F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

[PlatinumZealot]

I think Raikkonen and Button are good bets at this point. I am picking Button to win his 2nd championship. Raikkonen is a good bet at this point because if the Lotus shows real well in the next test, those odds could likely change.

For Button to win wdc the car would have to be fastest or equal fastest.. and that means he has to qualify real good to win... Can't see it.

[Pup]

It all comes down to the car, doesn't it?

If Red Bull are in the lead again, then of course it will be Vettel.

An unlikely Ferrari surprise, and Alonso will take it with ease.

If McLaren perform as expected, then sure I'd like to see Button in front, but I think we're more likely to see Hamilton make a comeback.

Mercedes is more interesting - if they have a good car, then the old Schumi might show up. Assuming that old Schumi ever existed.

I'd say that if we see a tight battle at the top, then driver pairings will favor Vettel or Alonso for the WDC, but McLaren or Merc for the WCC.

I don't see Lotus or Force India having the stamina for the season, even if they do surprise with a quick car to start off.

I picked Hamilton because A) I'm a McLaren fan, B) a 3rd title in a row has been a statistically difficult thing to achieve, and C) I think Mac are the only team that have looked like challengers so far.

[beelsebob]

I think pup's mostly there – the reason I go with Hamilton over Button this year is that
1) He (hopefully) won't be overdriving every weekend
2) It looks like the rear tyres behave much better for him this year, he shouldn't chew through them quite so badly.

[Pup]

I'd also say that if you're betting long shots, then Di Resta at 200:1 looks pretty good.

[Richard]

The danger for McLaren is that the 2 drives spilt the available points, whereas RB and Ferrari have team orders.

[stefan_]

I went for Alonso 3/4 because I hope that Ferrari get it right with the car this year and 1/4 with the heart, but in the same time I am conscious that Vettel is in the first row to win because he has a ridiculous good pace and consistency.

I would have loved to vote for Kimi, but even if I am a half-Lotus-fan and I really want to see him win in the first year of his return, I don't think he has a winning car. A 3rd, 4th or 5th place maybe. Hope he proves me wrong

[dren]

I think Raikkonen and Button are good bets at this point. I am picking Button to win his 2nd championship. Raikkonen is a good bet at this point because if the Lotus shows real well in the next test, those odds could likely change.

For Button to win wdc the car would have to be fastest or equal fastest.. and that means he has to qualify real good to win... Can't see it.

If Button can fix his qualifying pace, I expect him to be there. It seems to me that he has taken over that team. Hamilton needs some confidence boosters early. A few bad races and I'll count him out.

[megz]

I like that HRT and Marussia are showing better WDC odds than Williams when neither of the former have managed to turn a wheel in anger. Not a lot of confidence in Williams these days huh?

[raymondu999]

Has anyone read the odds and sods piece on Autosport Plus? Quite a funny take on this whole situation.

Unfortunately it's subs-only *cough*PM me!*cough*

[WhiteBlue]

I have not seen a substantial analysis of long runs under comparable conditions. So the betting is probably still much influenced by the form the competitors had at the end of last year. Perhaps those charts will be generated in the next two days but even then we will probably only learn the full truth at the first qualifying in Australia. For the time being I think that the odds are a reasonable representation of what can happen. I would not be disappointed if Red Bull/Vettel would make it again. The most interesting fight for me will be Ferrari vs Mercedes and I hope that Merc will go level with Ferrari. In that case I expect Nico to remain the faster driver with the highest score at Merc.

[WhiteBlue]

Pre Australia update:

In the WDC odds biggest surprise is Räikkönen in front of the Merc drivers for me. There must be tremendous trust in Kimi to deliver some outstanding drives with a mediocre car. Let's see how long his motivation holds. Alonso is now tipped to close the season in P4. The mighty have fallen.



Kimi being so high by the cars merits is not confirmed by the WCC odds where Lotus comes behind Merc. Ferrari and Merc are now head on head to go through the season with quite a long distance to the two top teams we expect this season.



In qualifying is still some hope for the Alonso fans. They see their man in P4.



In the race Alonso is set for P5. So the start of the season looks very bad for Ferrari with very little improvements only coming over the course of the season.

[Nando]

Heart says Alonso but brain says Hamilton.

Give him a car that is equal to the RBR and he will dominate.

[PlatinumZealot]

I think Raikkonen and Button are good bets at this point. I am picking Button to win his 2nd championship. Raikkonen is a good bet at this point because if the Lotus shows real well in the next test, those odds could likely change.

For Button to win wdc the car would have to be fastest or equal fastest.. and that means he has to qualify real good to win... Can't see it.

If Button can fix his qualifying pace, I expect him to be there. It seems to me that he has taken over that team. Hamilton needs some confidence boosters early. A few bad races and I'll count him out.

Hmm. I always hear that phrase every now and again. Drivers always talk about it too... but how realistic is it? (Sounds like a good thread).

[WhiteBlue]

I have decided to prepare odds and Championship table analysis this year. Here is the first installment:



This is the data table showing three WDC and two WCC entries with the pie charts of the latest WDC and WCC situation and the intra team match odds.



This is the history chart of the WDC odds. Everything is pretty normal, except for Alonso falling back to P4 with the rumors of a weak Ferrari car and Räikkönnen suddenly coming from nowhere passing both Mercedes drivers for P6



And this is the history chart of the WCC odds. We only have half way data from testing and pre Australia. Biggest relative movement is Ferrari .

[banibhusan]

I really hope it's Alonso. I really wish it could be Alonso. The good old Renault days will be back then.