
6.00
Mark Webber
7.00
Jenson Button
11.00
Felipe Massa
29.00

Podium finish:

Sebastian Vettel
1.36
Lewis Hamilton
1.73
Fernando Alonso
1.91
Mark Webber
1.91
Jenson Button
2.75
Felipe Massa
7.50

However the team odds are comporable. That tells me that Massa is dragging the team odds down, while Button is propping his team up a little.(or not dragging it down as much)

Red Bull
1.73
McLaren
3.50
Ferrari
5.00

[WhiteBlue]

Betfair is a UK site. I wonder what the odds are on a German/Austrian or Italian/Spanish sites?

Also, what are the odds for second place?

ps - I'd research it myself but gambling sites are blocked on this pc.

I have previously used international bookmakers and found it less efficient to work out a neutral view of the betting money. I now use BetFair only because they are not based in any specific market but run an online business which is present in all national markets. The odds are build by an entirely automatic algorythm which only consideres to balance the total market of bets. It is therefore the best and most neutral instrument to record betting odds.

[Mr Alcatraz]

A couple of people on this thread are saying that Ferrari might be able to jump to Mclaren's level and be the second fastest car. I think that in Malaysia we will still see a strong RBR-Vettel combination with Ferrari certainly in second position.

As much as I would like to agree with you, (and I hope I'm wrong) I don't see any big move from Ferrari. Alonso may qualify a place higher, and maybe even get the third step. Massa is unsteady in the wet and I don't really expect much from him. Maybe he will surprise me. Ferrari will improve. I just don't think this is the week for it at this point. I'm basing this partially on inclement weather prohibiting them from really being able to facilitate progress.
Then again the whole race could be a clusterf**k as it is looking more and more like heavy rain for Sunday.

[raymondu999]

I've always used oddschecker as it compiles a lot of the top bookies.

[WhiteBlue]

This what the betting money thinks of qualifying. Should be a Red Bull front row with Hamilton and Alonso in the second row.

[Mr Alcatraz]

This what the betting money thinks of qualifying. Should be a Red Bull front row with Hamilton and Alonso in the second row.

The disparity between Webber and Vettel is...............................substantial

[raymondu999]

Hey WB. Can I just quickly ask if you know, statistically, how many times your technique of inferring qually/race results from betting odds has worked out?

[beelsebob]

Hey WB. Can I just quickly ask if you know, statistically, how many times your technique of inferring qually/race results from betting odds has worked out?

Given that bookies make money, I'd guess pretty commonly

[raymondu999]

For bookies to make money they only need to set correct odds for the actual "bet-winning" driver. But I'm wondering if the order pans out as per the order of odds(from smallest to largest)