[2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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TAG
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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senja wrote:
06 Mar 2018, 09:13
What a comic posts on last two pages :lol:

Dude says as argument that Vettel couldn't pass Hamilton or Bottas on few races in last two years. Especilally last year. What year are we talking about? Of year when cars becomes 2 meters wide? Of year when we had least overtakes.
In that year Mercedes dominated qualifications. And that was crucial advantage last season. And again, when only oportunity to overtake is on straight, who would be harder for overtake? Mercedes, of course, with strongest engine and fastest on straights...

And still, if Ferrari not have those issues...
If Ferrari are to win this year, I hope they win, and win decisively. I don't think anyone can stand such a large portion of the fan base having their heart ripped out once again, a tenth season running. It's a much less bitter pill when you're finishing 3rd or 4th.
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dans79
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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TAG wrote:
06 Mar 2018, 16:21
I don't think anyone can stand such a large portion of the fan base having their heart ripped out once again, a tenth season running.
I don't see a problem with it personally, its on the team to do what it takes within the constraints of the rules to win.
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GPR-A duplicate2
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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TAG wrote:
06 Mar 2018, 16:21
senja wrote:
06 Mar 2018, 09:13
What a comic posts on last two pages :lol:

Dude says as argument that Vettel couldn't pass Hamilton or Bottas on few races in last two years. Especilally last year. What year are we talking about? Of year when cars becomes 2 meters wide? Of year when we had least overtakes.
In that year Mercedes dominated qualifications. And that was crucial advantage last season. And again, when only oportunity to overtake is on straight, who would be harder for overtake? Mercedes, of course, with strongest engine and fastest on straights...

And still, if Ferrari not have those issues...
If Ferrari are to win this year, I hope they win, and win decisively. I don't think anyone can stand such a large portion of the fan base having their heart ripped out once again, a tenth season running. It's a much less bitter pill when you're finishing 3rd or 4th.
I don't think the Ferrari fans desperately need their team to win (they would support regardless) OR for that matter, it matters to Ferrari if they themselves win more championships or not. With the exception of Schumacher's era, I can't recall a period where they operated like champions. But, still they have continued in F1 for the longest time possible. So, it's just a platform for Ferrari now to sell their road cars (unlike Enzo's way of thinking).

I would only hope that the team that has done the best job to win, which is how the series would be respectable. I wouldn't hope or wish for someone to win, only because they are in the game for the longest OR because someone hasn't won for the longest.

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TAG
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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What happens, happens. No issues from me there, the comment was around the reactions that are often so disjointed, reactionary or simply bitter. I've spent years of my life watching F1, since McLaren had a Porsche engine in it, and during the overwhelming majority of those years my favorite team or favorite driver hasn't won. I'm okay with it and I've continued watching through, lean years, painful years and winning years.

The internet has made it a lot easier for the segment of fans complain, to complain with certain regularity and with much more visibility.
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Phil
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... rafe-2018/

Some interesting info on AMuS regarding the 3 engine rule that I didn't think about. Running 3 engine per season means that you only potentially have 2 version where you can bring a spec update. Or that's the original thought anyway. Turns out, just about every team will bring two engines per car to Melbourne to plan for the worst-case scenario incase an engine needs to be changed. So that means only 1 spec upgrade if they aim to get through with 3 engines per season...

There's also some speculation that Mercedes is behind the idea of running only 3 engines (or at least in favor of). Given that they seem to have the strongest package, they stand to gain the most by only running 3 engines per season.

Meanwhile, RedBull thinks that any "racer" should plan to use 4 engines, run more power at the expense of a potential grid penalty, but that most engine suppliers don't think that way due to image reasons (they don't want to be seen as not getting through with 3 engines). Either way, both Mercedes and Ferrari publicly plan to use only 3 engines for the season. Renault is still open. One way or the other, it'll be interesting if some teams do gamble on using 4 engines anyway at the cost of a grid penalty...
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NathanOlder
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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But surely if they don't use the 2nd engine in Melbourne then it doesn't count as engine 2. So they can ditch that engine for an upgraded engine if the 1st engine does it's 7 races.
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Phil
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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That's what I was thinking too, but why would Abiteboul say that then?

"Es gibt laut Abiteboul noch ein zweites Problem: „Du musst mit zwei Motoren pro Auto nach Melbourne kommen, um den Notfall abzusichern. Damit bleibt die nur noch eine Ausbaustufe. Das heißt, dass wir zwei Drittel unserer Motoren schon für das erste Rennen bauen müssen."

Roughly translated to "You have to take two engines per car to Melbourne to account for all eventuality. This only leaves one upgrade-spec. That means you already built two engines under spec 1 for the first race".

Now that I think about it - IMO - every spec needs to be homologated. Once it is used in any shape or form on a weekend, it's within the engine pool. The whole point in using 3 engine rule is to reduce costs for customer teams who only have to buy 3 engines (instead of 4). Effectively, they save the cost of an engine. But for a team like i.e. Sauber, they buy 3 engines per car, but they already "bought" 2 per car for Melbourne alone to cover all eventualities. That means they can only use one more spec upgrade, if they want to stay within the 3 engine limit.

Perhaps it's easier for the big teams like Mercedes, Ferrari, Renault (and RB doesn't care). They bring 2 of each engines to the every race, but never use the 2nd one unless they must. For them, it's not a question of costs, since they are the manufacturers anyway. For a team like Williams or Sauber, maybe Haas too, that one engine saving is worth a lot to them, so they might only use only two specs per year under the 3 engine limit rule.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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TAG
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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I think perhaps for the customer teams buying an engine means they pay for what they use when they use it. It's likely vendors have spare lumps to use as a customer components should there be a requirement for it. Money is tight down at the customer teams. The ICE is pretty much the primary thing we're talking about as all other component would likely get revisions as needed. Remember you can go back and retrofit an already used component for the sake of reliability like Ferrari did with their Turbos last year.
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Jolle
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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Phil wrote:
06 Mar 2018, 19:43
That's what I was thinking too, but why would Abiteboul say that then?

"Es gibt laut Abiteboul noch ein zweites Problem: „Du musst mit zwei Motoren pro Auto nach Melbourne kommen, um den Notfall abzusichern. Damit bleibt die nur noch eine Ausbaustufe. Das heißt, dass wir zwei Drittel unserer Motoren schon für das erste Rennen bauen müssen."

Roughly translated to "You have to take two engines per car to Melbourne to account for all eventuality. This only leaves one upgrade-spec. That means you already built two engines under spec 1 for the first race".

Now that I think about it - IMO - every spec needs to be homologated. Once it is used in any shape or form on a weekend, it's within the engine pool. The whole point in using 3 engine rule is to reduce costs for customer teams who only have to buy 3 engines (instead of 4). Effectively, they save the cost of an engine. But for a team like i.e. Sauber, they buy 3 engines per car, but they already "bought" 2 per car for Melbourne alone to cover all eventualities. That means they can only use one more spec upgrade, if they want to stay within the 3 engine limit.

Perhaps it's easier for the big teams like Mercedes, Ferrari, Renault (and RB doesn't care). They bring 2 of each engines to the every race, but never use the 2nd one unless they must. For them, it's not a question of costs, since they are the manufacturers anyway. For a team like Williams or Sauber, maybe Haas too, that one engine saving is worth a lot to them, so they might only use only two specs per year under the 3 engine limit rule.
Well, the teams don't buy the PU's, they lease them, or more the use.
Because PU's must be the same for all teams supplied, I imagine the manufactures have a pool of spare PU's and parts, not directly at coupled to the teams.

For the first race, spec 1 you need a bit extra indeed. But that has nothing to do with the number of PU's over the season.
Over the season the spare PU's can be upgraded to a later specs, the PU's only get sealed once they are used. When you're left with a few spec's you can't use because of upgrading, there is enough use for them for show runs, rookie tests, tire testing, etc etc.

With 3 PU's, basically you only have 3 specs during the year, so the reserve pool only has to be 3 specs over the year. That is very efficient. If you had a new PU per race, there would be more specs and therefore more spares, more failures (PU's running end of life more often, now they only run near end of life 3 times a season), etc etc.
small teams could even save a bit of money to "claim" a earlier spec of spare.

Sounds like Renault is just making waves where there are none.

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godlameroso
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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Today most people ran in the 30-60kg range, the times have taken an almost scary step forward since last year. Where the race winner started the race in the 26's, and worked his way down to the high 23's at the end of the race. Here they're comfortably doing 22's 21's 20's, let's say they're on 35kg of fuel, vs a full load where they were doing 26's 25's, here they'd still be doing 24's at worst, 23's maybe. That means the top cars have the pace to do 24's on full fuel a full 2 seconds faster than last year. If we extrapolate that to full on pace it means that low 17's high 16's are what's possible. As there's usually about a 5 - 6 second difference between the slowest race lap and the fastest qualifying lap.

As far as pecking order, if you take a strategic penalty who knows. It's very close between the top 3, below them it gets fuzzy, Haas has stepped up their game, TR has as well but still have a lot of work ahead of them. Renault has improved, but not as much as I though they would given all the development they've done. Williams has improved but they still have a fair bit of work to do as well. Sauber looks lost, they went too radical and their car seems to have a big learning curve. I can't pin where McLaren is, partly due to limited running, partly do to them not showing their hand as a result of their "issues". They could be at the back of the pack, just as easily as they could be right behind the top 3. It's been the McLaren way for a while now to always run heavy in testing.

Right now even the Williams in the hands of Stroll can match last year's race winning pace which means the field has bunched up in general, at least that's the picture I'm getting so far, of course it could just mean come Melbourne Mercedes will just mop the floor with everyone again. Then again some teams are saying their testing car is just a preview of what's to come on race day.

My prediction has come true, and the race pace of these cars is now the fastest it's ever been, including the refueling days with V10's, that means the 1:24's those cars did in the race will be matched, and maybe even beaten by these monsters.
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tcooper27
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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A large part of the jump in lap times between this year and last probably boils down to the resurfacing. The new surface is supposed to be much faster. I don’t have the source but I saw it mentioned that other series have gained 1-2 seconds across the board.

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Zynerji
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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With the revelation that Honda is, in fact, giving STR a "development grant" I need to revise my earlier pecking order speculation.

1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Red Bull
4. Torro Rosso
5. Williams
6. Haas
7. Force India
8. Renault
9. McLaren
10. Sauber

Moose
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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Looking at how the cars handled through the last sector on ted's notebook, plus some artistic license, this is my prediction:

1. Mercedes

2. RedBull
3. Ferrari


4. McLaren

5. Williams
6. Renault
7. Haas

8. Force India
9. Sauber
10. Toro Rosso

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Blackout
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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Mercedes
Ferrari Red Bull
Renault
Mclaren
Williams
Haas Toro Rosso
Sauber

Mansell89
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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So far to me it looks:

Ferrari/Mercedes

+0.5s Red Bull

+another 0.5s McLaren (when it runs)

And the rest.


The only way the front two will be in trouble is if they are struggling to manage tyres. Ferrari seems to be able to run the softer for longer so they are nicely set.