Which team will be first to dethrone Mercedes? Speculation

[raymondu999]

you do realise that Toto owns 1/3 of the the Mercedes right? Why would he suddenly switch to AM and de-value his investment? ( and yes, I know he is a minor investor in the AM project too)

I don’t think Toto owns prt of the team. He owns part of the car company — which does not own part of the team; afaik.

a team who they supply the entire car with the exception of the external aero surfaces

That surely stops after 2021. Every team to their own tech departments then

[raymondu999]

Other than that, the look of things suggests Red Bull is the closest, but a historic lookback suggests Ferrari to pull their finger out for a couple of years again.
They have the funds, the pull to get the personnel and the clout to 'suggest' to the FIA/ F1 a suitable direction of development.

Wrt funds — surely that doesn’t matter post budget cap?

[dans79]

I don’t think Toto owns prt of the team. He owns part of the car company — which does not own part of the team; afaik.

He owns part of the team.
https://www.mercedesamgf1.com/en/team/m ... oto-wolff/

Less than a year later, Toto was announced as managing partner of the Mercedes-AMG F1 Team in January 2013 after purchasing a 30 per cent stake of Mercedes-Benz Grand Prix Ltd.

https://www.mercedesamgf1.com/en/team/l ... /brackley/

Mercedes-Benz Grand Prix Ltd., the company that runs the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team, aims to achieve significant year-on-year reductions of its CO2 footprint in the coming years.

[Fulcrum]

The last time a customer-engine team won the championship was not so long ago, namely Brawn GP in 2009, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a McLaren or Aston Martin win, but this would surely coincide with a massive rule change, so 2022 seems the only likely time for this set of events.

For 2021 I'd rank Red Bull as having the highest chance, followed by Ferrari, then Renault.

I'm also interested to see how Hamilton performs this year. He isn't getting any younger, and the effect of aging isn't linear in high-level sport. Hamilton didn't look that flash after his bout with COVID either, so he'll want to come out strong at the beginning of the year.

[dans79]

The last time a customer-engine team won the championship was not so long ago, namely Brawn GP in 2009, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a McLaren or Aston Martin win, but this would surely coincide with a massive rule change, so 2022 seems the only likely time for this set of events.

Yea, but Merc didn't have a works team in 2009. One of the reason McLaren switched to Honda was because Dennis and others felt they would never win as a customer team. here is a nice little quote and explanation that explains why.

https://www.grandprix247.com/2018/07/05 ... r-mclaren/

McLaren continued with MB power as a customer team until 2015 when they announced that with the new Hybrid engine regulations and being unhappy at paying for their Engines as customer team, they entered into a ten-year deal with Honda who were returning to F1 again as an engine supplier. Ron had been quoted as saying ‘You can’t win in F1 as a customer team’ which was somewhat true.

Designing a car around an engine was much better than designing a car and then having to change it to make the engine work. Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button were signed when apparently Ron Dennis wanted McLaren Young Driver Kevin Magnussen as Alonso’s partner and Ojjeh wanted Button.

In other words the engine will always be designed to work best with the works team aero and suspension philosophy. Customer teams have to adapt as best they can to this fact. That's why Racing point did so well last year, they tried to copy everything they possibly could.

[the EDGE]

The last time a customer-engine team won the championship was not so long ago, namely Brawn GP in 2009, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a McLaren or Aston Martin win, but this would surely coincide with a massive rule change, so 2022 seems the only likely time for this set of events.

Yea, but Merc didn't have a works team in 2009. One of the reason McLaren switched to Honda was because Dennis and others felt they would never win as a customer team. here is a nice little quote and explanation that explains why.

https://www.grandprix247.com/2018/07/05 ... r-mclaren/

McLaren continued with MB power as a customer team until 2015 when they announced that with the new Hybrid engine regulations and being unhappy at paying for their Engines as customer team, they entered into a ten-year deal with Honda who were returning to F1 again as an engine supplier. Ron had been quoted as saying ‘You can’t win in F1 as a customer team’ which was somewhat true.

Designing a car around an engine was much better than designing a car and then having to change it to make the engine work. Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button were signed when apparently Ron Dennis wanted McLaren Young Driver Kevin Magnussen as Alonso’s partner and Ojjeh wanted Button.

In other words the engine will always be designed to work best with the works team aero and suspension philosophy. Customer teams have to adapt as best they can to this fact. That's why Racing point did so well last year, they tried to copy everything they possibly could.

McLaren was Mercedes works team team in 2009, they supplied the engines and part-owned the team

Yes it was different to the actual Mercedes team from 2010 & that is when McLaren said they couldn’t win as a customer team

However true at the time, that has now moved on as the rules are now very strict. Teams must get equal engines, run in the same settings and have access to the same fuels & lubes

If a customer does a better job with the 22 rules, there is every possibility they will beat the supplier team

[dans79]

However true at the time, that has now moved on as the rules are now very strict. Teams must get equal engines, run in the same settings and have access to the same fuels & lubes

If a customer does a better job with the 22 rules, there is every possibility they will beat the supplier team

That still doesn't help you though if the engine is designed for a very specific aero suspension philosophy. Think RBR vs force india from a few years back. The had completely different design philosophies and would require engines with different characteristics to get every ounce of performance out of them.

[the EDGE]

However true at the time, that has now moved on as the rules are now very strict. Teams must get equal engines, run in the same settings and have access to the same fuels & lubes

If a customer does a better job with the 22 rules, there is every possibility they will beat the supplier team

That still doesn't help you though if the engine is designed for a very specific aero suspension philosophy. Think RBR vs force india from a few years back. The had completely different design philosophies and would require engines with different characteristics to get every ounce of performance out of them.

True, but I do t expect Mercedes engine to change much over the next few years so Williams, RP & McLaren will have plenty of time to design the right chassis for the engine

Don’t get me wrong, I do t think any will beat Merc, but I don’t see being a customer an issue any more

Renault are the manufacture, they’ve been beat by their customer teams 6 years out of 7

[PlatinumZealot]

In the days of V8 all the engines fit basically the same way into the cars. They Brawn swapped engine make on a shoe string budget the way they were so similar. The only car with slightly wonky installation was Ferrari who ran an engine pitched forward by a degree or two to raise the gearbox for some psuedo rake. If my memory serves...

[Ringleheim]

For 2021? No team will unseat Mercedes.

For 2022? Ferrari has the best shot at it I think, but only if they have turned a corner as an organization. We won't know if they have until 2022 gets here.

[wowgr8]

Whenever it happens (2023 and beyond IMO) I don't think it will be Red Bull or Ferrari

[GalacticHitchHiker]

I have a hard time getting onboard with Ferrari being the team to unseat Mercedes because they have been runner up from 2015-2019 while spending the most on the grid. For 2022 they won't be able to spend their way out of their problems, which has been their greatest advantage in the past.
If Red Bull is able to close a deal to keep the Honda power unit (A very big if) I think they will be the ones to beat Mercedes some day.

[Slo Poke]

RedBull... and they’ll do it this year,.. with the assistance of Honda. Who themselves received assistance via RedBull Racing Advanced Technologies. There! That should scotch a lot of pointless debate.

[Scorpaguy]

Nobody dethrones Merc...they simply quit as a constructor team and remain in F1 only to forever haunt the record books.

[Slo Poke]

Nobody dethrones Merc...they simply quit as a constructor team and remain in F1 only to forever haunt the record books.

I can remember a time when Merc were Nobody. A hard material fact I can also recall, is when Hamilton signed up to drive for them someone somewhere asked about his sanity..!