2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

[organic]

Got to remember Bahrain isn't a representative circuit

[the EDGE]

Sure, but one second is a big gap.

It is if the pace is genuine. It’s really not that hard to hide 1 sec of pace. We see it all the time.

Piastri and Norris said they are a good chunk off Ferrari and miles away from RB. They may have reserves, but I don't think that's going to put them at Ferrari or RB's pace.

I suspect your right. We'll find out soon! but even then it's just 1 circuit

[Emag]

The issue is that the comp here is Leclerc who also did a middle stint on C1, and was on average one second faster than this stint from Piastri. Looking at engine modes and top speeds they look comparable. This is why I fear for McLaren.

The problem is that the data is really difficult to read because the stints were quite different in the number of laps as well as the approach.

Oscar first stint had 14 laps on C3, Leclerc had 18 laps on C3
Oscar second stint had 21 laps on C1, Leclerc had 17 laps on C1
And for the final stint, Oscar had 11 laps on C3, Leclerc had 6 laps on C3

So we have 46 laps for Oscar and 41 laps for Leclerc

Now, if we do take the averages of those middle stints, the average of Oscar is indeed around 1s off Leclerc, but the thing is, Oscar's stint was not natural in how it was progressing, because while Leclerc was getting slower towards the end as you expect it to, Oscar was actually getting faster, which implies they were not running a true race simulation.

And something that is very noticeable in Oscar's stints, is that he actually starts out relatively slow before going faster and stabilizing in a certain x laptime.

It just seems to me that they were doing a pre-planned programme in tyre management in order to help Oscar get a better feel on the tire under different circumstances.

Add to this the fact that Leclerc's first stint was actually longer, which means he had less fuel on the car when he got to the C1s, plus the unknown initial fuel loads (Leclerc ended the full simulation with less laps), I don't think those middle stints are comparable 1:1 at all.

The last C3 stint though, perhaps paints a better picture. And if you discount the laps where it seems the deg was significant, the gap was closer to 0.5s.

Considering that Oscar had this tendency of not pushing during practice sessions (pretty often we have seen race simulations run on FP2 when he seemed pretty far off, and that didn't turn out to be the case come race day). and also the fact that you would probably expect Lando to still have the upper hand on him when it comes to race pace, especially on such a high-deg track, that doesn't seem too unreasonable to be honest.

McLaren said themselves they are behind Ferrari and RedBull. I think the gap, in Lando's hands under real racing conditions, is probably closer to 0.2-0.3s

[LionsHeart]

The issue is that the comp here is Leclerc who also did a middle stint on C1, and was on average one second faster than this stint from Piastri. Looking at engine modes and top speeds they look comparable. This is why I fear for McLaren.

The problem is that the data is really difficult to read because the stints were quite different in the number of laps as well as the approach.

Oscar first stint had 14 laps on C3, Leclerc had 18 laps on C3
Oscar second stint had 21 laps on C1, Leclerc had 17 laps on C1
And for the final stint, Oscar had 11 laps on C3, Leclerc had 6 laps on C3

So we have 46 laps for Oscar and 41 laps for Leclerc

Now, if we do take the averages of those middle stints, the average of Oscar is indeed around 1s off Leclerc, but the thing is, Oscar's stint was not natural in how it was progressing, because while Leclerc was getting slower towards the end as you expect it to, Oscar was actually getting faster, which implies they were not running a true race simulation.

And something that is very noticeable in Oscar's stints, is that he actually starts out relatively slow before going faster and stabilizing in a certain x laptime.

It just seems to me that they were doing a pre-planned programme in tyre management in order to help Oscar get a better feel on the tire under different circumstances.

Add to this the fact that Leclerc's first stint was actually longer, which means he had less fuel on the car when he got to the C1s, plus the unknown initial fuel loads (Leclerc ended the full simulation with less laps), I don't think those middle stints are comparable 1:1 at all.

The last C3 stint though, perhaps paints a better picture. And if you discount the laps where it seems the deg was significant, the gap was closer to 0.5s.

Considering that Oscar had this tendency of not pushing during practice sessions (pretty often we have seen race simulations run on FP2 when he seemed pretty far off, and that didn't turn out to be the case come race day). and also the fact that you would probably expect Lando to still have the upper hand on him when it comes to race pace, especially on such a high-deg track, that doesn't seem too unreasonable to be honest.

McLaren said themselves they are behind Ferrari and RedBull. I think the gap, in Lando's hands under real racing conditions, is probably closer to 0.2-0.3s

I fully support this thesis and the conclusions reached.

[Ground Effect]

Oscar barely featured in DTS, even with his accomplishments as a rookie, sprint pole+win.... odd.

[elldizzle]

The C1 race sim to me looks like, start with a bit of pace, Management phase, Midway through stint, start picking up the pace in a measured way every couple of laps. Like others have said this was a tyre info gathering/ Learning excercise not a race sim.

[Xyz22]

The issue is that the comp here is Leclerc who also did a middle stint on C1, and was on average one second faster than this stint from Piastri. Looking at engine modes and top speeds they look comparable. This is why I fear for McLaren.

Looking at the fact that there is no deg it is highly likely that they could have lapped quite a bit faster though.

Sure, but one second is a big gap.

It is. I don't think it will be that big in the actual race, though.

[Ground Effect]

One of the areas McLaren focused on improving was tyre management, (interaction with the tyres) so let's hope this was some kind of extensive exercise which differed from the programme of others.

[Cs98]

The issue is that the comp here is Leclerc who also did a middle stint on C1, and was on average one second faster than this stint from Piastri. Looking at engine modes and top speeds they look comparable. This is why I fear for McLaren.

The problem is that the data is really difficult to read because the stints were quite different in the number of laps as well as the approach.

Oscar first stint had 14 laps on C3, Leclerc had 18 laps on C3
Oscar second stint had 21 laps on C1, Leclerc had 17 laps on C1
And for the final stint, Oscar had 11 laps on C3, Leclerc had 6 laps on C3

So we have 46 laps for Oscar and 41 laps for Leclerc

Now, if we do take the averages of those middle stints, the average of Oscar is indeed around 1s off Leclerc, but the thing is, Oscar's stint was not natural in how it was progressing, because while Leclerc was getting slower towards the end as you expect it to, Oscar was actually getting faster, which implies they were not running a true race simulation.

And something that is very noticeable in Oscar's stints, is that he actually starts out relatively slow before going faster and stabilizing in a certain x laptime.

It just seems to me that they were doing a pre-planned programme in tyre management in order to help Oscar get a better feel on the tire under different circumstances.

Add to this the fact that Leclerc's first stint was actually longer, which means he had less fuel on the car when he got to the C1s, plus the unknown initial fuel loads (Leclerc ended the full simulation with less laps), I don't think those middle stints are comparable 1:1 at all.

The last C3 stint though, perhaps paints a better picture. And if you discount the laps where it seems the deg was significant, the gap was closer to 0.5s.

Considering that Oscar had this tendency of not pushing during practice sessions (pretty often we have seen race simulations run on FP2 when he seemed pretty far off, and that didn't turn out to be the case come race day). and also the fact that you would probably expect Lando to still have the upper hand on him when it comes to race pace, especially on such a high-deg track, that doesn't seem too unreasonable to be honest.

McLaren said themselves they are behind Ferrari and RedBull. I think the gap, in Lando's hands under real racing conditions, is probably closer to 0.2-0.3s

The gap in the first and third stints is something like 7-8 tenths, so let's not kid ourselves it's only the middle stint that shows a big gap. If you are expecting to be within 2-3 tenths of Ferrari (not to mention Red Bull) I think you are in for a rude awakening come Saturday. I think the real gap will be at least half a second here in the race, maybe more (to Ferrari).

[Marc.W]

Oscar barely featured in DTS, even with his accomplishments as a rookie, sprint pole+win.... odd.

Once again it felt like the Red Bull & Gunter show, with some sprinklings of Merc/Ferrari.

McLaren got a quick "Our car was bad but now it isn't" and then a couple of minutes in the final episode, very odd considering Qatar

[Emag]

The issue is that the comp here is Leclerc who also did a middle stint on C1, and was on average one second faster than this stint from Piastri. Looking at engine modes and top speeds they look comparable. This is why I fear for McLaren.

The problem is that the data is really difficult to read because the stints were quite different in the number of laps as well as the approach.

Oscar first stint had 14 laps on C3, Leclerc had 18 laps on C3
Oscar second stint had 21 laps on C1, Leclerc had 17 laps on C1
And for the final stint, Oscar had 11 laps on C3, Leclerc had 6 laps on C3

So we have 46 laps for Oscar and 41 laps for Leclerc

Now, if we do take the averages of those middle stints, the average of Oscar is indeed around 1s off Leclerc, but the thing is, Oscar's stint was not natural in how it was progressing, because while Leclerc was getting slower towards the end as you expect it to, Oscar was actually getting faster, which implies they were not running a true race simulation.

And something that is very noticeable in Oscar's stints, is that he actually starts out relatively slow before going faster and stabilizing in a certain x laptime.

It just seems to me that they were doing a pre-planned programme in tyre management in order to help Oscar get a better feel on the tire under different circumstances.

Add to this the fact that Leclerc's first stint was actually longer, which means he had less fuel on the car when he got to the C1s, plus the unknown initial fuel loads (Leclerc ended the full simulation with less laps), I don't think those middle stints are comparable 1:1 at all.

The last C3 stint though, perhaps paints a better picture. And if you discount the laps where it seems the deg was significant, the gap was closer to 0.5s.

Considering that Oscar had this tendency of not pushing during practice sessions (pretty often we have seen race simulations run on FP2 when he seemed pretty far off, and that didn't turn out to be the case come race day). and also the fact that you would probably expect Lando to still have the upper hand on him when it comes to race pace, especially on such a high-deg track, that doesn't seem too unreasonable to be honest.

McLaren said themselves they are behind Ferrari and RedBull. I think the gap, in Lando's hands under real racing conditions, is probably closer to 0.2-0.3s

The gap in the first and third stints is something like 7-8 tenths, so let's not kid ourselves it's only the middle stint that shows a big gap. If you are expecting to be within 2-3 tenths of Ferrari (not to mention Red Bull) I think you are in for a rude awakening come Saturday. I think the real gap will be at least half a second here in the race, maybe more (to Ferrari).

The pace at which Oscar was running was comparable to the MCL60 race sims in pre season testing last year as well as the pace Lando had in the actual race last year. A car which was at best 8th quickest at the start of the season in 2023 ...

Until proven otherwise, the assumption that Oscar was not running a performance-focused race simulation is neither outlandish nor delusional. And everyone is basing performance claims on that run in day 3.

I do not expect them to do well in Bahrain. Actually, I am expecting them to fight with Aston for P7-P8 (because Mercedes is very hard to read, however Allison is confident they are better than Ferrari in race-pace). But the finishing position doesn't matter as much as the gap to the front.

If they are indeed 1s behind Ferrari, then that's not a good look at all for the team (especially since they have remained rather bullish about their chances of being race winners this season). That is way too big of a gap on stable regulations when you consider that the season ended with them being probably on par with Ferrari (depending on track, better than them).

If Ferrari outdeveloped them by 1s per lap then Lando will start looking at those exit clauses for that contract he signed ...

[the EDGE]

Oscar barely featured in DTS, even with his accomplishments as a rookie, sprint pole+win.... odd.

Once again it felt like the Red Bull & Gunter show, with some sprinklings of Merc/Ferrari.

McLaren got a quick "Our car was bad but now it isn't" and then a couple of minutes in the final episode, very odd considering Qatar

Haven’t bother to watch in years… it was great when it first started, then just got lame when everyone started complaining it was fake and RB/Max had a tantrum

[Marc.W]

Oscar barely featured in DTS, even with his accomplishments as a rookie, sprint pole+win.... odd.

Once again it felt like the Red Bull & Gunter show, with some sprinklings of Merc/Ferrari.

McLaren got a quick "Our car was bad but now it isn't" and then a couple of minutes in the final episode, very odd considering Qatar

Haven’t bother to watch in years… it was great when it first started, then just got lame when everyone started complaining it was fake and RB/Max had a tantrum

I watch just because I hate everything being so cencored/family friendly, would love to know what Lawrence Stroll said to Zak

[CjC]

The problem is that the data is really difficult to read because the stints were quite different in the number of laps as well as the approach.

Oscar first stint had 14 laps on C3, Leclerc had 18 laps on C3
Oscar second stint had 21 laps on C1, Leclerc had 17 laps on C1
And for the final stint, Oscar had 11 laps on C3, Leclerc had 6 laps on C3

So we have 46 laps for Oscar and 41 laps for Leclerc

Now, if we do take the averages of those middle stints, the average of Oscar is indeed around 1s off Leclerc, but the thing is, Oscar's stint was not natural in how it was progressing, because while Leclerc was getting slower towards the end as you expect it to, Oscar was actually getting faster, which implies they were not running a true race simulation.

And something that is very noticeable in Oscar's stints, is that he actually starts out relatively slow before going faster and stabilizing in a certain x laptime.

It just seems to me that they were doing a pre-planned programme in tyre management in order to help Oscar get a better feel on the tire under different circumstances.

Add to this the fact that Leclerc's first stint was actually longer, which means he had less fuel on the car when he got to the C1s, plus the unknown initial fuel loads (Leclerc ended the full simulation with less laps), I don't think those middle stints are comparable 1:1 at all.

The last C3 stint though, perhaps paints a better picture. And if you discount the laps where it seems the deg was significant, the gap was closer to 0.5s.

Considering that Oscar had this tendency of not pushing during practice sessions (pretty often we have seen race simulations run on FP2 when he seemed pretty far off, and that didn't turn out to be the case come race day). and also the fact that you would probably expect Lando to still have the upper hand on him when it comes to race pace, especially on such a high-deg track, that doesn't seem too unreasonable to be honest.

McLaren said themselves they are behind Ferrari and RedBull. I think the gap, in Lando's hands under real racing conditions, is probably closer to 0.2-0.3s

The gap in the first and third stints is something like 7-8 tenths, so let's not kid ourselves it's only the middle stint that shows a big gap. If you are expecting to be within 2-3 tenths of Ferrari (not to mention Red Bull) I think you are in for a rude awakening come Saturday. I think the real gap will be at least half a second here in the race, maybe more (to Ferrari).

The pace at which Oscar was running was comparable to the MCL60 race sims in pre season testing last year as well as the pace Lando had in the actual race last year. A car which was at best 8th quickest at the start of the season in 2023 ...

Until proven otherwise, the assumption that Oscar was not running a performance-focused race simulation is neither outlandish nor delusional. And everyone is basing performance claims on that run in day 3.

I do not expect them to do well in Bahrain. Actually, I am expecting them to fight with Aston for P7-P8 (because Mercedes is very hard to read, however Allison is confident they are better than Ferrari in race-pace). But the finishing position doesn't matter as much as the gap to the front.

If they are indeed 1s behind Ferrari, then that's not a good look at all for the team (especially since they have remained rather bullish about their chances of being race winners this season). That is way too big of a gap on stable regulations when you consider that the season ended with them being probably on par with Ferrari (depending on track, better than them).

If Ferrari outdeveloped them by 1s per lap then Lando will start looking at those exit clauses for that contract he signed ...

This has actually crossed my mind but had no way of finding out.

If that race sim of Oscars is marginally faster than the MCL60s race pace from Bahrain 23 then we might as well throw the times from the test race sim out of the window and any other teams as well for that matter.

Anyone correct me if I’m being to generous but surely we would expect the MCL38 to be at least 1.5 seconds a lap quicker than the MCL60 in race trim from Bahrain to Bahrain?

[mwillems]

The problem is that the data is really difficult to read because the stints were quite different in the number of laps as well as the approach.

Oscar first stint had 14 laps on C3, Leclerc had 18 laps on C3
Oscar second stint had 21 laps on C1, Leclerc had 17 laps on C1
And for the final stint, Oscar had 11 laps on C3, Leclerc had 6 laps on C3

So we have 46 laps for Oscar and 41 laps for Leclerc

Now, if we do take the averages of those middle stints, the average of Oscar is indeed around 1s off Leclerc, but the thing is, Oscar's stint was not natural in how it was progressing, because while Leclerc was getting slower towards the end as you expect it to, Oscar was actually getting faster, which implies they were not running a true race simulation.

And something that is very noticeable in Oscar's stints, is that he actually starts out relatively slow before going faster and stabilizing in a certain x laptime.

It just seems to me that they were doing a pre-planned programme in tyre management in order to help Oscar get a better feel on the tire under different circumstances.

Add to this the fact that Leclerc's first stint was actually longer, which means he had less fuel on the car when he got to the C1s, plus the unknown initial fuel loads (Leclerc ended the full simulation with less laps), I don't think those middle stints are comparable 1:1 at all.

The last C3 stint though, perhaps paints a better picture. And if you discount the laps where it seems the deg was significant, the gap was closer to 0.5s.

Considering that Oscar had this tendency of not pushing during practice sessions (pretty often we have seen race simulations run on FP2 when he seemed pretty far off, and that didn't turn out to be the case come race day). and also the fact that you would probably expect Lando to still have the upper hand on him when it comes to race pace, especially on such a high-deg track, that doesn't seem too unreasonable to be honest.

McLaren said themselves they are behind Ferrari and RedBull. I think the gap, in Lando's hands under real racing conditions, is probably closer to 0.2-0.3s

The gap in the first and third stints is something like 7-8 tenths, so let's not kid ourselves it's only the middle stint that shows a big gap. If you are expecting to be within 2-3 tenths of Ferrari (not to mention Red Bull) I think you are in for a rude awakening come Saturday. I think the real gap will be at least half a second here in the race, maybe more (to Ferrari).

The pace at which Oscar was running was comparable to the MCL60 race sims in pre season testing last year as well as the pace Lando had in the actual race last year. A car which was at best 8th quickest at the start of the season in 2023 ...

Until proven otherwise, the assumption that Oscar was not running a performance-focused race simulation is neither outlandish nor delusional. And everyone is basing performance claims on that run in day 3.

I do not expect them to do well in Bahrain. Actually, I am expecting them to fight with Aston for P7-P8 (because Mercedes is very hard to read, however Allison is confident they are better than Ferrari in race-pace). But the finishing position doesn't matter as much as the gap to the front.

If they are indeed 1s behind Ferrari, then that's not a good look at all for the team (especially since they have remained rather bullish about their chances of being race winners this season). That is way too big of a gap on stable regulations when you consider that the season ended with them being probably on par with Ferrari (depending on track, better than them).

If Ferrari outdeveloped them by 1s per lap then Lando will start looking at those exit clauses for that contract he signed ...

Do you have a link to the comparable MCL60 laps? I took a look on twitter and F1-Tempo and there wasn't much more than 7 laps on the c1, which we did do at the mid 37s. I don't think we can compare seven laps to around triple that. In the race Lando didn't get to comparable times until he was over halfway through the race with a fresh set of mediums.

Not suggesting your ideas are wrong, but I don't think the data is comparable or the race pace similar from what I can see.