2013 pecking order speculation

[Neno]

1. Red Bull (best last season package, i expect from Newey to continue his evolution of cars in shape of new title)
2. Lotus (when Enstone made good car, next season car was always better and faster with all problems solved, also trought years they know made interesting aero devices)
3. Mclaren (Mclaren always had fast car, good for title sometimes, but with new driving seats, and Perez unexperience, and Button incostant GP's where conditions on track dont work for him, i expect 3rd place in championship)
4. Ferrari (Ferrari will be fast, this depend entirly on Ferrari aero section and their wind tunnel. Alonso will be again in position for title, with ofc Massa help, who will serve him like his slave on track for blocking other cars, but this is their policy., but from Ferrari i dont expect something revolutionary, because 2013. is transition year, and i think car for 2014 and their regs will be a great machine.)
5. Mercedes (Mercedes, something similar like Ferrari, i think for Mercedes 2013. will be transiton year, they will have again tyers problems, Hamilton will make maybe a one or two podium under some weird circumstances, but they are also waiting for 2014. and new regs for their re-start, with good car.
8. Sauber (guys in Sauber last couple of years are doing very good job, they probably have best midfield car this year, and under some circumstanes they gained couple of podiums. I expect in 2013. something similar, but maybe not podiums because competition in big, and one of their drivers is unexperienced.
9. Williams (not much better next year from this one. maybe couple of good GP's in points, Maldonado will grew up and collect that points. Bottas? I expect from him solid season in fight with STR, Force India, maybe one Mercedes, not much incidents and good overtakes to see his talent.
10. Force India (what to say, they always on end of season have couple of good races, but that's it. they dont have from beggining good fast car for better results, they could couple of time get into q3 but that's it.
9. STR (they will be nowhere all season, and suddenly wake up around Korea GP, when Red Bull stop stealing their money for devolopment. If Red Bull secure title till then, STR will probably be fast like Mercedes and Sauber if it not, i expect them like last team of old teams.
10. Caterham ( caterham, progress? not so much, probably better year then this one, good fights with STR, points? in some big and weird circumstances maybe! but i expect another dissapointing year for them.
11. Marrusia (fight with Caterham, and STR, similar to Caterham descriptions.)

[Godot]

1. Red Bull (Step back because of late development but still at top.)
2. Ferrari (Will use positive characteristics of F2012 for '13 challenger.)
3. Lotus (At status quo but will be better than...)
4. Mclaren (..which has regressed in '13.)
5. Mercedes (Won't improve very much.)
6. Force India (Leapfrog Sauber)
7. Sauber (Could be a troublesome 2013.)
8. Williams (Will fight with Force India and Sauber but lose out.)
9. Toro Rosso (They won't improve much or at all.)
10. Caterham (Edge out Marussia.)
11. Marussia (Could develop on simple '12 car)

[Spacepace]

Qualifying will be a lot closer in 2013 without unlimited use of DRS. I think that the Mclaren and Red Bull were both gaining a lot from the DRS effect in qualifying. They both have optimized it with a short chord rear wing which is less efficient then a long chord but gives a greater DRS effect. And you have to remember the DDRS on the Red Bull as someone else has already mentioned

In contrast the Ferrari only added a short chord rear wing in Abu Dhabi. They are more ahead with the other design, as is Lotus. I expect to see Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull using a long chord rear wing. This will take away speed in

1. RBR- They probably had the most downforce at the end of the year. Best in race conditions, on same level in qualifying as Mclaren and depending on track ahead of McLaren. Will probably improve on there exhausts for next year to be enough.
2. McLaren- I believe they probably had the best DRS delta. If you watch the onboards they could get that DRS opened earlier then anybody out of the corners. The car was nearly on par with the Red Bull at the end of the season but I have a feeling that the tunnel exhaust set up on RBR has more potential then the McLarens exhaust. I think it will be close between the McLaren and the RBR, and maybe with the suspected higher chassis there will be enough gain to overtake them next year but I say they'll end up second.
3. Lotus- They have a solid platform to work from and will be able to develop the coanda exhaust properly instead of trying to fit it on design not originally meant for it. They will be ahead of everyone with the DRD if we end up seeing it at all. See them being quickest in beginning of year and falling back.
4. Ferrari- Like I said there will be gain for them in qualifying. If they go for more conventional radiators and copy the McLaren sidepods they will be there.
5. Sauber- Solid car to build from last year. Probably enjoy a good mid season to place them ahead of the rest.
6. Mercedes AMG- Will once again fall behind at the end of the season and miss out of 5th place. This team always seems to concentrate so much of its funding on the design instead of developing through the year.
7. Williams F1- This is a team I see sticking with the same car and developing and improving it. I think Maldando has learned to calm down and will be regularly scoring points. Bottas will be quicker in qualifying then Senna was to put them in a better position to score.
8. Force India- Will ditch the side pods and spend most of the year trying to redevelop the car around them. Something similar to McLarens. Will be fighting near the front just like last year.
9. Toro Rosso- More of year like 2011 were it could fight for q2 but just isn't enough to move ahead.
10. Caterham- Pull away from Marussia due to better backing and able to develop car more. Still can't get into the top nine.
11. Marussia- Pull up the rear for the most competitive grid yet.

[WhiteBlue]

It’s going to be hard to beat Sebastian next year. I think Sebastian’s going to have another amazing car. The car he had this year was fantastic. It’s going to be an evolution of that next year. Adrian only seems to get better with age; I think he’s going to do something pretty special next year as well.

Lewis Hamilton could actually make that 2013 and 2014. I'm convinced that Newey will have the upper hand in 2014 as well and be even more dominant than next year. Next year could be again a very hard year for Vettel with very close competition and race wins by many teams and drivers. I see no reason why we should not have eight different race winners again and a championship going to the wire. In that case Vettel could make it five titles in a row if the RB is as good as Hamilton thinks.

[raymondu999]

The video of the interview WB quoted:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f10O_n9RYvk[/youtube]

[Gridlock]

Qualifying will be a lot closer in 2013 without unlimited use of DRS.

This is a key thing, for me. There's been so much written about the minimal changes made to the regs into 2013 favouring Red Bull (even Newey himself, @ sky F1 website) and yet in fact during qualifying you're going to have a car with significantly more drag than 2012 for a large part of the lap - and you lose a performance differentiator, namely the amount of the lap your car is able to run with DRS open.

Add in even more flexibility testing and I think it could be a difficult start to the year again for RBR, as relative to the other teams I think they'll have lost more of their unique mojo.

[raymondu999]

I actually (maybe oddly for some) think it will help RBR.

My reasoning being, RBR has always set their gearing up in a way that means they get minimal DRS benefit, gearing their 7th gear for best DRS-closed top speed than best DRS-open top speed. Once the regs took away the a large part of the downforce advantage they had via EBD, RBR were forced to install the DDRS to allow them to be competitive for poles.

[Gridlock]

minimal DRS benefit

Minimum Vmax, absolutely, but maximum DRS-open-time through corners combined with a short gear equals the best possible acceleration, which is where they get their Q3 times. Adrian favours that side of the DRS compromise (I've always found it interesting the Toro Rossos are fastest through speed traps, if you go with the principle of them being the Red Bull Technologies 'control' data).

[raymondu999]

Minimum Vmax, absolutely, but maximum DRS-open-time through corners combined with a short gear equals the best possible acceleration, which is where they get their Q3 times.

What I'm saying is - the DRS has compromised their philosophy. I'm talking specifically of their 7th gear, not just a short gearing in general. They compromise Vmax, which hurts them in quali because they only gain acceleration - while other teams such as the McLarens and the Ferraris gain acceleration AND top speed.

[Gridlock]

3 months, 5 days of fervent speculation ahead

Of course, all this could be moot if 2013 becomes the year of the passively-switched DRS battle.

[raymondu999]

passive F-duct, you mean? If they do manage a passive F-duct, I personally think we should consider it part of car speed anyway, because it's a laptime benefit that happens to you even if you're just driving the car "naturally" anyways.

[Gridlock]

passive F-duct, you mean? If they do manage a passive F-duct, I personally think we should consider it part of car speed anyway, because it's a laptime benefit that happens to you even if you're just driving the car "naturally" anyways.

DRS in the literal sense, drag reduction system, f-duct, yes.

I consider it functionally equivalent to movable-rear-wing DRS without driver activation, but yes can also be considered just part of the car - I think there will be skill in keeping apex speeds consistent to enable fine margins on the activation.

[foxmulder_ms]

RedBull > Mclaren = Lotus > Ferrari > Mercedes for the car speed

RedBull > Lotus > Ferrari > Mclaren > Mercedes for the points

[beelsebob]

At the start of the season:
Red Bull > Merc > McLaren > Lotus> Ferrari

At the end:
McLaren > Red Bull > Lotus > Ferrari > Sauber > Force India > Williams > Toro Rosso > Caterham > Merc

[Javert]

At the start of the season:
Red Bull > Merc > McLaren > Lotus> Ferrari

At the end:
McLaren > Red Bull > Lotus > Ferrari > Sauber > Force India > Williams > Toro Rosso > Caterham > Merc