2017 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai 07-09 April

[Big Mangalhit]

I actually think Ferrari have been comparatively strongER vs Mercedes in China in recent years, so don't expect it to be a bad track for them.

I also suspect we'll see what I consider to be the right difficulty of overtaking in China: it's going to be very hard and require a lot of skill and bravery but it'll be possible; in recent years I think it's been a slam dunk as soon as you're in drs zone on the long straight.

I doubt China is the best balance. It seems to be very easy to OT there almost as in Baku. Last year it was the record ever of more OT in a GP with 161

[godlameroso]

what i have seen at melbourne , is that Ferrari had more speed than shown.
hamilton never pulled away from vettel, and seb was controlling his speed as needed.
once vettel was in front, it looked soooo easy, managing speed and tires.
dont be surprised if you see Ferrari winging again in china.

Remember Mercedes won here in 2012, the only race they won that year, despite having horrible tire management.

[SiLo]

I think it will be close again, but the harder tires and the cooler temps will help Merc if they are struggling with the heat.

I foresee a Ham pole and win after knowing he could have won in Aus. I think Bottas and Kimi will be closer to the front two as well so the start will be very interesting.

Both Mercs got away quite well in Aus so we could have a nice little fight into turn 1.

[ME4ME]

Remember Mercedes won here in 2012, the only race they won that year, despite having horrible tire management.

It's no coincidence that a team with horrible rear-tire management won on a track that is front-tire limited

As for 2017, it's far to early to say that one team has better tyre management than the other. One datapoint simply doesn't make a trend.

[Sevach]

This is gonna be an interesting one, it's a "normal" track so there may be some changes in the balance of power compared to Melbourne.

[f1316]

I actually think Ferrari have been comparatively strongER vs Mercedes in China in recent years, so don't expect it to be a bad track for them.

I also suspect we'll see what I consider to be the right difficulty of overtaking in China: it's going to be very hard and require a lot of skill and bravery but it'll be possible; in recent years I think it's been a slam dunk as soon as you're in drs zone on the long straight.

I doubt China is the best balance. It seems to be very easy to OT there almost as in Baku. Last year it was the record ever of more OT in a GP with 161

Precisely my point: it was too easy last + it's much harder this year than last = better balance.

I would caveat my own point with the fact that Hamilton had trouble coming all the way through the field last year - but i think a combination of tyres going off too easily and the Mercedes' issues in traffic was largely to blame.

[f1316]

Since we didn't get any of this at beginning of the thread, here's some race info (maybe it can be moved to the top):



Race Information

Number of times held: 13

First held: 2004

Most wins (drivers): United Kingdom Lewis Hamilton (4)

Most wins (constructors): Italy Ferrari (4)
Germany Mercedes (4)

Circuit length: 5.451 km (3.387 mi)

Race length: 305.066 km (189.559 mi)

Laps: 56


Last race: (2016)

Pole position
Germany Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1:35.402

Podium
1. Germany N. Rosberg Mercedes 1:38.53.891
2. Germany S. Vettel Ferrari +37.776
3. Russia D. Kvyat Red Bull-TAG Heuer +45.936

Fastest lap
Germany Nico Hülkenberg Force India-Mercedes 1:39.824

[f1316]

I think this is one of the more mega fastest laps on the calendar, so don't think they'll get close.

If you remember the 2004 race, Michael had a bit of a nightmare, so right at the end of the race he was pushing hard just for the hell of it; I think it's fair to say that, for much of the year, the F2004 - possibly the fastest F1 car of all time- was so dominant that Michael didn't need to let it off the leash. Now obviously refuelling era is a whole different ballgame in terms of judging the inherent speed of the cars during the race, but this is one race - more than most others - where race lap record is, I think, way out of reach.

I'd actually be surprised if we get better than a 1:36. If you look at 2011 where pole of 1:33 was faster than 2010 (2010 fastest lap isn't applicable because of rain), the fastest lap was a 1:38. I think we'll get a significantly better Pole time than 2011 - given Australia's 2017 pole was better than 2004's and 2004's china Pole was a 1:32 - but still I think we're talking 36's.

[godlameroso]

Pole will be in the 1:31's high 30's maybe, add 4.5 seconds and fast race lap will be 1:36 to high 1:35's. Flat through turn 7 & 8, or just 7? How deep into turn one before they have to break?

[roon]

How deep into turn one before they have to break?

Honda specifically?

[godlameroso]

Anyone.

[zibby43]

Certainly would not disagree there but I have a very clear idea in my mind that Ferrari are learning from Mercedes and turning their power down in practice, especially with the 4 engine restrictions this year, so I think it's dangerous to use practice as a definitive comparison, although it is still useful of course.

Qualifying is the key for me- if Ferrari get within a quarter of a second of Merc, who we know have a quali mode engine like no other, then the race paces will be very, very close.

I agree. The future qualifying sessions will be of the utmost importance.

Although Melbourne is a bit of an outlier, it looks like overtaking will be difficult this year. Furthermore, it looks like we are in for more one-stoppers this year.

Accordingly, if Bottas continues to improve his qualifying pace and Hamilton can preserve the nearly three tenths advantage he has over Vettel, then Merc locking out the front row could prove to be a massive advantage going forward. I don't know if Kimi was suffering from poor setup alone, but he needs to step up his qualifying and race pace substantially.

[zibby43]

Outpacing Merc in 2016 at Melbourne? Don't remember that. They were more then 8 tenths behind in qualis and couldn't shake of Merc in race trim (lewis had horrible luck).

Ferrari jumped Mercedes at the start of the race and had a comfortable lead until the Alonso crash/Red Flag.

During the Red Flag period, Mercedes took advantage of the free pit stop, put on the Medium tires and finished the race without any additional stops. Ferrari remained on the SS, which proved to be a major mistake.

[Mandrake]

How deep into turn one before they have to break?

Honda specifically?

Well, the more straight you go into turn one, the easier it is to break. Ultimately in the tires obviously. Not limited to Honda though.

[isullivan]

I think it will be a Mercedes 1-2 qualifying and race and p3 for Ferrari.