MrBlacky wrote:How does RB have a race advantage? Yes, they have one unused prime set more, but one shreddered set of options as well.
RB are going to do a short stint on the options to start with and then run with the prime throughout the rest of the race, believing that their tyre wear dictates this is the faster strategy. They also have the option of doing two option stints to open with or using the option on their final run.
If everyone gets a clean start then I'd expect McLaren to shadow them and switch to the prime in the second stint, but with a view to switch back to the option depending on how the pace of each type of tyre pans out. The gap between the two tyres isn't so great here, about 0.7 - 1 seconds per lap, so there's less penalty for running on the more durable tyre. That said it's all going to come down to tyre wear. RB have gambled, to a degree, on there being high degradation where as McLaren have opted for the normal race strategy. I have suspicion, based on the drivers comments from the other teams, that tyre wear isn't going to be soooo bad (about Japan bad) but Red Bull believe it to be worse.
Interestingly even if it is worse then it may still play into McLaren's hands as even if they have to pit earlier than RB for the second stops they should then get the benefit of the undercut and gain track position even though RB will spend the rest of the stints on slightly fresher tyres. Should be an interesting race!